Last week (September 2-september 8), the A-share market rose in an all-round way, once standing at 3000 points. Throughout the week, the Shanghai Composite Index, small and medium-sized board index and gem index rose by 3.93%, 5.01% and 5.05% respectively. Behind the stock index’s continuous closing of Wuyang, funds going north also continued to flow in, with a net purchase of 28.009 billion yuan last week, a record high.
In addition, the central bank’s RRR reduction and S & P Dow Jones officially included 1099 A shares, which injected a shot in the arm for a shares. In terms of liquidity, internal and external forces, market sentiment is more positive than that in the early stage, and 160 million shareholders are waiting for the opening of a shares!
So, in one of the many positive, how will A-Shares perform? Fund King sorted out the latest strategic analysis of ten securities companies for investors’ reference. Generally speaking, securities companies have a positive attitude towards the future market of a shares, and the voice of watching more “swipes the screen”.
several heavy profits look good
positive one: the RRR reduction is expected to release about 900 billion yuan of long-term funds
On September 4, Premier Li Keqiang presided over the executive meeting of the State Council to deploy accurate policies and strengthen the “six stability” work. On September 6, the people’s Bank of China announced that the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions would be reduced by 0.5 percentage points (excluding financial companies, financial leasing companies and auto financing companies) from September 16, 2019.
In addition, in order to promote greater support for small and micro enterprises and private enterprises, an additional targeted reduction of the deposit reserve ratio by 1 percentage point for urban commercial banks operating only in provincial administrative regions was implemented twice on October 15 and November 15, with a reduction of 0.5 percentage point each time.
According to the central bank, the RRR will release about 900 billion yuan of long-term funds, including about 800 billion yuan of comprehensive RRR and about 100 billion yuan of targeted RRR.
positive 2: included in the S & P Dow Jones index, and A-Shares added allocation funds
In the early morning of September 7, the S & P Dow Jones index was included in the A-share list and officially announced. The list includes 1099 A shares, including 147 large cap stocks, 251 medium cap stocks and 701 small cap stocks. It is estimated that the overall Chinese market (including a shares, Hong Kong shares and overseas listed Chinese stocks) accounts for 36% of the weight of the index.
On September 23, after the implementation of A-share inclusion, the S & P Dow Jones index will consider further “improving the inclusion factor” in the future. In addition, the Russell FTSE index will also enhance the inclusion factor of A-Shares on September 23.
According to the agency’s calculation, the admission scale of foreign capital brought by the three indexes this year is expected to reach 100 billion yuan, and A-Shares will usher in a period of intensive allocation of foreign capital.
good three: it is expected that the three central banks will cut interest rates in turn, and the global easing will be more clear
In Europe, the economic slowdown and low inflation continued, and easing expectations further increased: the probability of the European Central Bank cutting interest rates by 10 / 20bps in September implied by the OIS in the eurozone reached 54% / 46%.
In the United States, Powell’s latest speech in Zurich was partial to doves, and the US manufacturing PMI in August fell below the boom and bust line for the first time in three years. The non farm data in August was less than expected: fedwatch showed that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates by 25bps in September was still as high as 91%.
China’s RRR reduction does not restrict the space for subsequent interest rate reduction. It is expected that the MLF interest rate will be reduced by 10-15bps in late September. This means that in the next few weeks, the central banks of the world’s three major economies will successively cut interest rates to clarify global monetary easing.
positive four: market risk appetite
Some institutions pointed out that the important opportunity of 2019h2 market is near “10.1”, and there is a good opportunity to improve risk appetite in the market.
top ten securities companies look into the future
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : A-Shares are expected to continue to rise, which is expected to hit the early peak of the year
The Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) strategy team believes that the market’s concern about China’s policy has been significantly improved, and the policy strength is not weak in the near future; In the next few weeks, the central banks of the three major economies are expected to cut interest rates in turn to clarify the expectation of global easing. In addition, although the turning point of trade problems and corporate profits still needs time to be confirmed, the margin has improved. The four major concerns will be gradually clarified. From breakthrough to momentum, A-Shares still have upward momentum.
In addition, the team believes that after the Shanghai index breaks through the 2800 ~ 2900 range, it is expected to continue to rise, which is expected to hit the early peak of the year in this round of rise.
