Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) pointed out that China's financial cycle continues to decline, and the general direction of "tightening credit" remains unchanged in 2020. The recent improvement of individual meso indicators does not mean that the fundamentals have improved. Short term upward inflation does not hinder the loose currency, but the amount of "water" is subject to the trend of the property market. It is expected that the infrastructure will improve slightly in 2020, but the inventory cycle may take time to start, and the economic growth will continue to slow down. The highlight is the conversion of kinetic energy of light and heavy asset industries. International experience shows that the asset light industry performed relatively well in the second half of the financial cycle, and there are similar signs in China. In 2020, China's capital market may "avoid the important and get the light".
From the general direction of the whole year, both the international experience in the second half of the financial cycle and the preference of overseas investors for the A-share asset light industry mean that the opportunities of the asset light industry may be more sustainable. The capital interest margin calculated by us indicates that there is room for the decline of treasury bond interest rate, especially in the second half of 2020, the interest rate direction may be clearer, and the credit risk of heavy asset industry may be greater than that of light asset industry.
(Securities Times)
