Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : the stock market decline caused by the epidemic is just a buying opportunity
Haitong macro Jiang Chao believes that the decline in the stock market caused by the epidemic is precisely an investment opportunity. Although the economy may slow down due to the impact of the epidemic in the first quarter, the stock market fell and the bond market rose. However, in fact, China’s economy has shown signs of bottom recovery in the fourth quarter of 19. After the second quarter of 2020, the epidemic will be effectively controlled under normal circumstances. Coupled with the recovery of post disaster demand, China’s economic growth is expected to recover to about 6%. At that time, the stock market is expected to recover its lost ground, and the interest rate of government bonds will rise again.
Xun Yugen said New Coronavirus’s infection with pneumonia will not change the bull market trend. “Historically, the end of the bull market came from a major turning point in policy or fundamentals. The impact of the epidemic on fundamentals is similar to that of SARS in 2003. It is short-term. The epidemic will affect the rhythm of the bull market. After a short-term sharp decline in the market, it still needs time to consolidate and digest, and wait for the epidemic to be controlled and the support of subsequent fundamental data.” He called for firm confidence and patience. The peak of new cases of the epidemic corresponds to the bottom of market panic, and the epidemic does not change the medium-term ranking of industry performance.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities: investors are advised to pay attention to long-term treasury bonds and grasp short-term oversold equity assets
Under the influence of the epidemic, the economy will be significantly affected and liquidity will remain loose. Bond assets will be relatively dominant. It is recommended that investors pay attention to long-end treasury bonds. In the stock market, if there is a significant decline in the market, we suggest investors to pay attention to the oversold equity assets on the basis of risk prevention. From the experience of Hong Kong market, computer, power and public utilities, national defense and military industry and other industries are less affected. In addition, it is recommended that investors grasp the short-term oversold equity assets from the perspective of performance.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: look at the epidemic from a different perspective, and unanimously anticipate what amendments may be required
The development of the epidemic is an objective fact, and the trend of the stock market depends on the expected changes of objective events. At present, the market is expected to go down first and then up. We believe that: 1) the “down” time will be shorter than expected; 2) The decline breeds greater opportunities. The core judgment comes from four perspectives. From the four perspectives, we believe that the index adjustment space is 5%, which will be completed quickly and enter the bottom building stage. It is suggested to pay attention to the opportunities bred in the decline.
perspective 1: historical revival: Global Centennial influenza. Historically, there are three conclusions: 1) historically, the influence time is 6-24 months; Reach the peak in about 3-6 months. 2) Historically, stage shocks have dominated without changing the market trend. 3) Historically, the decline of A-Shares was basically completed in two months, with a decline of no more than 10%. Based on this push, the falling space is about 7.5% (which is also the source of consensus expectation of the market).
perspective 2: possible policy hedging should not be ignored. According to our forecast, the maximum negative impact in the first three quarters of 2020 will be about – 1.2%, – 0.4% and 0%. However, we should also pay full attention to the key year 2020. It is expected that the impact of monetary, fiscal and industrial support policies will form an effective hedge.
perspective 3: equity risk premium (ERP) or undervalue 4-5%. For SARS and H7N9, A-Shares ERP tend to rise first and then decrease, and the highest increase is about 1%. Under the neutral assumption, we expect the equity risk premium to rise by 1%, and the interest rate and reserve requirement reduction will drive the risk-free interest rate down by 0.5%, which means that the ERP will rise to 5.88% and the index PE will decline by 4-5%.
perspective 4: the performance reference significance of FTSE A50 needs to be narrowed by 2-3%. Due to the impact of external events in the past two years, the direction guidance of FTSE A50 is effective, but the amplification of emotional momentum is also obvious in history. Historically, the decline space of FTSE A50 Index often exceeds that of Shanghai Composite Index by about 2% – 3%.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) : the peak of the epidemic is a “watershed” for stabilizing market performance
During the Spring Festival holiday, affected by the continuous fermentation of the New Coronavirus epidemic, overseas markets and risky assets were generally under pressure and the risk assets were sought after. In the 10 years, the US debt approached the low of 1.5% in September last year, which made 3m10s hang upside down again, and the real interest rate returned to the negative range and hit a new low in May 2013. At the same time, the inflow of funds into the stock market slowed down, and the outflow of funds from the United States and emerging countries, especially South Korea, was obvious, with the return of bonds. On the whole, during the Spring Festival, bonds > stocks > bulk stocks under dollar pricing; VIX bulls, bitcoin, major bonds and gold lead; South Korea, Hong Kong stocks, copper and Brazil lag behind. At the sector level, US stocks rose only in retail, utilities and software services, while semiconductors, energy and transportation fell sharply.
In addition to the epidemic and the resulting market fluctuations, there are some other important events worthy of attention in the overseas market during the Spring Festival, such as the formal withdrawal of the UK from the legal process (January 31), the interest rate discussion of the Federal Reserve’s FOMC in January (January 30) and the European Central Bank, the impeachment process of the US president, the US general election, the fourth quarter performance period of US stocks, etc.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : “epidemic pit” how to become a “winner of value investment”?