In vertical comparison, the implied risk appetite of A-Shares is still at a low level; In horizontal comparison, the valuation quantile of A-Shares in major global indexes is relatively low: the risk of A-share stock funds in the future is expected to increase, while foreign capital will still maintain a stable and high net inflow. It is estimated that the profit growth of all A-Shares in 2019 and 2020 will be 6.0% and 10.4% respectively. With the policy momentum and the improvement of enterprise profit expectation, the valuation switching will further open the upward space of the index.
In terms of configuration, the team suggests:
1. From the perspective of foreign capital preference for maximum incremental funds, it is suggested to continue to take financial and consumer blue chips as the bottom position;
2. From the perspective of seeking the inflection point of global liquidity and strengthening the elasticity, focus on the repair market of undervalued banks and infrastructure leaders;
3. Continue to pay attention to the sectors whose performance is expected to improve month on month in the second half of the year, such as white power faucet, automobile and parts, pharmaceutical business, etc.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : the prospect of the second wave of bull market rise is more clear
The Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) strategy team believes that the era of equity investment and financing in China has kicked off, and the asset allocation of institutions and residents will be biased towards a shares. Short term repeated consolidation is ready for the second wave of bull market rise. At present, the prospect of the second wave of bull market rise is more clear, and one of the two conditions has been made clear.
The team believes that the end of market adjustment into the second wave of bull market rise requires the resonance of fundamentals and policies. At present, from the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held on July 30, the macro policy expression is more positive, emphasizing that “the downward pressure on China’s economy is increasing” to the central bank’s RRR reduction on September 6, the policy has changed significantly, and the fundamentals are likely to catch up with the bottom. It pointed out that from the three stages of the bull market, the driving force of the second wave of bull market rise will be transformed from the valuation repair of the first wave of rise to the valuation profit. At this stage, the performance differentiation among industries is based on the profit, and the valuation rise is more obvious in industries with steep profit rise. Davis double-click will lead the rise and become a leading industry.
The team pointed out that the rise of the Shanghai Composite Index from 2733 points is more likely to be the starting point of the second wave of bull market rise (that is, even if the market repeats in the future, the probability of being significantly lower than this low point is low, which is the low point of emotional panic). At present, the policy is relatively warm, the market rally continues, and it is still necessary to closely track the fluctuations of US stocks and the third quarterly financial report data in the future, In the early stage of the second wave of bull market rise, the market may still repeat. Strategically optimistic, tactically progressive and patient layout. Continue to be optimistic about technology and securities companies in the medium term.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) : the market logic switches from the main line of profit restoration to risk promotion. Pay attention to the style switch at the end of the year
The Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) strategy team believes that the logic of the current market should be re examined: switching from the main line of profit recovery to risk boost. From the three-month dimension, we should pay attention to the valuation switching at the end of the year. The team pointed out that based on the data review since 2010, it is found that there are obvious rules in the size and style of the fourth quarter of each year. The probability that SSE 50 is better than CSI 500 is 67% (excluding the bull market in 2015, the probability is 75%), and the absolute income advantage of banks is more obvious. There are two reasons behind it: 1) at the expectation level, in the economic downturn cycle, the growth concern of the next year will ferment abnormally at the end of the year, and waiting for the leader will become the first choice; 2) At the transaction level, when the assessment pressure of all parties comes at the end of the year, the leader with small group fluctuation and high division of labor is the preferred strategy.
In addition, in its view, the third winner should pay attention to the style switching at the end of the year and actively layout the new“ β”。
1 bank. Not only the historical advantage at the end of the quarter, it believes that with the clear recovery trend of market profits bottoming out, the improvement of profit quality in the whole market will improve the overall asset quality, which will lead to the rise of its valuation corresponding to the repair of bank non-performing rate. At present, it is the time for LPR reform to reduce the interest margin and fully ferment the bank’s profit expectation, and it is also the best time for the layout of banks.
2. Building materials. The next unexpected source – special debt will be a key fire to stimulate construction and building materials.
3. Media. The low base effect under the impairment of high goodwill and the style switching effect brought by profit restoration will be superimposed. With the event catalytic promotion, the media opportunities will be realized gradually.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) : a thousand gold can’t buy a cow
On January 6 this year, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) released “global risk on, A-share spring agitation opens” and turned to bullish A-share market. In January, the “two facts” and “one transformation” of promoting A-share risk on came from “easing of global liquidity tightening” and “improvement of China’s credit expansion expectations”, and “one transformation” came from the improvement of risk appetite brought by “marketization of supervision”.
The team believes that the current “two facts” and “one transformation” are gradually confirmed, and the A-share mini version Q1 is in progress.
