Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) : May is expected to be the best investment window in the second quarter
The impact of external disturbance during the long holiday is relatively limited, and it is more a short-term emotional impact on the market. Global capital reallocation accelerated, policy driven rapid recovery of fundamentals, and China's loose liquidity was transmitted to the stock market: three factors drove the slow rise of a shares. The short impact of external factors brings a good opportunity to intervene. May is expected to be the second half of the rise of A-Shares in the second quarter and the best investment window in the second quarter.
In terms of configuration, it is still recommended to take the old and new infrastructure and related technology leaders (5g, cloud computing, new energy vehicles, etc.) as the main line; Meanwhile, we can continue to layout high-quality stagflation plates, which are suppressed by the epidemic in the early stage, including catering, tax-free, department stores, Baijiu, consumer electronics, automotive electronics, kitchen electricity, CRO, real estate development and other sub sectors.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) : at present, it is the bottom period after the adjustment of bull market wave 2
① The sell in may effect in overseas markets is obvious, and the probability of positive return of A-Shares in May is the lowest in history. With weak fundamental data and correction of overseas stock markets, A-Shares may withdraw to the bottom again. ② From the medium-term perspective, it is now the bottom of the bull market 2 wave adjustment period, which is similar to the trend rise in the first half of 2014: Fundamentals pick up and market sentiment hit the bottom. ③ We should make steady progress, step by step, and make up for the shortage of external demand and domestic demand. We should first focus on new infrastructure and consumption.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities: the shock pattern will remain in may
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) Securities believes that the market shock pattern in May is expected to continue. The key factor affecting the market is that the market lacks sufficient power up and down, and the shock pattern will still be maintained in May. Among them, the market has four upward supports: (1) the valuation is attractive; (2) Loose liquidity; (3) The turning point of profit has been realized; (4) Policy expectations. There are four downward pressures: (1) short-term foreign capital inflow will slow down; (2) Market supply pressure increases; (3) The supply of market funds decreased; (4) The market lacks the main line.
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China Securities Co.Ltd(601066) Securities: the second quarter will be the best investment window of the year
As the epidemic situation in China has been brought under control, economic activities have returned to normal. We expect that the economy will pick up further in May than in April. Especially after the two sessions are held on May 22, the policy underpinning measures will be further implemented to support economic recovery. Monetary policy remains neutral and flexible, and fiscal policy will be the dominant market direction. After the uncertainty of the first quarter report is completely eliminated, the second quarter will be the stage with the greatest month on month improvement of the whole year and the best window for investment in 2020.
From the performance of large categories of assets, stocks and convertible bonds are the best assets. Profits will lead stocks upward and determine the prosperity of the industry. From the perspective of industry comparison: first, after the economy recovers, the prosperity of the science and technology industry will increase, the early market will fall sharply, and the configuration value of the science and technology industry will reappear. We first promote the three industries of electronics, communication and computer; Secondly, the construction, building materials, transportation and other industries benefiting from counter cyclical regulation also have considerable flexibility; Third, the catering and tourism industries damaged in the early stage and recovered in the later stage will also be restored.
China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) : A-Shares are expected to remain resilient and get out of the trend of first restraining and then rising
In May 2020, although A-Shares were disturbed by external risks in May, they are still expected to maintain resilience and get out of the situation of first restraining and then rising driven by policy expectations, marginal improvement of fundamentals and abundant liquidity.
In May, although the current resumption of production and work in China was relatively smooth, and there were many signs of marginal improvement in the economy, the impact of the epidemic has not been eliminated, and domestic and foreign demand has been restrained. There is still great pressure to stabilize growth. The Politburo meeting on April 17 clearly proposed to increase the construction of traditional infrastructure and new infrastructure, which is expected to remain a hot topic of the two sessions in May. In particular, the "new infrastructure" is expected to introduce more support policies. China's travel restrictions will be gradually lifted, production and work will be resumed in European and American countries, the foot ban will be gradually lifted, outdoor consumption will be gradually restored, and attention will be paid to airports, hotels, air transportation and cars; In terms of theme, pay attention to the general direction of automotive intelligence.
