High prices, low inventories, saturated orders from manufacturers... Refrigerants are ushering in a high light moment.
On August 27, China's refrigerant R125 rose by more than 14%, nearly 50% in that week, and the annual increase has exceeded 175%; R410 increased by 100% in 2010; R22 also rose nearly 6% on the day and more than 12% on the week. R125 (left) and r410 (right) half year price trend. Source: Baichuan Yingfu
The agency predicts that under the background of the gradual withdrawal of second-generation refrigerants, the popularization of fourth-generation refrigerants and the stable growth of downstream demand, it is optimistic that the third-generation refrigerants will usher in an inflection point and open a "golden decade" of high prosperity in the future.
In the secondary market, refrigerant concept stocks have also ushered in a round of market recently. As of August 27, the share price of leading refrigerant enterprises Zhejiang Juhua Co.Ltd(600160) has nearly doubled in the year. In addition, Zhejiang Sanmei Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(603379) , Zhejiang Yonghe Refrigerant Co.Ltd(605020) share prices have performed well recently.
why did the price of refrigerant rise sharply
Why did the price of refrigerant rise sharply recently? "In addition to the steady growth of downstream demand, it is mainly due to the price rise of upstream raw materials and the supply side quota system, resulting in the reduction of supply." Recently, an insider told reporters.
Taking tetrachloroethylene as an example, as the main raw material of R125, due to the impact of the epidemic, the source of imported goods has decreased. At present, the operating ratio of units in China is insufficient and the supply shortage continues. Last week, the ex factory price of individual tetrachloroethylene in Jiangsu and Zhejiang reached 15000 yuan / ton, compared with 3400 yuan / ton in China last August. The price trend of tetrachloroethylene since August last year. Source: Baichuan Yingfu
In addition to the promotion of the cost side, the refrigerant production at the supply side is also affected by the quota. It is understood that in October 2016, the 28th Conference of the parties to the Montreal protocol adopted the "Kigali amendment" on the reduction of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCS). The amendment includes 18 HFCS substances with high temperature chamber effect potential (GWP) into the control catalogue, which stipulates that developing countries should freeze and reduce the consumption and production of HFCS in 2024 on the basis of the average use of HFCS from 2020 to 2022, start to reduce from 2029, and reduce the use of HFCS to within 20% of its benchmark value after 2045.
According to the Montreal Protocol and the Kigali amendment, the first generation of refrigerants has been phased out globally; The second generation of refrigerants was basically eliminated in developed countries, and China implemented a quota system and gradually reduced production; The third generation refrigerant is in the fixed baseline stage in China and most developing countries, and the quota will be frozen in 2024. In terms of second-generation refrigerants, due to quota restrictions on R22 and other products, the total subsequent supply is limited, supporting the product price.
the performance of these companies in the industrial chain is expected to benefit
China Kings Resources Group Co.Ltd(603505) : Fluorite Resource leader in the upstream of fluorochemical industry
At the upstream of the industrial chain, China Kings Resources Group Co.Ltd(603505) as a leading enterprise in China's Fluorite industry, cooperates with Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co.Ltd(600010) to develop tailings associated fluorite projects, and will continue to expand market share through internal potential tapping and mine mergers and acquisitions. The goal is to achieve a controllable output of 1.5 million tons of fluorite within five years and improve the company's industry voice in China and the world.
According to the latest research report of Kaiyuan securities, China's Fluorite supply in the future is mainly affected by three aspects: first, Baotou Iron and steel Jinshi project with an annual output of 800000 tons of fluorite powder, Guizhou phosphating planning and the hydrofluoric acid production project of fluorosilicic acid of Yunnan fluorophosphorus company; Second, in terms of import and export, China has become a net importer of fluorite since 2018. However, considering China's protection of fluorite resources and the increase of global demand for fluorite, it is expected that China's net import of fluorite will rise steadily in the future; Third, with regard to the elimination of backward production capacity, it is expected that in addition to the above large projects, the overall industry production capacity will show a net clearing trend. On the demand side, with the rapid rise of fluorine chemical industry chain, refrigerants, new energy and fluoropolymers are all downstream needs. Among them, as the industry with the largest proportion in the downstream of fluorochemical industry, refrigerant is the ballast required by fluorite, which will remain stable as a whole.