It pointed out that the transmission law of broad-spectrum interest rate, social finance bottom and inventory cycle to the bottom of profit indicates that the bottom of A-share profit will appear in Q3. China’s economic downturn and increasing employment pressure promote the overweight of countercyclical hedging policy. It is expected that the “spark breaks the autumn cold” of finance before currency. The current environment is similar to the direction of double clicking inside and outside Q1, but the strength is inferior. The “2 + 1” factor drives the A-share Mini Q1. It is suggested to configure the main line of broad-spectrum interest rate downward + profit expectation improvement (early cycle), such as waiting for science and technology and infrastructure chain.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities: A-Shares are expected to reach a new high and achieve the goal of 3500 points
The Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) strategy team believes that after the merger of interest rates, the central bank will implement the third round of RRR reduction this year, credit easing and interest rate reduction will be gradually realized, the bottom of profits can be expected, and A-Shares are expected to reach a new high and achieve the goal of 3500 points.
From the perspective of industry configuration:
First, with the arrival of the second stage of the bull market, securities companies will constitute the best industry. In the long run, China’s economic development will be directly financed, and the capital market reform will also be good for securities companies in the long run.
Secondly, with the decline of interest rate, economic transformation, the valuation level of long-term growth stocks has been improved faster, superimposed with the improvement of profit expectation, which is optimistic for a long time.
Third, with loose credit, lower interest rates and greater countercyclical efforts, there are also good opportunities for some cycles (such as chemical industry and automobile) with low valuation and reversal of difficulties.
Fourth, consumption has also become the main demand for endogenous growth, which is also a direction worthy of long-term adherence.
Fifth, after the decline of interest rates, the allocation value of the high dividend sector also has a new attraction for fixed income investors.
Generally speaking, the team suggested that the top priority should be given to recommending the configuration of securities companies and technology, adding cyclical products such as chemicals and automobiles with reversed difficulties, adhering to consumption and high dividend varieties, so as to achieve a bumper harvest in the golden autumn.
Anxin Securities: when the autumn market has not been cashed
Since the beginning of the year, the Shanghai index has increased by more than 20%, and the gem index has increased by more than 35%. From the perspective of CITIC’s primary industry index, the indexes of food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, electronics and other industries have increased by more than 50%, which makes a considerable number of investors have a certain “fear of heights” and a strong tendency to cash in earnings.
The strategy team of Anxin Securities believes that in the next stage, the capital market may continue to be in a state of low interest rate and shortage of high-quality assets, and the valuation of equity of high-quality listed companies with stable profits or dividends will be strongly supported. More importantly, there are still a lot of a shares, and the valuation level of many industries is below the historical average. There will still be a lot of investment opportunities for a shares, which are worth exploring. In addition, the recent policy increase as scheduled is an important change since the Politburo meeting in April. It is expected that the combination of broad currency + positive finance will continue to work, and the autumn market is not in a hurry to cash in.
Secondly, for the expected height of the short-term index, the team believes that it should not be too radical. Objectively speaking, compared with the spring market, the downward pressure of the global economy and the market’s expectation of the bottom of the economy are different. Recently, a variety of factors also have a certain impact on China’s inflation expectation.
Generally speaking, the team believes that when the autumn market has not been cashed in, it can also actively look for opportunities for some high-quality companies with relatively backward early performance. However, as the market is getting better, investors should maintain a reasonable income expectation in the follow-up, and should not be too restless to catch up.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : grasp the attack opportunity of “index breaking through the previous high point”
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) the strategy team believes that at the current time point, it is true that the external environment and internal growth transformation are still under pressure, and the disturbance caused by external risks at different stages should not be underestimated, but the vitality brought to the market by reform measures and policy catalysis should not be ignored, and we should actively grasp the opportunity. It is suggested that under the structural market, investors can be gradually optimistic and the emerging growth is full of flexibility.
In addition, the expectation of liquidity easing has increased, the risk appetite of China, the United States and the National Day has increased in the past 70 years, and the structural market is gradually expanding. The market has shifted from strategic defense to strategic attack, and the strategic attack opportunity of “advancing into Dabie Mountain 2.0” is staged as scheduled, so as to grasp the attack opportunity of “index breaking through the early high point”.
At the configuration level, the team believes that big innovation + securities companies are the main source of income at this stage.
First, major innovation directions represented by emerging growth, such as TMT (independent and controllable, industrial chain, 5g), high-end manufacturing (new energy vehicles, military industry).
