The covid-19 pneumonia epidemic and the sharp drop in crude oil prices are stirring up the global political and economic situation and have a great impact on the capital market. So, what are the opportunities for the stock market in the next few months?
From April 21 to 24, China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) securities 2020 spring investment strategy meeting was held online with the theme of "sailing against the current". China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Zhang Anyuan, chief economist of securities, Huang Wentao, CO head of research department and chief of macro fixed income, and several industry chiefs took turns to share their views on topics such as global and China's economic trends and "gold digging" opportunities in the stock market in the second quarter. Chinese journalists from securities companies sorted out the main points for readers.
the chief executives agree that this year's GDP target is not very important to investors. It is very important to grasp the rhythm because we can foresee that the policies in the second and third quarters are strong and belong to the golden period of stock investment; U.S. stocks have continued to rebound recently, but the current valuation is not consistent with the fundamentals. There may be large room for adjustment in the future. It is not recommended to continue to win the upward earnings of U.S. stocks at the current position.
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Zhang Yulong, chief of securities strategy, suggested that A-share investors continue to hold the necessary consumer sectors (especially pharmaceutical stocks) and allocate some real estate at the same time. At the same time, infrastructure (including new infrastructure and old infrastructure) is an important starting point of this year's policy, in which there are many good investment opportunities.
Huang Wentao believes that from the perspective of various economic indicators, the world has stepped into the financial crisis. The next step is to observe whether the credit default of American enterprises and individuals occurs on a large scale. At present, we need to pay attention to three overseas risk points: the first is the rise of debt default rate, the second is the sharp redemption of stock ETF, the third is the appreciation of the US dollar, the depreciation of exchange rate and capital outflow in emerging markets, and the risk of sovereign debt default in emerging markets.
Zhang Anyuan believes that after the epidemic, there will be no significant changes in the geopolitical pattern of the world and the pattern of industrial division of labor in China. In terms of China's policy, Zhang Anyuan specifically mentioned that cash distribution for specific groups is worth looking forward to.
Ding Luming, chief research officer of securities financial engineering and major asset allocation funds, suggested that the A-share gem be over allocated, believing that the main board would restart the second wave of rebound in May. It is believed that science and technology is the core theme of the whole year, and the large market value industry focuses on real estate and securities companies.
It should be noted that the chief executives also admitted that the stock market may be volatile this year, making it more difficult for investors to operate. Zhang Anyuan bluntly said, "it is difficult to see a definite direction in the second quarter of a shares."
Zhang Yulong: optimistic about essential consumption, real estate and infrastructure
Zhang Yulong, chief analyst of securities strategy, analyzed the A-share investment strategy in the second quarter of this year, which is a topic of great concern to the market. He believes that although the GDP growth rate in the first quarter was negative 6.8%, from the perspective of structure, it will still find good investment opportunities in some sub fields, but it also suggests some risks.
In terms of the economic performance of various industries, agriculture, finance, it and other industries achieved positive growth in the first quarter. Does this mean that these industries can still be held at the current position? Zhang Yulong said that, specifically, the most important contribution of agricultural growth is the high operation of pork prices. With the recovery of the number of sows on hand, pork prices have gradually dropped from the high level, which means that there are not many opportunities for agriculture since the second half of this year; Although the financial industry, especially the banking industry, has a relatively stable high dividend, it also faces a large risk of bad debts during the economic downturn, which needs careful consideration; It is a relatively good choice.
Most industries achieved negative growth in the first quarter, of which accommodation and catering, transportation and construction industries suffered the most serious decline, but there were not no investment opportunities. Zhang Yulong believes that after experiencing a sharp decline in the early stage, if there is a retaliatory rebound in the later demand of these industries, there will be investment opportunities. It can be found that the hotel catering industry has rebounded recently, especially since last week.
From the perspective of investment, fixed asset investment has actually picked up since March, mainly reflected in the real estate industry. Although the real estate industry has been suppressed, in fact, the valuation level of this industry is very low, the dividend level is really high, and the overall liquidity is relatively loose. It is suggested to continue to hold the necessary consumer sectors, especially pharmaceutical stocks, and allocate some real estate at the same time.