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) Zhang Yi, chief strategic analyst, still maintained the judgment of “restraining first and then increasing in 2020 and looking more all year round”. The probability of extreme situations is low and the subsequent downward space is not too large; 1) The epidemic risk in late January only brought forward the adjustment of the originally predicted “late spring cold” market, and did not change the judgment of the medium-term market – first restraining and then rising in the whole year, and “making a dojo in the shell of a snail” in the first half of the year; 2) Looking forward to the future, the A-share and Hong Kong stock markets may be trapped in “epidemic concerns” in the short term, but the probability of extreme situations is low and the downward space is not too large. Based on fundamentals and risk appetite, the market twists and turns caused by the epidemic in 2020 should not be deeper than the adjustment in mid-2019.
Strong wind knows strong grass. Advanced manufacturing industry is most likely to become the “winner and loser of value investment”. Since new year’s day, especially the performance of A-share and Hong Kong Stock Industry in the epidemic stage, has verified the priority recommendation of core assets of advanced manufacturing industry.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : February is the “golden pit” on the way to “well-off cattle”
The impact of the epidemic on the macro economy in the first quarter will be greater than that in the SARS period. It is expected that the economy will gradually recover in the second quarter. There is no need to be overly pessimistic about the economy of the whole year. The policy response is expected to take the underpinning / rescue as the starting point, the monetary force is fast, and the fiscal force is accurate. Based on the comprehensive economic impact, policy response and the industrial structure characteristics of a shares, the impact on the earnings of A-Shares in 2020 is expected to be less than that on the economy. The short-term adjustment caused by the epidemic is expected to be less than the decline in peripheral markets during the Spring Festival. In terms of rhythm, it is expected that the rapid adjustment will end in a week. February will become the “golden pit” on the way to the “well-off cow”, which is the best allocation time point of the year. With the gradual return of the economy to the right track in the second quarter, the “well-off cow” will be officially opened around the “two sessions”, with both short-term trading and long-term allocation opportunities.
Founder Securities Co.Ltd(601901) : focus on early strong industries and epidemic prevention related industries in the short term
Restrain first and then raise, layout and growth. In the short term, the epidemic will affect economic growth expectations and risk appetite. On the one hand, the outbreak of the epidemic has reduced economic activities, affecting enterprise construction, consumption activities and service industries such as transportation, catering and tourism. The economic impact in the first quarter of this year was about 0.5% – 1%; On the other hand, after the spread of the epidemic, group concerns increased and market risk appetite decreased. Referring to the trend of global stock markets and bulk industrial products during the Spring Festival, A-Shares will make up for the decline to a certain extent. From the interpretation of the epidemic situation, the inflection point of short-term panic needs to be confirmed in combination with the inflection point of new confirmed cases and new suspected cases. Academician Zhong Nanshan said in an interview that an inflection point of the epidemic situation may be seen before and after the Lantern Festival. The follow-up focus is on the introduction of counter cyclical hedging policies. With the continuous efforts of counter cyclical policies to stabilize economic expectations, the market is expected to rise again.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) : short term disturbance is a rare opportunity for long-term funds to buy undervalued stocks
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) pointed out that under the current situation, the epidemic is still spreading, and some disturbances are inevitable in the short-term market. In the medium term of about one quarter, it is necessary to observe the impact of the epidemic on economic fundamentals. If we focus on the long-term goal of more than one year, the impact on the market can be ignored. The short-term disturbance is a rare opportunity for long-term funds to buy undervalued stocks.
Industry comparison: appropriately add medicine, temporarily avoid retail tourism transportation, and online consumption deserves attention.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) : the impact of the epidemic on the market may be phased and does not change the plate style of the market
Based on the market performance during SARS, the impact of the epidemic on the market may be phased and does not change the plate style of the market. When the epidemic situation escalates, the anti falling industries may be early strong industries (technology stocks) and medicine. The turning point of the market may occur when the epidemic situation begins to ease, when the periodic layout oversold and rebounded. However, after the epidemic, the market probability still follows the original boom main line, that is, the market of science and technology stocks.
The trend of science and technology industry is the most important main line in 2020. In addition to consumer electronics, specific configuration industries also include new energy vehicles, PCBs, photovoltaic, panels, media, etc.
new era Securities: the first impact of the epidemic has no trading value
The impact of the epidemic on the index is undoubtedly negative, but we believe that if it is only based on the current epidemic data, its first impact may have no trading value after the low opening of the market after the festival.
Because the concerns and concerns about the epidemic situation during the festival have been fully spread, the low opening after the festival can basically fulfill the concerns during the festival. What is really valuable is whether the impact of this epidemic on the economy will be much larger than that of the 2003 SARS. If so, there will be a second shock. If not, the market may stabilize after the first shock. Due to the influence of the extension of the holiday, the observation time point of whether the second shock occurs is the middle of February. From a longer-term perspective, since the current valuation center of A-Shares is much better than that in 2003, the trend of continuous improvement in the profits of various industries is far from over. The probability of this epidemic will not change the logic of the rise of the index center in 2020.
(brokerage China)
