Recently, affected by multiple factors, the global market has fallen sharply, and the A-share market has also continued to adjust.
Can A-Shares get out of the independent market? When will the investment time come? Does the investment logic of technology stocks change after adjustment? Has the investment value of core assets been presented? On the issues concerned by the market, the reporter of Shanghai Securities News interviewed the heads of the three departments of active equity investment of GF - Liu Gesong, general manager of growth investment department, Fu Youxing, general manager of value investment department, and Li Wei, head of strategic investment department.
Liu Gesong: technology stocks are still the main direction
Last year, Liu Gesong of GF ranked among the top three in terms of equity fund performance, and his judgment on the market attracted wide attention.
"For a shares, the impact of the epidemic is on the numerator. There are also factors such as industrial policy and liquidity at the denominator. It is expected that hedging policies will be introduced in the future." Liu Gesong analyzed that there are structural opportunities for A-Shares this year, one of which is new infrastructure, such as 5g, data center and cloud computing; The other is the independent and controllable industrial chain, including semiconductors, computers, operating systems, etc.
In Liu Gesong's eyes, the above main line is the medium and long-term main line of the market. In addition, the epidemic may bring about changes in lifestyle, and consumer goods with reasonable valuation also have opportunities.
Liu Gesong believes that there are two reasons for the recent adjustment of science and technology stocks: first, the previous short-term increase was relatively large; Second, affected by the epidemic, the demand for consumer electronics and other consumer demand have also been impacted. However, through the analysis of upstream and downstream data of the industrial chain, it is found that although the performance growth expectation of some industries originally optimistic has been reduced, the prosperity of the science and technology industry is still upward, but the curve is not as steep as originally expected.
Liu Gesong believes that at present, the situation of epidemic prevention and control in China continues to improve, and some high-quality companies can come out first with the advantage of a complete industrial chain.
Liu Gesong believes that it is a better time to allocate A-Shares in the medium and long term. In the future, the marginal impact of changes in overseas epidemic data on China will be reduced, and A-Shares will go out of the independent market.
"Theoretically, consumption will slowly recover and economic activities will gradually recover in the second half of the year. In this process, market risk preference will be improved, liquidity will be better, corporate profits will slowly recover, and there will be good investment opportunities." He said that starting from the internal value and pricing level of high-quality enterprises, there are still structural opportunities in the capital market, but the middle volatility will be relatively large.
Fu Youxing: A-Shares have valuation advantages
"Put safety margin first." Fu Youxing said that at present, the implied rate of return of A-Shares is high. From the horizontal and vertical point of view, A-Shares are at the low valuation level.
According to the comparative analysis, taking Pb as the valuation index, the latest Pb of Wande a index is 1.7 times, while the historical average since 2006 is 2.5 times; Taking PE as the valuation index, the latest PE of Wande a index is 17.3 times, and the historical average since 2006 is 21.6 times.
Fu Youxing further analyzed that it is estimated that if we do not consider the fermentation of overseas epidemic and only consider the impact of China's epidemic, the growth rate of net profit attributable to the parent company of Listed Companies in the first quarter fell by 9.4% and the growth rate of net profit in the whole year rose by 3.7%. Even considering the impact of overseas epidemic, the PE valuation expected for A-Shares in 2020 is not expensive.
"In addition to the valuation advantages, the operation quality and cash flow of advantageous enterprises have been greatly improved, which is an important basis for me to be optimistic about the medium and long-term performance of a shares." Fu Youxing said that great changes are taking place in many industries in the survey. With the supply side reform of the industry, inferior enterprises gradually withdraw, the market share of superior enterprises continues to increase, and the profitability is also in the rising channel.
In the medium and long term, he believes that on the basis of maintaining a stable economic aggregate, the trend of internal integration in the industry will continue, the market share will further concentrate on leading enterprises, and advantageous enterprises will usher in the best operation period. Based on this, under the background that the market valuation is at a medium and low level and the policy turns to support the capital market, he suggests selecting enterprises with high industry prosperity, good industry competition pattern, high enterprise profitability and sustained growth, which are expected to achieve a better return on investment.
As for this year's configuration, he suggested paying more attention to areas where the industry boom or product demand is less affected by the macro cycle, such as TMT and medicine, and trying to choose companies with matching industry profit growth performance and relatively high safety margin, as well as mandatory consumer products less affected by the epidemic.
Li Wei: the biggest impact stage of the epidemic has passed
"The stage with the greatest impact of the epidemic has passed. At present, it has entered a better medium and long-term layout time point." Li Wei said that the recent A-share market trend more reflects the concerns of investors.
Li Wei is optimistic about two types of subdivided assets in the field of science and technology: first, chip design companies in the semiconductor field have large development space, good enterprise card positions, strong competitive barriers, and the stock price is at the stage of high cost performance. Even if the subsequent profits will be affected to a certain extent, the absolute value has been slowly reflected; Second, the computer industry is partial to domestic demand. Both the demand side and the supply side are in China. Paying customers are mainly educational, pharmaceutical and other institutions, and the demand is relatively stable. In the context of the epidemic, on the one hand, relevant enterprises increase investment, on the other hand, the epidemic is boosting the Internet and online office methods, and there will be better investment opportunities in the future.
As for the consumption sector, Li Wei believes that we should look at it separately. First, durable consumer goods, mainly automobiles and household appliances, will have a certain impact on enterprise profits due to the impact of uncertain factors, the shrinkage of financial assets and the reduction of future income expectations. At the same time, policies encourage consumption, depending on whether the company itself has a unique alpha. We should find varieties with higher safety margin and higher investment cost performance. Second, the demand for luxury goods is relatively stable and has little impact. Third, the demand for mass consumer goods is not affected by the epidemic, and there is still an increase in demand in some categories. Driven by the two factors of consumption upgrading and industry concentration, a number of excellent leading companies will come out.
Based on this, he suggested that the allocation idea is divided into three main lines: first, companies related to epidemic prevention and control in the computer, mass consumer goods and medicine sectors; Second, the TMT industry chain's growth and valuation match the varieties, such as design companies in the electronics sector, new energy vehicles and consumer electronics; The three is the consumer goods, such as Baijiu, which are highly correlated with the economic cycle.
"At present, the A-share market is not necessarily at the lowest point, but it has entered the long-term bottom area, which is a better time point for medium and long-term layout." Li Wei concluded.
(Shanghai Securities News)