Infrastructure construction is an important starting point of this year's policy. In absolute terms, the old infrastructure is still the focus of stabilizing the economy, which greatly promotes the whole high-speed railway industry, urban rail transit construction and regional economic construction; The investment opportunities for the new infrastructure are very clear. The high valuation in the early stage has been adjusted, and the cost performance has been restored. The seven major areas of new infrastructure are good investment directions, especially UHV and charging pile of new energy vehicles.
Under the background of negative growth in the first quarter, the annual GDP target has attracted much market attention. We believe that if the economy maintains normal growth in the last three quarters, that is, the growth target of 6.5% is achieved every quarter, the annual economic growth rate will be 3%; If the subsequent economic growth slows down, the annual economic growth may be about 2%. In any case, the second quarter to the third quarter are likely to be the biggest stage of the year-on-year economic improvement, which belongs to the golden period of stock investment.
As for US stocks, US stocks have continued to rebound recently, and the dynamic P / E ratio of S & P 500 has increased rapidly. The current dynamic P / E ratio of the S & P 500 is 19.3, basically the same as that at the end of February and the beginning of March, close to the average level since 1990 (20.4). We believe that with the support of the continued expansion of the Fed's table, the valuation of US stocks has returned to the level before the liquidity crisis in March. Under the prospect that the consequences of the subsequent economic recession show a downward revision of profits, the current valuation is not consistent with the fundamentals. Even if U.S. stocks rebound again due to abundant liquidity, it is undoubtedly a chestnut in the fire to continue to win the upward earnings of U.S. stocks in the current position.
Huang Wentao: one foot has stepped into the financial crisis. We should pay attention to three overseas risk points
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Huang Wentao, CO head of securities research and development department and chief analyst of macro fixed income, gave a speech on the theme of macroeconomic outlook in the second quarter: sailing against the current. He said that in the past three months, the global economy, politics, society and markets have been disturbed by the two covid-19 epidemics and the two black swans of the crude oil slump, which have had a great impact on the global politics, economy and capital markets. From the perspective of various economic indicators, the world has stepped into the financial crisis. The next step is to observe whether the credit default of enterprises and individuals in the United States occurs on a large scale.
At present, we need to pay attention to three overseas risk points: the first is the rise of debt default rate, the second is the sharp redemption of stock ETF, the third is the appreciation of the US dollar, the depreciation of exchange rate and capital outflow in emerging markets, and the risk of sovereign debt default in emerging markets.
China's GDP growth rate in the first quarter was - 6.8%. In view of the spread of the global epidemic, the GDP growth rate in the second quarter is predicted to be 3-4%. It is possible to achieve an economic growth rate of about 3% throughout the year, but it is not easy to achieve. I personally believe that the GDP target this year is not very important to investors. We just need to know that the worse the GDP in the first quarter, the stronger the policy behind it. For investors, the grasp of rhythm is more important.
From the perspective of monetary policy, interest rate reduction policy is imperative; In fact, fiscal and quasi fiscal policies are short-term and fast policy tools for steady growth, and should play the role of the main force in the whole second and third quarters. Among them, the urban investment and financing policy will continue to be relaxed.
Zhang Anyuan: China's industrial division pattern will not change in the short term
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) the theme of Zhang Anyuan, chief economist of securities, is "change and invariance in the post disaster era". The main question is, what impact will the epidemic have on the world political and economic pattern and China's industrial pattern?
Zhang Anyuan believes that after the epidemic, the symmetrical impact will not change the geopolitical pattern. The impact of the epidemic on the world is symmetrical and undifferentiated. There is no place outside the world. The epidemic does not infect only one country but not others. The balance of power between the two countries was balanced before and after the epidemic.
