Looking back on Monday's A-share market, the opening price of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets fluctuated, and the market fell uniformly at the beginning of the market. With the sharp decline of white horse consumption, the stock index weakened further, maintained a low shock, and then gradually rebounded. In the afternoon, the cyclical stocks accelerated the surge, the stock index showed a bottom recovery trend, and the short-term structural market still exists.
As mentioned by Huaxin securities, the upstream resource varieties of A-Shares rebounded, driving the recovery of theme concepts, and the transaction warmed up driven by popular stocks. For the fourth quarter, the fulfillment of broad credit expectation is the key to the sustainability of the market. However, from the social finance data in September, it is significantly lower than expected, and more than 2 trillion liquidity expired in November and December, so the tone of the central bank is particularly critical.
In terms of the future market, China Galaxy Securities Co.Ltd(601881) Securities believes that the enthusiasm for trillions of transactions per day has faded, and it is difficult to return to the previous state in the short term. During the quiet period of policy, the market will maintain a wide range of shocks, focusing on the opportunities of individual stocks. the second half of October is the intensive period of formal disclosure of the third quarterly report. The market of the third quarterly report is arranged, and the sectors and companies supported by undervalued value + performance are optimistic.
In addition, the agency suggested to pay attention to: 1) the second half of October is the third quarterly report disclosure quarter, and the performance of resources, energy and materials industries such as chemical industry, coal and petroleum is good; 2) High end manufacturing and Technology (high valuation, buy in every drop) such as independent and self-improvement in science and technology and specialized special new small and medium-sized enterprises are still in the upward stage of the cycle, and are optimistic about new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, semiconductors, military industry, etc; 3) We are optimistic about the consumer industry with strong performance certainty, reasonable valuation and prominent long-term value.
Bohai Securities pointed out that the market of plate is lack of sustainability, the rapid decline of profit-making effect makes active funds leave the market to wait and see, the transaction volume continues to shrink, and the market lacks the main line . The reduction process of transaction volume is expected to bring the precipitation and consolidation of chips and reduce resistance for the start-up of the subsequent market. Therefore, there is no need to worry too much about this. The shock market composed of "performance under pressure but overall controllable, and the total liquidity is stable and loose" will still be maintained. considering the disclosure period of the third quarterly report, investors can tap the opportunities for the third quarterly report to exceed expectations.
In addition, in the macro aspect, Dongguan Securities said that although there is a marginal weakening trend in the economic recovery momentum, the credit data is less than expected, and China's inflation pressure is large. However, the central bank has set a sound monetary policy, and inflation is generally controllable. At the same time, it will timely and appropriately inject liquidity with different maturities to smooth short-term fluctuations, which will help stabilize market expectations.
In terms of operational strategy, the agency further analyzed that investors can tap the opportunities in the infrastructure field where the downward pressure on the economy raises the necessity of infrastructure support, as well as the energy storage sector brought about by policy promotion under the background of new power system construction; At the same time, from the perspective of medium and long term, the individual stocks whose valuations return to a reasonable range in the consumption sector can be arranged on the left; In addition, we can also pay attention to the thematic opportunities to specialize in the new "little giant" driven by policy expectations.
Caixin securities mentioned that considering the 1-2 quarter leading time lag of global liquidity on commodity prices and the synchronous relationship between commodity prices and the economy, we believe that the rapid upward period of commodity prices has passed. It is expected that China may be in the stage of marginal decline in inflation and weakening economic prosperity in the fourth quarter. At this stage, it is suggested to allocate assets from the following four main lines: (1) financial sector. At present, the valuation of track stocks has far exceeded that of other sectors. There is a strong demand for make-up in the financial sector that underestimates the value, especially in the securities sector.
(2) Antiperiodic plate. In the fourth quarter, the marginal demand for exports and inventory replenishment weakened, and the counter cyclical sector may perform under the cross cyclical macroeconomic regulation and control.
(3) Epidemic damaged plate. With the continuous increase of vaccination, the damaged plate of the epidemic in the early stage will usher in valuation and repair, and attention can be paid to aviation, airport, hotel, catering, tourism, cinema and other directions.
(4) Undervalued sector. In the fourth quarter, U.S. bond yields may continue to rise, and the market will focus more on the matching between valuation and performance. The high valued institutional group sector may usher in adjustment, and the low valued sector can be used as bottom position defense, focusing on real estate, utilities and the media.
Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) pointed out that pays attention to the sectors with high prosperity, sustainable performance, matching growth and valuation, and steady rise in roe . It is suggested to pay attention to: first, pay attention to the consumption, medicine and other sectors with large early correction and defensive attributes, and focus on the fine molecular sectors with smooth price transmission.
Second, pay attention to the military industry sector with low correlation with the economic cycle. There are many early pullbacks, but the medium and long-term growth is relatively determined. At the same time, the performance of the third quarterly report is better.
Third, focus on enterprises with high prosperity in the downstream, high bargaining power in the midstream, or integrated industrial chain, such as new energy, semiconductor, high-end equipment manufacturing, etc. Fourth, pay attention to the post epidemic cycle, including shipping, airport, tourism, commerce, film and television, etc.
