On June 18, the A-share index maintained a volatile trend, but the pharmaceutical and biological sector, which led the rise in the early stage, fell in a large area. Fortunately, the consumer electronics and securities companies took over and did more, and the trading sentiment of the two cities was not greatly affected. Public offering institutions believe that pharmaceutical stocks have been strong for half a year and have a strong willingness to take profits. With the change of disk hot spots, we can focus on the opportunities of undervaluation and early stagflation. Among them, cosmetics, online consumption and other subdivided consumption fields, as well as technology stocks with full callback at the bottom, are expected to obtain excess returns in the future.
expected profit taking in the pharmaceutical and biological sector
On the 18th, the three major A-share indexes rose slightly. However, from the perspective of plate performance, the meaning of "changing plate" is more obvious.
On the 18th, the main plate leading the market to do more has been converted from the former hot pharmaceutical and biological plate to cyclical plates such as steel. Due to the intraday decline of the pharmaceutical and biological plate, the gem index was once dragged down by nearly 1%. At the same time, with the recovery of popularity, concept sectors such as consumer electronics have also strengthened collectively. In terms of trading volume, the data showed that on the 18th, the total turnover of the two cities was 758.348 billion yuan, slightly higher than 738.672 billion yuan on the previous trading day. Meanwhile, northbound funds reversed the net outflow of the previous trading day on the 18th, with a net inflow of nearly 5 billion yuan.
"The signs of A-share market change are obvious." A fund manager in the South believes that up to now, pharmaceutical stocks have strengthened for half a year. From the adjustment on the 18th, the funds involved should be profit taking, "if it is not the chips taken at the bottom, there is a great risk of chasing up at present." He believes that from the perspective of capital rotation, the strong trend of pharmaceutical stocks is "the future may continue to Baijiu, food and beverage and cosmetics and other fields."
He Jie, the proposed fund manager of Qianhai United value preferred hybrid, believes that A-Shares are still very attractive equity assets worldwide, and the important variable factors leading the market in the medium term include the progress of overseas epidemic, China's hedging policy and the progress of resumption of work. "At present, the most pessimistic period of overseas epidemic has passed. In terms of China's fundamentals, the economy biased towards domestic demand is expected to recover more than expected, but the margin of loose liquidity is weakened. In the medium term, the market will enter a balanced state. Although some targets have a large increase, the overall valuation of the market is still at a reasonably low level."
Zhan Cheng, the proposed fund manager of Jingshun Zhejiang Grandwall Electric Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603897) innovation hybrid fund, pointed out that at present, the comparative advantages of equity assets are obvious. If there is an inflection point in the global epidemic and abundant liquidity and fiscal stimulus policies of various economies are superimposed, the equity market will rebound significantly.
undervaluation and replenishment form a phased main line
Wang Wei, fund manager of Dacheng Fund, pointed out that the impact of the epidemic on the enterprise cash flow statement has basically passed under the support of monetary and fiscal policies. In the process of policy support and slow recovery of demand, enterprises begin to enter the transition stage of balance sheet repair, which may be the leading factor in the next market.
China Merchants Fund pointed out that there are signs of marginal recovery of liquidity, but in view of the uncertainty of epidemic prevention and control and economy outside China, the policy is not expected to be tightened. In this context, the deepening of economic repair drives the rebalancing of value and growth style, as well as the make-up of undervalued and early stagflation sectors, or become a phased main line. In the follow-up, we can pay attention to the cyclical sector valuation repair opportunities brought by the continuous repair of interest rates and economic expectations.
Chen Jianjun, manager of ChuangJin Hexin consumption themed equity fund, pointed out that globally, assets with sustained and steady growth have become extremely scarce, but China has a number of excellent consumer companies, and China's consumption has entered an unprecedented historical pattern. China has the most complete supply chain, is the world's largest consumer market, and is the world's most active Internet market with the fastest iteration. "This is a historic opportunity. If coupled with the fastest Internet big data processing tool, China should be the most fertile soil for new consumption. This is a lasting trend." He said.
focus on technology and consumer segments
In terms of specific layout, China Merchants Fund believes that the future market can focus on the consumption and technology sector, focus on the infrastructure and real estate industry chain with upward industry prosperity and relatively reasonable valuation, and the financial sector with undervalued value can also be configured appropriately. However, for the sectors with risk aversion attribute and good performance certainty in the early stage, due to the large short-term increase and expensive valuation, the upward market risk preference may lead to the withdrawal of the deterministic valuation premium they enjoy.
He Jie said that high-quality development will still be the main line of the medium and long-term real economy and financial market. Among them, cloud computing, 5g, new energy and innovative drugs in the direction of scientific and technological innovation are the main directions of the new economy; In the consumption sector, meeting the demand for a better life runs through the main line, and medical services, brand consumption and mass consumer goods will continue to grow in the long run; In the cycle sector, we can still pay attention to the industry leaders whose market share and return on net assets (ROE) continue to improve.
Gao Bing, manager of China Merchants intelligent life fund, pointed out that from historical experience, technology stocks tend to perform better in the third quarter. "At the current time point, we believe that the technology stocks with sufficient callback at the bottom have fully digested all kinds of bad or bad, and are expected to run out of more obvious excess returns in the third quarter. We can focus on the fields of consumer electronics, panel and information application innovation."
Chen Jianjun believes that next, we can focus on the fundamentals of individual consumer stocks and explore them in depth. "Consumer sector has been rising steadily, especially the Baijiu and home appliance sector recently. However, the two companies have different rebounding rates, the core reason is the differentiation of quarterly performance. Among them, the high-end Baijiu, which is the least affected by the epidemic, has the most powerful rebound, and the leading appliance manufacturers are less vulnerable. The demand increased, and the performance of the first quarter exceeded expectations, walking out of a trend completely different from that of the home appliance industry. " He said that the following five consumption areas can be configured, namely pig breeding and animal health, food and beverage and household appliances, cosmetics, online consumption and home furnishing companies in the fine decoration industry chain.
<divopid="292" optitle="%u5E02%u573A%u673A%u4F1A" >
(China Securities Journal)
