As the first half of 2020 is about to pass, securities companies have successively released medium-term strategy reports or investment prospects for the second half of the year. The reporter of China Securities Journal combed the relevant reports of securities companies at the head and found that securities companies generally believe that China's economic recovery power is strong, and the economic growth rate is expected to return to the pre epidemic level within this year; Under the background of comprehensive capital market reform, China's asset performance price ratio is prominent, and A-Shares will start the medium-term upward "well-off bull" in the second half of the year; In terms of investment strategy, securities companies pointed out that they should grasp the main line of investment around "certainty".
annual GDP growth is expected to reach 3%
In the first half of the year, the impact of the epidemic on the economy was obvious. Looking forward to the second half of the year, securities companies believe that with the orderly resumption of production and work in China, China's economy will gradually recover in the second half of the year. Brokers expect the annual GDP growth to reach about 3%.
Peng Wensheng, chief economist and head of the research department, pointed out in his first research report released after the return of China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) on June 15 that the global economic recovery will show a wave, gradual and resonant trend. China and East Asian economies will take the lead in recovery, followed by Europe, then the United States, and finally developing countries such as Brazil, India and African countries.
Zhu Jianfang, chief economist, pointed out that China's economy has shown a trend of rapid repair. In April, the growth rate of indicators such as real estate investment, infrastructure investment and industrial enterprise income has turned positive. Although the pressure of external demand continues, investment takes the lead and consumption continues to pick up. It is expected that the overall economic operation will show a "V" trend that the second quarter is significantly better than the first quarter and the second half is significantly better than the first half of the year.
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) believes that there are two driving forces for China's economic recovery. The driving force in the third quarter comes from the dislocation recovery of overseas economy, which drives China's exports. In the fourth quarter, China's active replenishment cycle is expected to relay. Chinese consumption took the lead in recovering from "necessary consumption" to "optional consumption", and real estate investment and infrastructure investment recovered moderately.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) said that China's economy will recover quarter by quarter in the second half of the year. We need to be vigilant against the drag of foreign demand in the second quarter, and the new economic momentum is closely related to the export trend. In terms of policy, the epidemic has gradually returned from the abnormal state, and the transformation from broad currency to broad credit has accelerated.
For the annual GDP growth, securities companies are generally optimistic. Zhu Jianfang is expected to eventually achieve a growth rate of 3.1%, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) it is expected that the annual GDP growth rate will be about 3%.
A-Shares may welcome "well-off cattle" in the second half of the year
Data show that in the past three months, the A-share market has shown a volatile upward trend. Many securities companies believe that under the background of comprehensive capital market reform, China's asset performance price ratio is prominent, and A-Shares are expected to open the medium-term upward "well-off bull" in the second half of the year.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that compared with the world, China has sufficient room for policy maneuver, the route of factor market reform promoting new urbanization and continuing opening up is clear, and China is still the best market for looking for long-term growth opportunities in the process of economic transformation between new and old structures. Although external interference factors still exist, it is expected that A-Shares will be "dangerous" and continue to be in a positive and promising stage of optimizing the structure.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that "policy driven fundamental repair, improved attractiveness of A-Shares in global allocation, and loose macro liquidity transmission to the stock market" jointly drive the upward movement of a shares. It is estimated that the net inflow of funds from various investors into A-Shares will reach 440 billion yuan in the next year, and foreign capital and industrial capital are the most important sources of incremental funds. In terms of rhythm, it is expected to be large in the second half of the year, which is expected to reach 310 billion yuan.
Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) believes that the coping strategy of A-Shares can take the market low in May as the safety margin, and there is no need to consider the impact of liquidity on the valuation elasticity of A-Shares in the range of 2.8% - 3.2% of long-term interest rate; In terms of timing judgment, it is expected that the A-share market is expected to grow from α Opportunity trend β opportunity.
grasp the main line of investment around certainty
For small and medium-sized investors, the most important thing is how to grasp investment opportunities. The key word given by many securities companies is "certainty".
Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) said that the market is looking for a reasonable valuation in the long track, and the market configuration will look for the "relative certainty" of repair, that is, the reasonable valuation varieties benefiting from the repair path. In terms of configuration, it is suggested to follow three paths: first, the restoration of residents' consumption demand, focusing on leisure services, airports, household appliances, gold and jewelry from the perspective of travel restoration, completion pull and offline restoration; Second, repair export demand, resonance between domestic supply and external demand, home consumption and export related consumer electronics (apple industry chain), mechanical equipment and white electricity; Third, the "three swordsmen of the cycle" (heavy trucks, building materials and construction machinery) with low valuation and good prosperity, and the new infrastructure (IDC and medical informatization) benefiting from the scene revolution.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) believes that the certainty of profit will bring good investment opportunities. In terms of industry configuration, it is suggested to find an advantageous direction. For example, the securities industry is catalyzed by a series of reform policies, and the double improvement of prosperity + concentration brings good investment opportunities; The media industry is driven by reform and technology; The home appliance industry is facing rapid repair of domestic demand, and external demand may begin to repair gradually in the fourth quarter; Electronics, computers and military industry also deserve attention.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) said to grasp the transformation from "infrastructure + consumption" in the third quarter to "cycle + technology" in the fourth quarter. In the third quarter, it is recommended to allocate domestic demand sectors with high certainty, including new and old infrastructure with high policy certainty, medicine with stable fundamentals and consumption leaders with high performance certainty. Since the fourth quarter, the technology benefiting from the expected improvement of liquidity and the relatively flexible fundamentals will become the main line of the market; At the same time, the configuration value of optional consumption with rapid economic recovery will also be improved.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) pointed out that industry configuration and theme selection should take into account the following aspects: first, give priority to domestic demand and take into account the potential recovery of external demand; Second, continue to focus on the possible staged rebound of the "old" economy with the "new" economy such as large consumption, medicine, science and technology and advanced manufacturing as the main line; Third, in terms of allocation rhythm, refer to the Recovery Boom differences of different industries and the degree of market expectation.
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(China Securities Journal)