Previously, the company disclosed the semi annual report, with a revenue of 417 million yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 28.69%; The net profit was 100 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.95%.
Befar Group Co.Ltd(601678) : the prices of trichloroethylene and tetrachloroethylene continued to rise
Trichloroethylene and tetrachloroethylene are refrigerant raw materials, and they are also one of the main products of Befar Group Co.Ltd(601678) . According to the semi annual report recently released by the company, during the reporting period, the company realized an operating revenue of 4.319 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 58.75%; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was 978 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5513.93%; The net cash flow from operating activities was RMB 1.236 billion, a year-on-year increase of 395.5%.
The company said that in the first half of the year, the company continued to improve the routine level of environmental protection and inspection, and completed the EIA approval of 11 projects such as trichloroethylene by-product hydrochloric acid purification. The continuous operation cycle of tetrachloroethylene unit has reached a record high. The epichlorohydrin unit has met the production conditions since February. The lithium hexafluorophosphate and electronic hydrofluoric acid unit have continuously optimized the production process.
Zhejiang Juhua Co.Ltd(600160) : China's leading refrigerant enterprise
According to the latest research report of Guosen Securities Co.Ltd(002736) , Zhejiang Juhua Co.Ltd(600160) is a leading enterprise in China's fluorine chemical industry, with three core competitive advantages: it has a complete fluorine chemical industry chain, and the industrial layout includes upstream hydrofluoric acid, midstream refrigerant and downstream fluorine-containing new materials; The scale of leading products is leading in China. According to Baichuan Yingfu, the company has a capacity of 150000 tons of second-generation refrigerant R22 and 220000 tons of third-generation refrigerant. Fluorine chemical industry, the core business, is in a leading position in China. It not only has a complete range of refrigerant categories, including the main single substance and mixed products from the second generation to the fourth generation. And continue to layout high value-added fluorine materials including PTFE, PVDF and FKM. The fourth quarter is about to enter the peak season of traditional refrigerant preparation, and the prices of R22, R142b, R125, R134a, r143a and other products have further upward momentum.
Zhejiang Sanmei Chemical Industry Co.Ltd(603379) : R125 has the largest production capacity in China
In the first half of this year, the company achieved a total operating revenue of 1.77 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.5%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 140 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 18.1%, narrower than the same period last year, and the net profit after deduction of non-profit decreased by 1% year-on-year.
The company has an R125 production capacity of 52000 tons, which is the largest production capacity in China, and the raw material supply is guaranteed. Kaiyuan Securities believes that the company is expected to benefit from this round of R125 price rise in the future.
In addition, the company continues to improve the layout of fluorine chemical industry chain. The company recently announced that the company plans to invest about 230 million yuan by its wholly-owned subsidiary Fujian Qingliu Dongying Chemical Co., Ltd. to build "Fujian Dongying 6000 T / a lithium hexafluorophosphate and 100 t / a high-purity phosphorus pentafluoride new project".
Zhejiang Yonghe Refrigerant Co.Ltd(605020) : it has a complete fluorine chemical industry chain
Zhejiang Yonghe Refrigerant Co.Ltd(605020) has a complete fluorine chemical industry chain. At the upstream of the industrial chain, the company currently has two mining rights and two exploration rights. By the end of 2020, the proved fluorite reserve has reached 3.2935 million tons of ore. Recently, the company said on the interactive platform that its main products include fluorocarbon chemicals (HCFC-22, HFC-152a, etc.), mixed refrigerants (R410A, R404A, etc.), fluoropolymer materials and monomers (FEP, HFP, PTFE, etc.), hydrofluoric acid, fluorite powder, fluorite ore, etc. At present, fluorocarbon chemicals are mainly used in the field of refrigerants. Fluoropolymer products are widely used in industrial construction, petrochemical, automobile industry and aerospace industry because of their high temperature resistance, acid and alkali resistance, solvent resistance, weather resistance, non viscosity and good dielectric properties. The company will actively improve the integrated layout of fluorine chemical industry chain, explore more application fields, and apply for mining rights after further exploration.
(Shanghai Securities News)
