Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : open the last long window of the year, and the index is expected to hit the previous high of
China and the United States reached partial consensus in the negotiations, the Federal Reserve relaxed more than expected, and the external environment improved; The gradual implementation of the policy will stabilize China's fundamental expectations: long is still the choice of most investors. A-Shares are still in the channel of the second round of rise. Internal and external factors jointly catalyze the monthly rebound, opening the last long window of the year, and the index is expected to hit the previous high of the year.
In terms of allocation, it is suggested to take the core varieties in finance and consumption as the bottom position and continue to recommend the varieties that are undervalued and benefit from economic stabilization; In addition, with the spread of the market, we can strengthen the layout of varieties exceeding the expectations of the third quarterly report.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : at present, the turnaround run is in the layout period
① Learning from history, the Shanghai Composite Index near 2733 is the starting point of the second wave of bull market rise. Corresponding to the three waves of wave theory, the logic is that corporate profits bottomed out and rebounded, and economic profits increased.
② Response to the market's doubts about profitability: first, the inventory replenishment is greater than 13 years, and the production capacity cycle is at the bottom. Second, there is no need to worry about the impact of the decline of real estate investment, and infrastructure and consumption will be hedged.
③ At present, the turnaround run is the layout period. The market acceleration needs to confirm that the fundamentals and policy orientation are good. It is often driven by banks. The end of the year and the beginning of the year is a window period, and the medium-term technology and securities companies are better.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities: the golden autumn slow bull market has entered a shock stage
It is expected that corporate profits in the third quarterly report of 2019 are still in the process of bottoming down. Inflation will hinder the decline of interest rates and the valuation level will gradually enter a balanced state. The progress made in Sino US trade negotiations has become the driving force for the rise of the market. In this case, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities believes that the golden autumn slow bull market has entered a shock stage.
In the process of interest rate phasing into equilibrium, the sectors with undervalued value, excellent performance and good cash flow will dominate. Therefore, leading companies in banking, real estate, utilities, transportation and even cycle industries will continue to dominate. Looking forward to Q1 in 2020, after the CPI peak in the Spring Festival, the interest rate will continue to decline, and the spring market will reinterpret the technology and consumption market. Therefore, in the medium and long term, it is still the main line of science and technology and consumption. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading companies represented by science and technology 50 and consumption 50.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : continue to be optimistic about the market
1) With the warm wind blowing outside China, risk appetite is expected to further. After China's National Day military parade, national self-confidence improved; Overseas Sino US trade releases warm wind.
2) The Fed officially purchased treasury bonds and repurchase, and the world entered the loose expectation sequence for reconfirmation.
3) The chip structure is excellent, creating a good micro foundation for market attack. It is suggested that investors continue to be optimistic about the market, eliminate the false and retain the true in combination with the third quarterly report, and select carefully. Grasp the "stagflation" plates such as financial and real estate leaders, the offensive elastic direction of great innovation and scientific and technological growth, and the switching opportunities of real and core asset valuation.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) : harvest in autumn and hide in winter. Use the good to switch from overestimated plate to underestimated plate
"Autumn harvest and winter storage" continued to switch from high valuation plate to undervalued plate by taking advantage of short-term benefits. "Don't be aggressive when warm" switches to the preferred configuration of the undervalued plate.
Making use of the fluctuations of overseas non core contradictions to make the core decision of A-Shares - "autumn harvest and winter storage, undervalued value to make up for the rise". Taking advantage of the short-term good, continue to switch from the high valuation sector to the undervalued sector. The rise of pig price and the easing between China and the United States will delay the pace of easing, and the resistance of high / low relative valuation from the historical extreme value to the central return will become smaller. As an observation option, "whether the economy can stabilize" will trigger the further expansion of the range of style switching. "Inflation" determines the relative income investors prefer the undervalued sector, and continue to recommend the undervalued optional consumption (real estate, household appliances and automobiles), Patiently wait for the opportunity to digest the valuation and medium-term layout of high boom varieties.
Anxin Securities: in the transition period from structural bull market to comprehensive bull market
The short-term market focus will still focus on the three quarterly reports. In the next stage, the A-share market can be compared with February to June 2014, which is in the transition period from a structural bull market to a comprehensive bull market. During the transition period, the market as a whole is dominated by shock, and tactically, it will moderately increase its attention to the undervalued sector.
