Since the new year, A-Shares have jumped high, but they have continued to fluctuate around 3100 recently. Investors are worried about whether the market can continue in spring. On the one hand, investors have risen too much in technology stocks since last year; On the other hand, some market participants believe that there is no obvious sign of reversal in economic fundamentals. In this regard, the chief economist of Great Wall Fund told Weida that he still adheres to the previous view and is optimistic about the market in the first quarter.
Xiang Weida pointed out that at present, there are four positive changes in the A-share market that deserve investors’ attention: first, the investment and output environment of the manufacturing industry has been initially stable, at the same time, the organizational structure of most industries has been significantly improved, and the rapid decline in economic growth in the past two years is also possible to stabilize; Second, the macro policies since the fourth quarter of 2018 have shown relatively strong flexibility and advancement, and the efforts to stabilize growth have continued to increase; Third, the pace of market-oriented and legal reform of the financial market and capital market has been significantly accelerated, and the Central Bank continues to guide the decline of the financing cost of the real economy and the interest rate of the financial market through LPR; Fourth, the external disturbance has shown obvious signs of easing recently.
Xiang Weida said that the positive changes in these four aspects have greatly improved the confidence of investors. Although the A-Shares continued to fluctuate after breaking 3100 points, the market hot spots are very active, the funds going north are still flowing rapidly, the rhythm of small and medium-sized retail investors entering the market is accelerating recently, and the issuance of public funds is very popular. Generally speaking, the market in spring is expected to continue.
Xiang Weida believes that the prosperity of high-tech related industries such as electronics, communications, computers and media is still recovering, while industries such as automobile, chemical industry and light industry are approaching the inflection point. Building materials show a pattern of simultaneous increase in volume and price. The valuation of cyclical industries such as banking, real estate and steel is still at the bottom of history. Generally, the market risk is small, and investors can continue to be optimistic, Structurally, it continues to focus on high-quality growth stocks in TMT, focusing on new energy vehicles, consumer electronics, semiconductors and integrated circuits, and media.
(China Securities Network)
