The market is about to start in June. Brokers believe that the rise and fall of the A-share index in June is limited. On the whole, it is still in the stage of shaking in the bottom range and preparing for the bull market. This process will be a "protracted war".
In terms of configuration in June, most securities companies recommend new and old infrastructure, technology and consumption leaders with performance support.
the rise and fall range of the index in June was limited
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that looking forward to June 2020, under the influence of overseas disturbance and expected repair of fundamentals, it is expected that A-Shares will be in equilibrium as a whole, and the rise and fall of the index are limited.
CITIC believes that in June, A-Shares will experience the process of structural rebalancing in an overall balanced state.
First of all, overseas disturbances were frequent in June, but the real impact was limited. the overseas epidemic is still spreading, there is great pressure in emerging markets, and the epidemic in the United States may be repeated.
Secondly, driven by the policy, the trend of China's economic recovery will be strengthened in June. after the "two sessions", the implementation of policies will not be small; The expectation of fundamental replenishment was strengthened, and China's economy quickly recovered to normal level in June. If the RRR and interest rate cuts are implemented and the tension at the end of the month is relieved, the market's concerns about macro liquidity will also be repaired.
Thirdly, if the resonance of various funds weakens, the market structure will rebalance. external disturbance affects the rhythm of foreign capital inflow, but the inflow trend remains unchanged; The willingness of public offering to reduce positions is limited, and parallel position adjustment will be more frequent; The admission rhythm of industrial capital slows down; Private and individual investors are more likely to follow.
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) also holds a similar view that investors will face a "protracted war" next. there is no expected "flood irrigation". It is difficult to reproduce the "bull market" expectation of the market index by relying on the old model, strong stimulation and making fast money. Therefore, we oppose the "quick win theory".
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) pointed out that with the closing of the two sessions and the gradual implementation of phased policies, based on the "six stabilities" and "six guarantees", there is no "flood irrigation", strong stimulation and old model, which is difficult to reproduce. Looking forward to June, the uncertainty is increasing, most of which comes from the outside. The epidemic situation in Europe and the United States is gradually downward, the economic recovery is slow and upward, the uncertainty of fundamentals itself, the potential risk of turbulence in the global capital market, the game of science, technology and Finance are increasing, and the price does not fully reflect the impact of these factors. The impact of the event affects investor sentiment and risk appetite. It is difficult for investment to be smooth sailing and win quickly.
" looking forward to June and the future, the external pressure will be relieved, the internal reform will be accelerated, the policy expectations will be improved, and the periodic market will be similar to the victory of the Taierzhuang campaign and the Pingxingguan campaign during the war of resistance against Japan. Break up the whole into parts and accumulate small victories into big victories. When at a certain stage in the future, bad news will be fully released, good news will continue to accumulate, the profit-making effect will gradually recover, and the pace of great vitality in the stock market will be closer and closer. " China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) indicates.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) Xun Yugen believes that the market has entered the adjustment period since May 11, March 19 is the end of panic, valuation and policy. On the whole, it is still the bottom range shock, preparing for the rise of three waves of bull market.
So when will the adjustment end? Xun Yugen pointed out that on the one hand, the fundamental data rebounded significantly, and on the other hand, the market contracted and strong stocks made up for the decline.
"The end of the second quarter and the beginning of the third quarter are the first observation window." Xun Yugen said.
configure favorite old and new infrastructure
In terms of configuration in June, the old and new infrastructure is the favorite of various securities companies, but the recommendations of various securities companies also have their own characteristics.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that in terms of configuration, from the perspective of the whole year, new and old infrastructure and technology white horse are still the main line of the whole year.
However, in the process of structural rebalancing in June, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) suggests paying attention to three main lines: infrastructure sector, post real estate optional consumption, technology with high performance certainty and consumption leader.
Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) Xun Yugen suggested that focus on domestic demand in the third quarter, such as new infrastructure (Technology), automobile and household appliances, securities companies, underestimate the repair of the industry and other catalysts, and focus on the window period of the fourth quarter.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) pointed out that A-Shares are in an equity friendly environment of "weak profit recovery and loose liquidity". The market will seek valuation dimensionality reduction on the basis of "deterministic premium" and pass along the path of necessary consumption optional consumption some cycles with good supply-demand relationship.
Specifically, in terms of industry configuration:
(1) Optional consumption (Leisure Services / furniture, household appliances / passenger cars) with bottom boom and still advantageous absolute and relative valuation;
(2) "Cycle three swordsmen" (heavy truck / building materials / construction machinery) with the lowest valuation + the highest performance certainty in the "performance repair elasticity";
(3) Benefit from the gradual and controllable scientific and technological growth of the global epidemic (new energy vehicles, IDC).
China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) it is suggested that industry configuration: under the "protracted war", grasp the direction of incremental capital inflow and better stability and pressure resistance of industrial companies. In addition, 39000 old urban communities have been newly renovated, double that of 2019. Industry opportunities such as home appliances, food and beverage, consumer building materials, home furnishings and medical equipment can be focused on.
"we are optimistic about big innovation, especially hard technology, especially 5g applications (cloud, video, etc.), semiconductor chain, new energy vehicle chain, etc." China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) indicates.
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(21st Century Business Herald)
