Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : the slow growth continued in the second quarter, and the high-quality stagflation plate
At present, ample liquidity is still in the stage of looking for exports, the downside risk of the market is limited, and the bottom area is clear. When the historical 10-year Treasury bond interest rate is in the current bottom area, the average rise and fall of CSI 300 in the next six months will reach + 10.4%. Despite the abundant liquidity environment, in the face of the recent disturbance of crude oil futures, fundamentals and China’s policy expectations, investors are temporarily in a period of hesitation about long-term bullish and short-term admission time.
However, three recent disturbing factors are gradually digesting: 1) the direction and trend of global capital reallocation remain unchanged. With the further confirmation of China’s relative economic strength, foreign capital will continue the process of increasing China’s equity assets; 2) The first quarterly report is about to be implemented. With the completion of the last “short board” (service industry) of resumption of work and production, the economy is about to enter the normal track. It is expected that the annual A-share profit will rise step by step. The established fact that the first quarterly report is weak will not affect the gradual improvement of subsequent profit growth; 3) The policy tone and objectives remain unchanged, and various policy tools are expected to be gradually implemented as scheduled. At the end of this month, the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress may implement policies and measures related to special bonds and special treasury bonds in advance. With the digestion of short-term disturbance factors, the three consensus of additional allocation of foreign capital, economic recovery and positive policies will be reunited.
In April, the long-term industrial capital has taken the lead in positive changes. It is expected that foreign capital will accelerate to flow into the equity market with the embodiment of China’s relative economic strength. China’s various funds are expected to relay, and the abundant macro liquidity will eventually accelerate to map to the stock market. After the recent short disturbance, it is expected that the slow inflation market driven by the reallocation of global funds, the admission of industrial capital and China’s economic recovery in the second quarter will continue. It is suggested to gradually layout the high-quality stagflation plate suppressed by the epidemic in the early stage.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : the periodic rebound in late March was a shock bottoming
① The market has only rebounded periodically since late March. At present, it is still the bottom of the shock in the bottom area, similar to the first half of 2014. ② Signals of future trend opportunities: fundamental data rebounded and market sentiment indicators fell to an all-time low. ③ Firm confidence in the medium term, be patient in the short term, supplement domestic demand when external demand is insufficient, and focus on stable new infrastructure and consumption structurally.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: main line opportunity under wide shock, undervalued + stable profit
Before the emergence of the breaking power, the wide shock pattern remained unchanged and the structure was adjusted to the top. Based on the four dimensions of profitability, ERP, liquidity and future catalysis, the allocation pattern of four style plates is studied and judged:
Cycle sector: the old infrastructure may like to raise incremental funds, and the policy will be intensively catalyzed under the dilemma of profit bottoming in the first quarter.
Consumption sector: required and optional. The trend of profit differentiation is downward, the safety margin of ERP is high, the consumption incentive policy is fully launched, and the finance may hedge consumption.
Science and technology sector: the scope of new infrastructure is clear, and the profit impact is relatively small. However, it encounters large-scale outflow of ETF and high shock of ERP.
Financial sector: Bank catalysis has not arrived, insurance profits have been damaged, and securities companies have highlighted highlights.
Recommend building materials / construction / brokerage / military industry / small household appliances.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) Dai Kang: A-Shares are neither humble nor arrogant, and technology is preferentially allocated after “risk premium top”
The main line of the market is still the struggle between performance write down and counter cyclical policies. Performance write down and overseas secondary disasters still have a negative impact on a shares. However, under the background of continuous loose liquidity, it is unlikely that A-Shares will hit the “market bottom” after the “profit bottom”. Since the current round of fiscal stimulus policy is probably an investment / consumption mixed way, Therefore, it is also less likely for A-Shares to reproduce the V-shaped reversal at the end of 2008. Maintain the view of “neither humble nor arrogant”, and the configuration still focuses on the main line of domestic demand and domestic supply.
With the increasing imbalance between the sector configuration and valuation of “performance relative advantage”, it is suggested that the configuration gradually turn to “policy hedging direction” and “performance repair elasticity”: (1) science and technology growth benefiting from “risk premium top” (IDC / medical informatization / new energy vehicles); (2) “Retaliatory consumption” (leisure service / Airport) with both boom and configuration hitting the bottom and marginal repair expectation increasing; (3) Counter cyclical policies promote the expansion of infrastructure chain (building materials / electrical equipment).
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) : the bottom will rise in the second quarter and usher in an upward turning point
According to the analysis of Zhang Xia Research Report, A-Shares will hit the bottom and rebound in the second quarter, ushering in an upward turning point. A-Shares are in an upward cycle of two and a half years since 2019, and the possibility of acceleration is not ruled out in the second half of the year. Specifically:
(1) Since the second quarter, the policy has been strengthened and the infrastructure has been strengthened. The old and new infrastructure has become an area of accelerated performance improvement.
(2) In the middle of the second quarter, with the easing of the epidemic situation in the overseas market, the restart of demand, the recovery of foreign demand, new domestic infrastructure and the superposition of the upward cycle of science and technology, the science and technology sector will hit the bottom and pick up. In the second quarter, the science and technology sector will usher in the opportunity of warehouse building again.