In view of the recent phenomenon of industrial return, Zhang Anyuan said that the judgment of anti globalization acceleration is worth studying, and the epidemic will not lead to changes in China's industrial division of labor. Over the past 30 years, China's industrial agglomeration scale in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta has been world-class, and the scale of relevant infrastructure and industrial investment has been around RMB 1 billion. This agglomeration is not the result of industrial policies, but the endogenous industrial correlation based on the market's own factors, and will not change greatly due to the epidemic. As for potential substitutes such as Vietnam, the impact of the epidemic is also symmetrical. Under the current situation, the changes in China's economic and financial situation are still unknown.
Is the US financial market facing the risk of a new round of turmoil? Zhang Anyuan believes that at present, the liquidity crunch in the United States has been partially alleviated, and the Federal Reserve and the Ministry of finance are doing their best to avoid the rupture of the social credit chain. However, the stabilization and rebound of the stock and bond market will not be smooth, especially in view of the unprecedented market performance of oil prices in the near future, there may still be a new round of large fluctuations in US stocks.
In terms of China's policy, Zhang Anyuan said that the cash distribution of specific groups is worth looking forward to. Since economic growth and wealth creation are currently stagnant, it is more urgent to rely on changes in fiscal policy to adjust income distribution. He suggested that governments at all levels issue cash or consumption vouchers, provide subsidies for target groups or specific commodities, and individual income tax return and reduction. But this is not easy to be good for the market.
Finally, Zhang Anyuan also mentioned his views on the equity market and said frankly that "it is difficult to see a definite direction in the second quarter of a shares." He also believes that from February 21 to now, the correlation between U.S. stocks and A-Shares is very strong, and the correlation coefficient reaches 91% at the highest time. If there is another round of fluctuations in U.S. stocks in the future, it is difficult for A-Shares to be alone. However, it may continue the previous trend, such as US stocks falling 10% and A-Shares falling 2%.
"the real benefit to the A-share market may be in the second half of this year. This is not only consistent with seasonal factors, but also consistent with the economic recovery and China's policy cycle." Zhang Anyuan said.
Ding Luming: the A-share main board may rebound again in May. It is recommended to over configure the gem
Ding Luming analyzed the operation of A-Shares in the second quarter and the Trend Outlook of major global assets on the morning of the 22nd. With regard to a shares, he suggested focusing on the over allocation of A-share gem, being vigilant against the extreme impact of the first quarterly report on the A-share main board. He believed that the main board market would undergo a short-term consolidation before the end of April and restart the second wave of rebound in May. In terms of industry configuration, science and technology is the core theme of the whole year. Large market value industries focus on real estate and securities companies. Their common feature is that interest rates are down.
Ding Luming's prediction of US stocks is slightly different from the above view. He believes that the repair of panic in the return of US stock valuation has been completed (the first rise), and the second rise will start after the third quarter. The U.S. stock index after continuous and substantial adjustment is mainly due to the dual concerns of the direct impact of the epidemic and the market worried economy and the domino potential impact. With the stimulation of the historic policy of the United States, the 20% decline in panic has been basically corrected, and the remaining 20% needs to wait for the economic recovery after the actual resumption of work in the United States. It is expected that the rebound rhythm will continue after the third quarter.
From the perspective of crude oil assets, according to the current calculation of crude oil supply and demand, Ding Luming judged that the reasonable price was US $20-25. The crude oil pricing after September this year is balanced and reasonable. The futures prices in November and December are more than $30, which is uncertain. In the short term, tight storage is the core factor of crude oil discount. From the perspective of KangBo cycle, KangBo depression in history is a period of low fluctuation of oil price. However, low oil prices will lower the cost of inflation and interest rate cuts, so it is judged that the rhythm of interest rate cuts in China and the United States has not stopped.
institutional strategy:
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Zhang Anyuan: it is difficult to make a trend breakthrough in the second quarter of a shares
China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Huang Wentao: China's stock market will take the lead in getting out of the trough
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China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) : it is recommended to add the whole plate of construction machinery, especially the main engine manufacturer
(brokerage China)