Anxin Securities: A-Shares are expected to usher in a "recovery bull"
In the next stage, the core keyword of the fundamental trend is "recovery". With the end of the global economic shutdown, with the support of unprecedented monetary and fiscal policies, the global economy is expected to recover, and A-Shares are expected to usher in a "recovery bull". The foundation of "recovery bull" comes from three expectations: global policy coordination exceeds expectations, economic repair exceeds expectations, and China's reform exceeds expectations.
it is expected that A-Shares will still benefit from the continuous marginal improvement of liquidity, profitability and risk appetite, showing a volatile upward trend. If the market callback due to external disturbance after the festival, actively pay attention to layout opportunities. the future economic recovery will make all industries show upward prosperity, and structural opportunities will spread from necessary consumption to science and technology, cycle, optional consumption and finance. Combined with the recovery elasticity and medium-term industrial space, we still tend to take science and technology as the main line of elastic attack. Recently, the industry focuses on: new energy vehicles and intelligent driving, cloud computing, Internet, electronics, military industry, communications, building materials, construction, securities companies, etc. the theme focuses on self-control, Satellite Internet, Hubei regional revitalization, etc.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) : Based on the game of market stock, incremental funds are needed to break the deadlock
At this stage, the market capital stock is dominated by game, and incremental capital is needed to break the deadlock. Since the middle and late March, the market has been in the stock game. In April, the newly issued hybrid and stock funds were only more than 50 billion yuan, far lower than the more than 100 billion yuan in March and February, far lower than the capital demand of the market.
At this stage, the valuation of electronics and computers is still high, and the valuation is in the historical quantile of about 70% - 80%, which is equivalent to that in the first quarter of 2014. For institutional investors, it is still focused on high-quality segments matching performance and valuation. The overall growth stocks have time to digest valuation and trade time for space.
new era Securities: trend market needs to be brewing, focusing on optional consumption
The core reason behind the rebound from the end of March to April is "position replenishment + game two sessions + resumption expectation". In May, the positive impact of the first two factors will weaken. Although the third factor continues, the intensity is not too fast. This may bring the "tail risk" of A-Shares in May. In space, it will wash out most of the game funds. In time, it may be monthly. In the tail risk period, we should control positions tactically and start looking for new logic strategically. In history, the tail risk period is the brewing period of new plates. Pig breeding and securities companies were brewing in December 2018, and electronics were brewing from June to July 2019. The trend market needs about a month of brewing, and the early substantial position increase time point may be from the end of May to the beginning of June.
Recently, the interest rate has started to decline rapidly, which may bring some funds allocated to pay attention to the dividend in the stock market. It is suggested to pay attention to the sectors with undervalued value and high dividend potential, and the financial and real estate sectors and some cyclical sectors with sufficient cash reserves. From the perspective of fundamentals, the focus in the future is to observe the recovery speed of various industries from the epidemic. Considering that China's economy may lead the recovery of the global economy, it is suggested to pay attention to China's consumption. Recently, several local governments have introduced policies to stabilize consumption. We believe that similar policies may continue to be introduced, and the probability of positive impact on consumption is not over. It is suggested to continue to over allocate and focus on optional consumption.
YueKai Securities: the disturbance outside the holiday does not change the long red of A-Shares in may
Under the situation of severe turbulence in the global financial market, China's capital market is generally stable and resilient. At present, the overall valuation of A-Shares is still attractive, the performance risk of listed companies has been basically released, and the market risk appetite is expected to improve. Looking back on the history of recent ten years, the market rise probability increases after May Day.
The performance is low. There is marginal improvement expectation in the performance of the second quarter, superimposed with policy support and a relatively loose liquidity environment, A-Shares are long and cost-effective. Although there were waves in the overseas market during the May Day holiday, the negative impact on A-Shares was short-term, and the adjustment provided allocation opportunities for funds. The gem refers to a relatively stronger elasticity, superimposed with the registration system reform to optimize the market ecology, which is expected to benefit first at this stage.
Guosheng Securities: actively grasp the long window before and after the two sessions
During May Day, there were waves overseas, or a short-term impact on the post holiday market or trigger profit taking. However, after a rare global slump at the beginning of the year, the impact of this level on A-Shares is limited. On the contrary, it once again provides a good opportunity for allocation, and the growth of science and technology will return to the main line of the market.
Before and after the two sessions, it is often a long window with high cost performance. The two sessions will be held on May 21 and 22. In the report "market resumption of the two sessions over the years and what is the difference this time", we reviewed and counted the market performance before and after the two sessions in the past 15 years: in most years, the market rose as a whole before and after the two sessions, and the probability of systemic risk was low. It is suggested to actively grasp this long window with high cost performance.
Investment strategy: raise the banner of science and technology again, and pay attention to the cyclical industry with interest rate sensitivity. Technological growth: focus on new infrastructure, semiconductors, cloud upstream and games. Sensitive to the downward trend of interest rate and benefit from policy Hedging: securities companies, real estate and infrastructure.
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