Looking back on Tuesday's A-share market, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock rebound pattern as a whole. The Shanghai index and Shenzhen composite index showed relatively strong performance, showing a pulsed upward pattern throughout the day. Among them, the Shenzhen Composite Index rose by more than 1%, and the Shanghai composite index was only one step away from 3600 points; The gem refers to the rapid rise in the opening, followed by a gradual decline, and the performance of the whole day is relatively differentiated.
As stated by Chuancai securities, under the background of continuous decline in trading volume, slowing macroeconomic growth and still existing overseas risks, it is recommended to pay more attention to the direction with defensive nature. There are certain opportunities for the direction with stable performance, small early increase and good expectation of the third quarterly report.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities pointed out that the Shanghai index rose and closed red on Tuesday, the individual stock sector rose more or fell less, and the profit-making effect is preferred. The transaction volume of the two cities is moderate. It is expected that the short-term market is expected to gradually shake and stabilize, and pay attention to the change of plate rotation rhythm and volume energy. In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, food and beverage, medicine, electrical equipment, chemical industry, TMT and other industries.
In terms of the future market, Guosheng securities mentioned that there is no obvious main theme in the market, and the concept conversion is fast . On the whole, under the overall stable tone of market liquidity, the market still needs to wait for enterprises to steadily pick up the upward trend. Among them, is mainly affected by the uncertainty caused by the fluctuation of the energy market. It is necessary to be cautious about the fluctuation risk . Operationally, as listed companies gradually begin to disclose the third quarterly report, the market may open the expected speculation based on the performance of the third quarterly report, and can actively pay attention to the trading opportunities of individual stocks with clear growth expectations.
In addition, Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) believes that from the perspective of the recent market, there are three characteristics: first, the transaction volume is relatively low. The transaction volume continued to exceed trillion before the National Day festival, but did not appear after the festival. The transaction volume on many recent trading days fell below trillion; 2、 At present, the rotation speed of the plate has accelerated, and no new trend main line has been formed. The market presents the characteristics of stock game - the industries with the highest rise last week generally performed poorly in September, while the industries with the highest decline generally performed more prominently in September; 3、 Institutional views and expectations are chaotic and differences have increased significantly, especially on loose policy, inflation transmission and whether the valuation of popular tracks can continue to improve. it is expected that this phenomenon in the market will last for a period of time and is generally in a confused period .
Investigating the reasons behind it, the institution further said that it includes three aspects: first, there is still a certain pressure on economic and financial data in the short term; Second, monetary policy faces a dilemma; Third, the peripheral market is facing uncertainty. At the operational level, in terms of positions, it is recommended that medium positions should not be too radical. In terms of sectors, attention is focused on benefiting from policy support and continuous upward industrial prosperity, such as new energy vehicle industry chain, photovoltaic, wind power, semiconductor, etc.
Macroscopically, Donghai Securities said that the overall economic data in September was lower than expected, which was mainly affected by the strict real estate regulation, dual control of energy consumption and the rise of the base in the same period last year. The trend continued in July and August, and the downward pressure on the economy continued to appear. However, the export growth rate was still higher than expected, the toughness of foreign demand was strong, and the overall domestic demand was weak. The manufacturing industry recovered well. the disturbing factors such as short-term car core shortage have not been significantly alleviated, and the real estate investment risk is or backward. It is expected that the economy may still be under pressure in the fourth quarter .
In terms of operation strategy, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) puts forward the configuration under the dilemma: Mao index + Bank + infrastructure cyclical products . ① Valuation profit matching degree: pb-roe shows that machinery, building materials, steel, military industry, household appliances and light industry are dominant, and PEG (future forecast) shows that banking, transportation, chemical industry, steel, mining and nonferrous metals are dominant.
2. The index of steady growth of Baijiu index will appear in the next 6-12 months. The biggest advantage of the white horse in 2018-2020 years is that it is steady. The nominal GDP growth rate is expected to decrease from 21 11-12% to 22 7-8%. The net profit of all A has decreased from 21 30-35% to 22 years.
③ Banks: in the stage of bottom building and recovery of social finance in history, the relative income of banks was driven by wide credit. Q3 performance has a high probability of improvement month on month. ④ Cycle: the recent cycle decline is related to the marginal liberalization of the supply side. In the fourth quarter, the demand side logic of infrastructure development was strengthened, and more preference was given to infrastructure volume related cyclical products, such as building materials, transportation, construction machinery, steel, etc.
In addition, Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) said that needs to pay more attention to the sectors with high industry prosperity, sustainable performance, matching growth and valuation, and steady rise in roe. It is suggested to pay attention to: first, pay attention to the consumption, medicine and other sectors with large early correction and defensive attributes, and focus on the fine molecular sectors with smooth price transmission. Second, pay attention to the military industry sector with low correlation with the economic cycle. There are many early pullbacks, but the medium and long-term growth is relatively determined. At the same time, the performance of the third quarterly report is better. Third, focus on enterprises with high prosperity in the downstream, high bargaining power in the midstream, or integrated industrial chain, such as new energy, semiconductor, high-end equipment manufacturing, etc. Fourth, pay attention to the post epidemic cycle, including shipping, airport, tourism, commerce, film and television, etc.
