Looking back on Monday's A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low. After the opening was once down, they rebounded and turned red one after another. Then the stock index ran above the red market. Unfortunately, the Shanghai index fell back and turned green at the end of the day, while the Shenzhen Component index barely maintained the red market.
As mentioned in Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , the index continues the shock pattern, and the market sentiment has improved significantly compared with last week. From the current trend, it is more likely to make an upward breakthrough after the shock. The technology stocks with deep adjustment in the early stage can be paid attention to. Recently, the military industry unit has been gradually paid more attention by the market. You can pay attention to the changes of relevant news, and the core military mainframe factory can also pay appropriate attention.
In terms of the future market, Guokai Securities said that it is expected that it is still difficult to break the shock situation in November, and the probability of forming an important trend is small. Taking into account the downward pressure on the macro economy, the high PPI and the high upward pressure on prices, the market sentiment tends to be cautious. Institutions may adjust the position structure to prepare for the settlement within the year on the one hand and start to layout the spring Market in 2022 on the other hand.
The agency further put forward suggestions. In November, it is mainly cautious and conservative. In the first half of the month, the market has certain expectations for the high-level meeting, which is expected to stabilize the market risk preference. In addition, the position tendency of the third quarterly report institutions is obvious, and the high-quality enterprises that can appropriately layout the industrial chain such as green energy and new energy vehicles can wait for the opportunity to absorb low in the second half of the month. Industries that are expected to show excess returns before the end of the year, such as banks Non bank finance, food and beverage, etc. in addition, look for varieties with stable growth in the third quarter and good expectation in the annual report from bottom to top.
Aijian securities also pointed out that the market is expected to fluctuate repeatedly in this region. After the disclosure of the third quarterly report, the uncertainty of the performance is reduced and the market activity is expected to increase. However, due to the uncertainty of the overseas market still exists, the short-term action force is not strong. The shock pattern of the market will still be maintained. Once the market goes down to the bottom of the shock range again, we think it will provide short-term trading opportunities. On the whole, our caution remains the primary principle. Pay attention to the control of positions and income expectations, and wait patiently for the opportunity to appear.
Previously, Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) mentioned that overseas, after the landing of the Federal Reserve taper boots in early November, the market will pay more attention to the disturbance in advance of the time point of interest rate increase. From the official statement of the Federal Reserve, high inflation is still one of the important factors affecting the direction of policy. However, compared with overseas, China's monetary policy has more space. Under the goal of stable growth policy, macro liquidity is expected to remain relatively abundant in the fourth quarter. It is difficult for overseas monetary policy to turn to systemic risk in a shares. The market is still structured. The third quarterly report shows that the overall growth rate of A-share performance weakens, including the high growth of upstream cycle and high-end manufacturing performance, frequent highlights of new energy industry chain, and steady repair of bank performance.
In the macro aspect, YueKai Securities believes that "stagflation like" may continue to disturb the market in the short term, but in the long run, with the increasing downward pressure on the economy, "coordinating the connection of macro policies this year and next" and monetary policy is expected to start "cross cycle" regulation to maintain the overall abundance of macro liquidity, and monetary policy and credit policy are expected to turn to marginal easing.
In terms of operation strategy, YueKai securities further analyzed that there are several ideas for the current configuration: 1) in foreign countries, the taper probability will come in the fourth quarter. In China, under the situation of "guaranteed supply", the constraints on the supply side are expected to be gradually reduced, and the PPI is expected to gradually decline after peaking in the fourth quarter. The trend of crude oil or an important factor affecting the trend, Therefore, we propose to gradually shrink and cash inflation transactions in the fourth quarter, especially some inflation transactions priced in China.
2) Under balanced allocation, focus on tapping high-quality low-end varieties, especially the low absorption opportunities of large consumption sectors with large decline this year. Although the overall performance of the large consumer sector in the third quarter is expected to be relatively flat under the background of the continuous expansion of the scissors gap between PPI and CPI. On the one hand, the sporadic and repeated epidemic situation has prevented the expected repair market of the epidemic damaged sector from coming. On the other hand, the price of upstream raw materials has remained high since this year and the residents' willingness to consume is not strong, The downward conduction path is not smooth, so the cost side is facing greater pressure. However, we expect that in the fourth quarter, with the peak decline of PPI, the cost pressure will be gradually relieved. At that time, the consumption profit is expected to stabilize or improve month on month. It is recommended to focus on the high-quality large consumption leading companies with alpha attribute.
3) Stick to the medium and long-term allocation opportunities of high growth sectors. From the third quarterly report, the performance of the growth sector represented by new energy is still bright, the institutional funds are still heavily loaded and even the overweight sector shows that they are optimistic about it, the allocation logic has not been falsified, and the expectation that the monetary policy and credit policy will shift to marginal easing in the fourth quarter is superimposed. At that time, the relatively loose liquidity environment is conducive to the performance of the high growth sector, It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the high boom and high-end manufacturing direction represented by new energy and the investment opportunities of securities companies and other sectors with relative stagflation in the early stage of boom diffusion.