Industry focus: home appliances, medicine, food, wind power, banking, electronics, etc. theme suggestions focus on self-control, state-owned enterprise reform, etc.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) : continue to hold positions patiently
The A-share market stabilized and rebounded this week. High frequency data show that financial data are expected to continue the good trend in August, supporting corporate profits.
In the future, the short-term market is expected to rise due to sentiment, but China's stagflation pressure is difficult to be fundamentally resolved, which determines that there is limited room for a significant upward trend in the short term. It is suggested to continue to hold positions patiently. The current market valuation is reasonable and the policy is expected to remain loose. If the market is adjusted due to accidents, it can actively increase its positions.
Structurally, small and medium-sized enterprises have benefited from the decline of risk premium, and the prosperity of communication and electronics related industries has continued to improve. They can continue to allocate additional funds after significant adjustment in the near future; Third, pay more attention to certainty during the verification period of quarterly reports, and still recommend standard configuration of food and beverage, medicine and banks with high certainty, so as to maintain the configuration of the automotive industry whose fundamentals are expected to rebound; Infrastructure and small metals are the focus of the cycle.
Guosheng Securities: strengthening long window
Do multi window re strengthening. Trade negotiations exceeded expectations, and the logic of being optimistic about long windows continued to be deduced: 1) economic growth is resilient. In September, the official manufacturing PMI rebounded, and Caixin PMI rebounded for three consecutive months. 2) China's policy easing continues. 3) External easing continues to land and is expected to continue. Following the resumption of repurchase by the Federal Reserve on September 16 after a lapse of 10 years, on October 11, the Federal Reserve announced to extend the repurchase plan again until January 2020, and expand its balance sheet at a rate of $60 billion per month from October. Moreover, with the continuous deterioration of U.S. fundamentals, the probability of U.S. interest rate cut in recent October has increased significantly from about 40% to more than 80%. Therefore, continue to be optimistic about the long window.
In terms of industry, we can focus on two directions: 1. Trade negotiations exceed expectations and focus on the electronics, communications and other sectors most affected by them. 2. The third quarterly report is coming, and we pay attention to the certainty of performance. Attention: 1) wind power photovoltaic. 2) Semiconductor. 3) Car.
Minsheng Securities: the results of trade negotiations exceed expectations, and A-Shares are expected to break through the long-term pressure
In the short term, significant progress has been made in trade negotiations, which is expected to promote A-Shares to break through the long-term pressure. The twists and turns in the process of Sino US trade negotiations have a great impact on the A-share market and China's exports to the United States. However, on the whole, investors have fully expected the repetition and long-term of China US relations, and the impact of China US relations on market risk appetite tends to weaken marginally. From October 10 to 11, China and the United States held the 13th round of trade consultations, reached phased agreements and made significant progress, which is expected to help improve global risk appetite and promote A-Shares to break through long-term pressure.
In the medium and long term, we continue to be optimistic about the current allocation value of a shares:
① Monetary policy: the expansion of the Federal Reserve's table was opened, the global easing trend was further confirmed, and the expectation of the central bank's interest rate cut was heated up again;
② Profit cycle: judging from the profit cycle, inventory cycle, credit cycle, technology cycle, PPI trend and other factors of a shares, the report confirms the bottom of profit, and it is expected to continue to improve in the third quarter;
③ Asset allocation: the stock bond spread is at an extreme position, sending a timing signal;
④ Regulatory cycle: since the beginning of the year, the policy has frequently released the signal that the Department attaches great importance to and cares for the capital market;
⑤ Market value management: under the pressure of lifting the ban, the power of industrial capital market value management is expected to provide internal support for the upward market.
The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) Securities: the long window in October is still open, and the third quarterly report is the main line
The long window is still in, and the third quarterly report will be the main line. The short-term long window is more driven by events and emotions. The event driven determines that the best opportunity in October is not in the index, but in the structure. In the short term, bullish financial stocks benefit from the rebound of inflation expectations and the failure of loose expectations; In the medium term, we are still optimistic that consumption (medicine, food and beverage) and growth (electronic and independently controllable computer software in domestic substitution) will benefit, and the third quarterly report will exceed expectations.
(brokerage China)
