Different from growth stocks, financial cycle stocks are more reflected in a pulsed market, which needs to grasp its investment rhythm. At a specific time point, there are more opportunities for financial cycle stocks in the fourth quarter.
On July 30, the live broadcast room of “Taurus coming” held by China Securities Journal was full of dry goods. This live broadcast invited Chen Jialin, the founder of old Jinniu private equity Shicheng investment and the outstanding private equity manager of Jinniu for the 10th anniversary. He shared the live broadcast around the theme of “plate rotation acceleration, how to tap high boom bull stocks”, and had wonderful exchanges and interactions with fans.
Chen Jialin believes that the overall trend of China’s macro-economy is obvious. At present, cloud computing, which is most optimistic about the direction of science and technology, investment opportunities in the three subdivided fields of innovative drugs and innovative devices in medicine and food and beverage in large consumption.
the upward trend of A-Shares remains unchanged
Since July, the A-share market has fluctuated, but the overall trend is strong. According to Chen Jialin’s analysis, the main reason is that abundant liquidity drives the market up. Although A-Shares have fluctuated recently, Chen Jialin is more optimistic. He believes that the rising trend of A-Shares remains unchanged.
Chen Jialin said that at present, the overall good trend of China’s macro economy is more obvious. “The economy hit a low point in the first quarter and the growth rate reached about 3% in the second quarter. Looking at the global horizontal comparison, it is very beautiful.” Chen Jialin predicted that China’s sustained economic recovery will continue until at least the first quarter of next year. High quality economic development is also a hard support for the capital market.
In Chen Jialin’s view, the capital market reform will bring huge dividends. He said, “China’s economy is huge. At present, we need to pursue high-quality development. Capital market reforms such as gem reform and pilot registration system will bring huge growth dividends. On the other hand, it is expected that China’s economy will maintain a growth rate of about 4% – 5% for a long time in the future.”
Looking forward to the future, Chen Jialin expects that there may be limited changes in China’s liquidity environment in the second half of the year, and there is little risk of substantial “recovery” of liquidity. On the whole, the overall liquidity in the second half of the year should be relatively abundant, and the relevant potential risks are limited.
optimistic about the three segments
At the current time point, Chen Jialin is most optimistic about the investment opportunities in the three segments, including the cloud computing segment in the direction of science and technology, innovative drugs and innovative devices in medicine, and food and beverage in large consumption.
As for the science and technology sector, Chen Jialin believes that the overall valuation of science and technology stocks and the market value of the company are high, which reflects the optimistic expectations of market players for some high-quality leading companies in science and technology segments. In terms of promising subdivided technology fields, Chen Jialin said that in the past, China paid more attention to infrastructure construction in cloud computing. In the future, if listed companies can seize the great opportunity of cloud computing application scenarios, it will be a better investment opportunity.
For pharmaceutical investment, Chen Jialin said that the pharmaceutical industry is a large category of industries, including many sub industries, and each subdivided industry has great differentiation. When studying the pharmaceutical industry, we need to deeply study the subdivided track for judgment. From the current point of view, Chen Jialin believes that the overall opportunity of the pharmaceutical industry is good, which is related to the trend of China’s aging population and China’s per capita medical and pharmaceutical expenditure is still low, so there is still much room for development in the future. Specifically, we are optimistic about the innovative sub industries, including innovative drugs, Innovation Medical Management Co.Ltd(002173) devices, etc.
Chen Jialin believes that the consumer industry is also a track worthy of long-term investment. He said, “the competition in China’s consumer industry is very fierce. To identify excellent consumer companies, we should pay special attention to human factors, such as the relevant situation of major shareholders, the helmsman of the company, the company’s development strategy, financial resources, etc.”
At the beginning of July, financial stocks ushered in a wave of sharp rise. Recently, there has been a “flameout” trend. For this, Chen Jialin specially suggested that “unlike growth stocks, financial cycle stocks are more reflected in a pulsed market and need to grasp their investment rhythm. From the specific time point of view, financial cycle stocks have greater opportunities in the fourth quarter.” He said that the performance of financial and other cyclical stocks is relatively weak this year, but the cyclical industry still plays a more basic role in China’s economic development in the future, and there is a large valuation gap between the entire financial cycle industry and consumer and other industries. Therefore, there is still an opportunity to pay attention to high-quality stocks with fundamental support in the future.
In addition, Chen Jialin is also optimistic about the long-term performance of new energy vehicles, semiconductors and other industries.
the essence of investment is “subtraction”
Chen Jialin said that the effect of constant strength of the strong in the A-share market is becoming more and more prominent, and the leading effect will continue in the future. Leading enterprises can use their core competitive advantage to exchange more resources, so as to further consolidate their competitive advantage and bring higher growth than the average level of the industry. In addition, institutional investors such as public funds and foreign capital continue to enter the market, which has brought changes to the investor organization. Most of the new funds prefer leading stocks, which will aggravate the leading effect.
Chen Jialin said that a major change in A-Shares in recent years is that the stock price performance and valuation system increasingly reflect the company’s fundamentals and the market is more effective. The main reason behind this is the change of investor structure.
For individual investors, Chen Jialin believes that they need to find their familiar fields and maintain their concentration in order to obtain better returns in the market. He said, “no matter bull market, bear market or shock market, investment should maintain the investment concept of the same strain, focus on the fields they are relatively good at and find industries matching their comparative advantages. The essence of investment is subtraction. It is impossible to grasp every investment opportunity and avoid chasing up, killing down or frequent trading.”
(China Securities Journal)
