Last week, the three major A-share indexes continued to repair the market, and both reached a new high since April on Friday. At the same time, the capital side also continued to release positive signals. The cumulative net inflow of northward funds throughout the week exceeded 30 billion yuan, the fourth time in history that the net purchase amount in a single week exceeded 30 billion yuan.
Institutional analysis believes that a stable RMB exchange rate environment and fundamental “replenishment” will continue to attract foreign capital return. With the strengthening of momentum at the macro policy level, capital resonance is expected to drive A-Shares upward.
the net purchase of northbound funds in a single week exceeded 30 billion
Last week, the total net purchase of A-Shares by northbound funds was 30.022 billion yuan, the fourth time in history that the net purchase amount in a single week exceeded 30 billion yuan. The first three times occurred in November 2018, November 2019 and February 2020 respectively.
Historical data show that when the net purchases of the first three northward funds exceeded 30 billion yuan in a single week, the A-Shares rose twice in the following week, while the A-share market rose in the following two weeks.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said that the global capital reallocation process has been fully started. According to the data of emerging market fund research company EPFR, the cross-border capital outflow from emerging markets has improved, and the comparative advantage of A-Shares in emerging markets is obvious.
In the short term, a stable RMB exchange rate environment and fundamental “replenishment” will continue to attract foreign capital. In the medium term, thanks to China’s effective epidemic control, huge market scale and stable sovereign credit, the weight of China’s capital market in the current round of global capital reallocation will be systematically improved.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) analyst Dai Kang recently released a research report that foreign capital is expected to return to normal net inflow in the near future. The flow of foreign capital has certain reference significance and inspiration for the allocation of A-share industry, but it is not the leading factor of A-share. At the present stage, domestic and foreign capital just resonates. On the one hand, after the resumption of foreign capital inflow, its heavy position stocks can often outperform the market; On the other hand, domestic investors also tend to choose domestic demand industries that are less dependent on the global supply chain.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : a new round of rising starts
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) the strategy team frankly said that the bottom inflection point of A-Shares has been confirmed, and the consensus on the rise will gradually gather. The “second-order inflection point” of the epidemic in Europe and the United States is basically clear, the bottom of China’s fundamentals has also been clear, and China’s policy has been continuously strengthened. Concerns about the admission of OTC funds will be further reduced, and the resonance of capital admission will drive the strong upward movement of a shares.
On the main line of specific allocation, global capital reallocation, policy driven “replenishment” of China’s fundamentals, and capital resonance driven by foreign capital and industrial capital are the three most important drivers of this round of A-share rise. Investors are advised to follow the capital rotation closely and pay attention to three main lines:
First, pay close attention to the infrastructure sector with relative stagflation in the early stage under the follow-up catalysis of policies. Secondly, find flexibility from the leaders of the science and technology sector, focusing on the main lines such as 5g, cloud computing and new energy vehicles. Third, adhere to the domestic demand driven combination with low proportion of overseas business income, independent import of upstream supply chain / raw materials and strong annual performance uncertainty.
Guosheng securities suggested paying attention to the cycle and technology sectors that are more sensitive to liquidity and risk appetite. On the one hand, counter cyclical adjustment will be further overweight, expanding domestic demand will become an important direction of policy hedging, and real estate, infrastructure and other sectors will benefit; On the other hand, scientific and technological growth is still the main line in the medium and long term. After the previous adjustment, the hyperinflation of scientific and technological growth has been fully digested, and the position structure or relative valuation have been significantly optimized. Subsequently, with the centralized release of industrial policies such as risk preference restoration and new infrastructure, the science and technology growth sector will also usher in a new round of upward movement.
Outlook:
Haitong strategy Xun Yugen: two signals are needed for the emergence of trend opportunities
Anxin strategy Chen Guo: panic repair technology is still the main line of elastic attack
monarch strategy Li Shaojun: the improvement of short-term liquidity margin should still focus on potential risks
GF strategy Dai Kang: the “risk premium top” of A-Shares gradually confirms that technology stocks benefit more
Xingzheng strategy Wang Delun: the market dances with the spring breeze of the policy, and the industry configuration “goes at two ends”
Click to view > > > the latest A-share market investment guide
(Shanghai Securities News)
