Looking back on Thursday’s A-share market, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a weak adjustment pattern as a whole. The three major A-share indexes opened low across the board, and the Shanghai index gradually weakened, while the gem index rebounded in the session, even turned red for a time, then followed the Shanghai index down, fell further in the afternoon, and finally closed down across the board.
As mentioned in Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , at present, the market continues to weaken. Although there is a certain involvement of bottom reading funds, it is still necessary to observe whether the market can stabilize effectively. It is not suitable to blindly copy the bottom . In terms of operation, investors can keep low positions or short positions to wait and see, wait for the market to stabilize effectively, and then choose the varieties that have been adjusted in place and have a clear industry prospect to intervene.
For the future, Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) said that the pullback of the short-term index can be regarded as a small three wave adjustment since the fall of 3723 points in mid September; Given that the market index has just fallen below the moving average and the adjustment time is still short, the market needs time to further digest the relevant bad news. the ideal opportunity for the future lies in : due to the end of the financial report disclosure and the fact that the Federal Reserve’s taper probability landed on November 4 and superimposed commodity futures, such as the price of coal futures fell at the current rate, it will also roughly fall to the coal price limit level including freight within 2-3 trading days; At that time, the market was full of bad news, and the oversold rebound driven by market sentiment repair is expected to take advantage of the trend.
It is noteworthy that Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) believes that the future trend of index depends on whether high-end stocks lose money. If they make up for the decline in a large area, they need to wait patiently for the end of the adjustment . However, in late October, there was intensive disclosure of corporate quarterly reports. It is expected that the overall high growth of the three quarterly reports of the whole a will continue, and the selection of high boom stocks is one of the important strategies at present. In addition, under the policy dividend expectation, the market risk appetite is expected to improve, and A-Shares are still in a “renewable period”.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) mentioned that high-quality growth is still the main line of configuration. Overseas, the rise of inflation expectations has raised investors’ expectations of the Fed’s interest rate hike, but the capital market has sufficient expectations, resulting in a small probability of panic selling. In China, there were marginal adjustments in policies such as real estate resident loans, guaranteed supply and stable prices and local bond issuance. There was no stall risk in the economy in the fourth quarter. China ushered in many important meetings at the end of the year. Under the expectation of policy dividends, the market risk appetite is expected to improve, and A-Shares are still in the “acceptable period”. in late October, the intensive disclosure of enterprise quarterly reports was ushered in. It is expected that the overall growth of the three quarterly reports of the whole a will continue. Selecting high boom stocks and avoiding thunderstorm stocks are one of the important strategies at present.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) further expressed that it is recommended to pay attention to: 1) key financial support and industries with high prosperity in the third quarterly report, such as “new energy and new energy vehicles”. 2) The Preliminary Valuation experienced adjustment, and the consumer industries with the advantage of stable performance growth in the fourth quarter welcomed the layout period, such as “food and beverage, medicine”, etc. The theme investment focuses on “expanding the connotation of carbon neutralization (green industry)”.
In the macro aspect, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) pointed out that the Reform Commission has studied the inclusion of coal in the scope of commodities to stop profiteering. The high profitability of relevant sectors is expected to be difficult to maintain. Combined with the trend of low-carbon transformation, it is recommended to deal with the cycle sector carefully. The consumption sector will be revived, among which, the low valuation and profitability of automobiles or Baijiu are rising or rising. Meanwhile, the consumption of tourism, hotels and other leisure services will be faced with greater uncertainty due to the epidemic.
In addition, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) pointed out that this round of market adjustment is mainly dragged down by structure rather than systematic adjustment . 1) Structural drag was the main reason: under the strong regulatory expectation, the cycle plate reappeared obvious adjustment today, in which coal led the decline with the introduction of price limiting measures and the rapid decline of coal prices, and the resource products industries such as chemical industry, steel and nonferrous metals were also greatly adjusted under the joint influence.
2) There is no risk of systematic adjustment in the market: the disturbance of power and production restriction worried by the market at the molecular end in the early stage is gradually ironed, and the expected correction of standard reduction at the denominator end has been fully corrected. In the future, there is no risk of systematic adjustment in the market with the easing of market concerns about real estate risk and the decline of policy uncertainty.
In terms of operational strategy, the agency said that maintaining the judgment of “standing at the starting point of style switching” and “undervalued harvest season” since October, configuration logic has shifted from cycle to consumption, and from early high boom attack to undervalued defense . Specifically, the current consumption expectation has come to an end and is in the best configuration window. 1) The negative expectation is gradually digested: the expectation of consumption tax reform in the early stage has brought great negative impact, which has been gradually digested at present.
2) Many signals of expected improvement in the consumer sector can also be observed from the perspective of medium and micro level: on the one hand, the current cyclical expectations of some industries have been reversed. For example, the data of breeding sows in the pig industry from June to August have decreased month on month, and the industry fundamentals are expected to come out of the bottom. On the other hand, the price increases of Foshan Haitian Flavouring And Food Company Ltd(603288) and Angel Yeast Co.Ltd(600298) in September also kicked off the price increase of consumer goods.
3) Improvement of trading structure: from the perspective of fund positions in the third quarter, the proportion of positions in the consumer sector decreased again, and the micro trading structure was significantly improved. At present, it can be observed that the profit growth expectation of the consumer sector is gradually bottoming out, while the divergence of profit expectation is gradually rising, which means that the improvement of consumption expectation is still in the early stage, and the expected improvement is just beginning to reflect to the stock price, and consumption is in the best layout window.
In addition, Guosheng securities mentioned that if the main line of the market further focuses on topics such as lithium battery, photovoltaic and cycle, we can pay attention to the bargain hunting opportunities of individual stocks with large adjustment range in the early stage of relevant sectors . In terms of operation, a large inflow of funds from the north will drive the market sentiment to turn in the short term, or drive the market trading popularity, but it is necessary to be cautious about the impact of the market falling below the support.
