Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : incremental funds seek “depression”, and the market still has power
There are positive changes in the current epidemic situation and the importance of stabilizing the economy is increasing. It is expected that there will be more relay of monetary, fiscal, short-term unconventional policies and capital market reform measures in the future. The resumption of work this week entered a critical verification period, and the slow recovery can be expected under the full force of the policy.
It is expected that with the resumption of work, the downward revision of economic expectations will come to an end, and the incremental allocation of funds will find “depressions” and relay with momentum funds repeatedly. Driven by policies and incremental liquidity, the market is still driven upward. Technology is still the main line throughout the year, and adjustment is the allocation opportunity. From the perspective of risk return ratio, focus on the rotation opportunities of securities companies, automobiles, real estate, upstream industrial products, building materials and banks.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : the bull market pattern remains unchanged, but the rhythm has changed
① The bull market pattern remains unchanged throughout the year, but the rhythm has changed. The market still needs time to digest the impact of covid-19 pneumonia on short-term fundamentals, strengthen confidence and be patient at the same time.
② Based on the experience of 19 years, the market has structural opportunities when the market fluctuates. Industries with poor macro data but abundant liquidity and high prosperity have excess returns.
③ During the consolidation period, science and technology industries are expected to be dominant. The central government’s policy to hedge the epidemic includes releasing the emerging consumption potential related to science and technology, and finally entering the bull market. When the three waves, the advantages of securities companies will reappear.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities: market probability enters equilibrium shock
Under the background of no secondary outbreak of the epidemic, the market probability has entered an equilibrium shock, and the short-term upward and downward space is limited. This time, the Standing Committee of the political bureau clearly put forward the requirements for striving to achieve various goals, reflecting that in the key period of building a well-off society in an all-round way in 2020 and the end of the 13th five year plan, stabilizing economic growth will become the key direction of the policy, and looks forward to the subsequent tax reduction and fee reduction, the pull of special debt investment and the moderate easing of monetary policy.
In terms of industry configuration, we will continue to pay attention to three main lines. (1) The main line of scientific and technological innovation, transformation and upgrading, and cloud computing, medical informatization, new energy vehicles and other sectors are recommended. (2) In the main line of counter cyclical regulation, there are certain opportunities in infrastructure related building materials, cement, chemical and other cyclical industries, as well as machinery and construction industries, which are expected to obtain absolute benefits. (3) After the demand is compressed, it will return to the main line, including real estate and completed industrial chains, such as real estate, home appliances and household appliances.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : the relaxation of refinancing helps the growth of great innovation and is optimistic about the head of A-Shares
Compared with the draft for comments in November, the new regulations on refinancing slightly exceeded expectations, and the gem benefited more. The decision-making level, the Ministry of finance, the first bank and the two sessions issued various policies and measures to stabilize growth and support the resumption of production. The market’s short-term risk preference and sentiment are expected to continue to improve, continue to maintain a positive attitude towards the market and grasp the growth opportunities of great innovation and technology.
In the medium term, with the gradual introduction of monthly and quarterly economic data, the fundamentals will disturb and affect the market and make the market twists and turns. Now we see that the policy arrangements to promote the resumption of work and production, promote the construction of major projects, increase emerging consumption, meet necessary consumption and stabilize automobile consumption have played a positive role in the repair of economic fundamentals. However, there is a process from the policy to the actual effect, and then to the complete repair and stabilization of investors’ fundamental expectations. This is a “good time” for investors to carefully select “good stocks” and actively layout “good track”. However, under the guidance of the “Quartet” of national attention, resident allocation, institutional allocation and global allocation for a long time, we continue to be optimistic about A-share chief Niu.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) : the bottom of A-Shares has been found, and continue to pay attention to scientific and technological growth
The capital market has gradually developed from the “early digestion” of the epidemic to the “middle and late digestion”. After the covid-19 epidemic entered the “digestion period”, with the introduction of policies such as steady growth + counter cyclical adjustment, investors’ expectations for economic growth improved, the over falling sectors in the early stage will make up for the rise one after another, and the cumulative growth increase is relatively higher. If liquidity is “no longer so” loose, the cycle + consumption sector will have periodic excess returns. However, the industry performance in 2003 shows that the event impact usually does not change the logic of the strong plate in the early stage. After the epidemic subsides, it will still return to the medium-term main line. This year is still the growth of science and technology.
The bottom of A-Shares is now, and we continue to pay attention to the growth of science and technology. The liquidity of A-Shares in the “middle and late stage of digestion” of covid-19 epidemic is still a key factor in the market. In the short term, it is necessary to closely track the marginal change of short-term interest rate.
Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) : implement new refinancing regulations and pay attention to counter cyclical adjustment
The implied growth expectation of the market valuation has been repaired to a reasonable level of about 5%. The coal consumption of the power group shows that the resumption of work is in progress, but the return rate of the Spring Festival is still low, which can not rule out the twists and turns of the improved epidemic. It is expected that the short-term liquidity will remain abundant, but we need to pay attention to the constraints of inflationary pressure. It is not recommended that short-term trading funds play excessive games. It is advisable to continue to hold positions patiently and continue to buy long-term funds. Since March, the market will face the test of economic data. Therefore, in the later stage, we need to pay more attention to the direction and strength of policy countercyclical adjustment. Infrastructure development and stabilizing residents’ consumption may be important starting points.