Anxin Securities: A-Shares will show a shock upward trend, from necessity to consumption diffusion
In recent communication with institutions, most investors believe that the current market lacks overall opportunities, and the main contradiction lies in the structure. The recent market situation is mainly concentrated in the industries of essential consumer goods such as medicine, agriculture, food and beverage. Anxin Securities believes that the essence of the current A-share structure market is that the market began to recognize that the worst time of liquidity and risk appetite has passed, but it is still worried that the worst time of fundamentals has not passed, because it is worried that domestic demand will rise slowly, but external demand will decline sharply.
At present, the recovery of domestic demand in China’s economy continues, and the strength of policies continues to strengthen. From a month on month perspective, the European and American economies can no longer be worse than the shutdown state. In fact, as long as they start to return to work locally, gradually or even repeatedly, it also means that the worst moment of their economy has passed. Once this expectation becomes a market consensus, The performance of A-share structure will spread from necessary consumption to other directions (technology, cycle, optional consumption, finance, etc.).
Although the short-term market will inevitably experience some iterations after a certain rise, Anxin securities firmly believes that the logic of economic transformation and asset allocation supporting the medium-term upward of A-Shares has not changed. It is expected that A-Shares will still benefit from the continuous marginal improvement of liquidity, profitability and risk preference, showing a shock upward trend, and it is recommended to lay a foundation for consumption in terms of allocation, Technology is still the main line of flexible attack. Recently, the industry focuses on new energy vehicles, computers, the Internet, electronics, communications, military industry, medicine, securities companies, etc., and the theme focuses on the revitalization of Hubei region.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : at the bottom of the shock in the second quarter, the world’s best asset is China’s stock market
According to Wang Delun’s Research Report on industrial strategy, on the whole, in the second quarter of 2020, the market is dominated by structural opportunities in the staggered period of upward domestic demand and downward external demand. According to the report, in terms of institutional advantages and global price comparison, the world’s best assets are in China’s stock market.
(1) After 15-17 years of “three deletions, one reduction and one compensation”, supply side reform and financial deleveraging, China’s overall economy and stock market are in a relatively healthier state than overseas.
(2) At present, China’s economy is stronger than ever to resist external shocks. The strong domestic demand market and consumption of our 1.4 billion people are more important in the economic system than ever before.
(3) The introduction of factor marketization reform is expected to play a pivotal role in future reform.
(4) The relationship between supply and demand in the A-share market is realizing a positive cycle.
(5) Globally, high cost performance and low allocation ratio make the best assets in China’s stock market.
In terms of configuration, the report suggests paying attention to three segments: (1) the steady growth policy continues to increase, and the return to work boom chain deserves attention. (2) The core assets welcome the re inflow of foreign capital and are actively allocated when the valuation and cost performance are reasonable. (3) Science and technology infrastructure promotes great innovation, especially hard science and technology, which continues to benefit and continue to be optimistic for a long time.
Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) : in the second quarter, “when the structural bull is in progress, when the investment is sunny”
Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) Zhu Bin’s research report stressed that in the second quarter, “when the structure is in progress, the investment is sunny”. The report holds that: (1) in terms of epidemic situation, the epidemic situation in China basically subsided in the second quarter, and the inflection point of overseas epidemic situation appeared. (2) In terms of policy, the policy environment in the second quarter was still soothing and friendly. (3) In terms of production resumption, the resumption of work in the second quarter will be promoted smoothly.
In terms of allocation, the report believes that there is abundant liquidity, various industries are gradually recovering, and there are obvious rotation opportunities.
new era Securities: it is not suitable to chase up, waiting for better opportunities
Waiting for a better chance. At the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, it was proposed to hedge the impact of the epidemic with greater macro policy efforts. From the end of February to the beginning of March, the capital market expected a policy driven market. At that time, the mainstream of expectation was new infrastructure. Since April, this expectation has rebounded again with the two sessions. It is now certain that there will be a steady growth policy and monetary easing will be maintained, but the key difference is strength. The new infrastructure has more long-term impact. The short-term economic recovery needs to rely on optional consumption, old infrastructure and real estate. This meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee once again mentioned that housing is not fried, so the subsequent policies that can be expected mainly come from optional consumption and old infrastructure.
It is difficult for the probability of impact on the index to appear on the left. They tend to think that at the index level, it is not appropriate to chase up at the moment, wait for better opportunities, wait for the right side of the policy or the strength of economic resumption beyond expectations.
Guosheng Securities: the bottom area is constantly tamped
The external risk appetite has been mitigated, the internal liquidity has been greatly relaxed, and the bottom area has been continuously consolidated.
Investment strategy: focus on technologies and cycles that are more sensitive to the denominator: 1. Science and technology growth is still the main line in the medium and long term, and focus on new infrastructure, semiconductors, cloud upstream and games. 2. Sensitive to the downward trend of interest rate and benefit from policy Hedging: real estate, infrastructure and securities companies.
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Outlook:
2800 point competition is white hot. How do A-Shares go this week? Seven major securities companies feel the pulse: layout these main lines
Shareholding or currency? The latest strategy of the eight securities companies: the two signals are key, and the slow rise market is expected to continue!
Southwest strategy Zhu Bin: structural cattle invest in the sunny season
Anxin strategy Chen Guo: from the marginal point of view, growth elasticity focuses on the cycle and domestic demand technology
Yang Delong: A-Shares are expected to recover from the bottom and gradually recover their lost land
Haitong strategy Xun Yugen: fund positions tend to technology and consumption
Wang Delun: the market was dominated by structural opportunities at the bottom stage of shock in the second quarter
(for investors’ reference only, it does not constitute investment suggestions; the stock market is risky, so investment should be cautious.)
(brokerage China)