Second, market warming, RRR reduction and other catalysts, a large financial sector represented by securities companies.
Third, in the medium and long term, investors should distinguish between “true” and “false” core assets, play a steady and steady way, attract funds from the bottom, make reasonable fixed investment, “fight the short with the long”, focus on high-quality targets and grasp the pricing power of core assets.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) : continue to grasp the bottom configuration opportunity
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) the strategy team believes that the improvement of short-term market liquidity helps to improve risk appetite. The longer-term significance lies in the gradual formation of the pattern of “tight credit, wide finance and loose currency”, which helps to open the space for the decline of long-term interest rate and promote the growth of stock index in the future. It pointed out that in the future, the deflationary effect brought by external uncertainty will reduce the pressure of structural inflation. The market has entered the fourth stage of “weak data and loose policies” again. In the future, the risk premium is expected to continue to decline and the market liquidity is improved, which will become the driving force of the market rise.
The team pointed out that combined with historical statistics, the market usually has considerable positive returns within half a month and one month after the RRR reduction, and the benefits of China Securities 500 and gem are more obvious. At present, the market is still in the bottom configuration period. It is suggested to continue to hold positions patiently, reduce game sentiment and maintain a positive attitude. Structurally, it can be equipped with cars with high cost performance and recovery trend, as well as small and medium-sized enterprises (5g, semiconductor, information security and financial technology) benefiting from loose policies, and pay more attention to securities companies, cycle and military industry in the short term.
Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) : the rally of the leader will not end in a short time
Looking forward to the future, the most important change in September is that the policy is expected to be further relaxed, including monetary policy and fiscal policy, which is also the focus of the market. At present, in the world’s major economies, the vast majority of countries except China and the United States have entered the era of negative interest rates, and the phenomenon of “asset shortage” reappears, which is an important reason to support the rising price of equity assets.
From the perspective of market performance, the A-share market has shown a typical leading white horse market since the beginning of the year. The team pointed out that the market rally for leaders in the market will not end in a short time, because under the current background of low growth and low inflation, the world is already in a loose currency cycle and low interest rate environment, Moreover, this state is expected to last for a long time. The long-term low interest rate will improve the valuation of equity assets, and the overestimation of leading enterprises comes from the market’s valuation premium on their profit stability.
The team suggests focusing on three main investment lines:
First, it is expected that the future market characteristics may spread, that is, from the “value leader” with very good roe but expensive valuation to the “invisible champion” of some second-line varieties;
Second, for domestic high-tech high growth companies with clear replacement direction, the downward interest rate is better for high growth overvalued companies than low growth undervalued companies;
Third, undervalued companies that are expected to achieve high dividend yield in traditional industries.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) : is getting better | it is expected to deduce the Q1 market this year
Core view: ① the peripheral uncertainty shows signs of easing, and the probability of single moth event in a short time is small; ② In September, the passive capital allocation of A-Shares brought by the two major international indexes totaled about US $5 billion, and the northbound capital continued to flow into a shares, which can be expected; ③ “RRR reduction” reconfirmed the start of China’s wide monetary cycle. It is expected that the subsequent (mid and late September) central bank’s reduction of MLF interest rate is a high probability event, which will contribute to the rise of A-share valuation; ④ We continue to be optimistic about the golden market of A-Shares in September. We tend to see that the market will gradually become active and the trading volume of A-Shares will be enlarged. The subsequent A-Shares are expected to repeat the market in the first quarter of this year. We suggest that investors continue to maintain a positive strategy for the trend of a shares; ⑤ In terms of industry configuration, while the stock prices of the traditional consumer sector are differentiated one by one, we are more optimistic about the follow-up performance of the “5g, semiconductor, computer” and “brokerage” sectors. In addition, we also suggest paying attention to the “automobile and parts” sector.
future research and judgment > >
Zhang Yidong: confirm the “golden pit” as scheduled and start the autumn market
Yang Delong: multiple favorable policies escort A-Shares out of the independent market
Anxin strategy Chen Guo: “comprehensive reform experiment” is ready to go, paying attention to national reform opportunities
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities: 3500 points for the implementation of the spirit of the national Standing Committee
New era strategy: reducing reserve requirements and hitting the key of short positions can be more radical as appropriate
Haitong strategy Xun Yugen: the prospect of the second wave of A-share bull market is more clear, and continue to be optimistic about technology and securities companies
Click to view > > > September A-share market investment guide. The latest release of ACE institutions and the release of top experts
(China Fund News)