Compared with the exposure draft, the new refinancing deal mainly raised the proportion limit of non-public offering shares from 20% to 30%, relaxed the time point of “new and old division”, and significantly improved the flexibility of fixed increase fund-raising. The overall revision is beneficial to small and medium-sized start-ups. Shortening the lock-in period and modifying the issue price mechanism can improve the enthusiasm of fixed increase participants and the success rate of the project, reduce the threshold of non-public offering on the gem, and benefit unprofitable enterprises. However, it should be noted that the pressure of fixed increase or decrease in the later stage may increase. In terms of configuration, pay attention to the industries whose fundamentals are still good after the impact of the epidemic, as well as the industries benefiting from counter cyclical regulation. In terms of consumption, continue to pay attention to the structural opportunities of medicine and the online consumption field to alleviate the impact of the epidemic, and pay due attention to the cars that may benefit from counter cyclical regulation in the future; The TMT sector as a whole continues to be optimistic, and the contactless economy may usher in a medium – and long-term opportunity for development; The construction period can focus on building materials, machinery, chemical industry and other industries related to infrastructure construction.
Tianfeng Securities Co.Ltd(601162) : it is estimated that the scale of private placement in 2020 may be 1-1.2 trillion
In the short term, for the market, it may be different from when the refinancing exposure draft was launched in November last year. At that time, the market risk appetite was very low, and the market sentiment immediately reflected the increase of stock supply, so A-Shares fell in the short term. However, the current market environment is that “excess liquidity has pushed up risk appetite”, and the short-term sentiment may more reflect the benefits to small and medium-sized stocks and securities companies.
Considering that it takes a period of preparation time from policy relaxation to the implementation of additional issuance, it is preliminarily predicted that the scale of directional additional issuance in 2020 may be about 1-1.2 trillion. In this case, it undoubtedly increases the stock supply in the market and forms a certain pumping effect. Combined with the overall calculation of capital, the overall judgment for 2020 is still a structural market, or a bull market for “a small number of companies”. However, the bull market driving force of “a few companies” is already switching (from consumption valuation migration to technology industry cycle). At the same time, the prosperity of technology stocks in a few companies will also spread within the industry.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) : with sufficient ammunition, brokerage technology continues to benefit
1) According to the data from the interest rate observer, the interest rate level of the Federal Reserve meeting is expected to remain unchanged in March, but may be cut once in April;
2) Increasing downward pressure on the economy and increasing the intensity of counter cyclical regulation: the central bank carried out open market operations beyond expectations. The subsequent MLF interest rate and LPR approximate rate on February 20 decreased;
3) The “deregulation” of refinancing of listed companies was officially implemented. The main focus of the revision of the new refinancing regulations is to moderately loosen the refinancing on the gem;
4) Taking history as a mirror, A-Shares in February over the years have the characteristics of a typical “restless spring” market, and are dominated by the style of science and technology stocks;
5) At the current time point, the market is still positive. Focus on two main investment lines. 1) Dig deep into the main line of U.S. stock mapping and allocation under emerging industries, such as “apple industry chain, electric vehicle industry chain, cloud games, security and controllability”; 2) Benefit from the brokerage sector with gradually active primary and secondary markets.
YueKai Securities: securities companies benefit the most from the deregulation of refinancing
Compared with the exposure draft in November 2019, the new refinancing regulations are adjusted as follows: (1) if a listed company applies for non-public offering of shares, the number of shares to be issued shall not exceed 20% of the total share capital before this offering to 30% in principle; (2) At the confirmation time point of the new and old cross, it is adjusted from obtaining the approval to the actual completion of the issuance; (3) It is emphasized to strengthen the supervision of illegal acts of “public shares and real debts”. From the perspective of fundraisers, small and medium-sized enterprises with strong profitability benefit the most, and are optimistic about TMT industry and biomedical science and technology innovation companies. From the underwriter’s point of view, the brokerage sector benefited the most.
There are three possibilities in the follow-up trend: first, the index is strong and continues to expand upward; Second, after quickly covering the gap, the market enters the consolidation stage; Third, the index may be adjusted technically, but the range is limited.
Guosheng Securities: the two-way expansion of the bull is breeding
The industries that benefit most from the deregulation of refinancing are growth industries (TMT, medicine) and some midstream industries (mechanical equipment, electrical equipment, chemical industry and public utilities). At the same time, on the one hand, this policy adjustment drives the recovery of enterprise refinancing demand and provides business increment for securities companies and investment banks, thus bringing performance improvement. On the other hand, it will enhance market activity and promote the long-term health of the market. Therefore, the brokerage sector will benefit in the short and long term.
Medium and long-term, two-way expansion of long cattle is pregnant. Deregulation and refinancing is bound to attract medium and long-term funds from various institutions and industrial capital to accelerate their entry into the market and provide them with access opportunities and channels. Thus, the whole capital market will usher in the two-way expansion of the chip end and the capital end, and with the gradual improvement of the registration system, exit mechanism and other system construction, the capital market will be more healthy and mature and better serve the entity. In the medium and long term, it is an inevitable trend to enhance the importance of the capital market. At present, the market is still at the bottom of the long cycle, and the two-way expansion of longcattle is in the process of breeding.
investment strategy > >
Haitong strategy Xun Yugen: the bull market pattern has not changed, and the market structure during the market consolidation period is obvious
CICC strategy: focus on the short-term undervalued value cycle rebound, medium and long-term layout of new economic leaders
Xing Zheng global strategy Zhang Yidong: “buffalo” is an illusion. “Recovery” requires patience
Qianhai open source fund Yang Delong: GDP growth picked up quarter by quarter, and A-Shares continued the trend of slow bull and long bull
(brokerage China)
