Looking back on Thursday’s A-share market, both Shanghai and Shenzhen opened high. At the beginning of the session, the stock index fluctuated rapidly and rose again in the afternoon, while the Shenzhen component index continued to operate at a high level. Throughout the day, the industry and concept sectors started to rebound across the board, and the stock index maintained a high shock pattern.
As mentioned in Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , the rebound of the index on Thursday is in line with the expectations of the previous two days. At present, the market is still in a wide shock pattern, in which there are signs of breakthrough on the small and medium-sized board and gem, but it still needs to be confirmed in the short term. However, the recovery of market sentiment is an obvious signal. Strategically, it is suggested to look for opportunities on the two main lines of new energy and supplementary rise of technology stocks, and pay attention to relevant opportunities in the anti inflation industry.
In terms of the future market, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) said that at present, the Shanghai index has initially shown a stabilization signal near 3500 points, and may still need shock consolidation in the future. Whether it can strengthen again still needs the boost of policy, capital and leading hot spots, it is recommended that investors pay careful attention to investment opportunities in core assets, new power and semiconductor industries .
Previously, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) pointed out that the operation idea of at the end of the year is mainly defensive, and there is a rebound expectation from the perspective of continuous adjustment in the short-term market, but it may be mainly shock in the medium and long term . From the perspective of proposed configuration, first, we still give priority to the opportunities related to the construction of new energy, photovoltaic, energy storage and new power system related to the adjustment of energy structure under the general trend of “double carbon”. Second, some high prosperity sub industries such as semiconductor, military industry and individual consumer goods are evenly configured.
In the macro aspect, Huaxin securities mentioned that the Federal Reserve announced that it would keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0% – 0.25% and announced that it would start the debt reduction plan in November. The overall argument of pigeon made the market rebound. However, in the long run, the Fed is likely to end its bond purchase in June next year and raise interest rates at least once in 2022. The nature of the global low interest rate environment has come to an end, will form a valuation downward pressure for the capital market, and undervalued blue chips will gradually become favored by the market .
In addition, Northeast Securities Co.Ltd(000686) believes that the style will not switch quickly and the layout boom will spread the market. The recent market performance has gradually verified that the style we repeatedly stressed in the early stage will not be quickly switched to financial blue chip, consumption white horse and other sectors. The underlying logic of style switching is the conversion of profit comparative advantage.
In terms of operation strategy, the agency further analyzed that in the past, when the main line is unclear, the market will embrace two types of varieties : 1) the old direction of residual temperature: driving Beijing Dynamic Power Co.Ltd(600405) in event or policy catalysis, high prosperity or prosperity expectation, and has begun to rise before the end of the main line market, After the end of the main line market, the relative advantages of the valuation boom are highlighted, so as to quickly obtain the favor of funds and usher in the accelerated rise; 2) New direction in the Ascendant: the driving force mainly comes from the high boom or boom expectation, and only after the end of the main line market for a period of time can there be enough driving force to be recognized by the market.
Southwest Securities Co.Ltd(600369) pointed out that in combination with the current market situation, in the fourth quarter, it is recommended to pay attention to the military industry, new energy, medicine and post epidemic cycle sector . Among them, military industry and new energy have long-term logic, while medicine and post epidemic cycle, we think there are periodic rebound opportunities in the fourth quarter, which is worth grasping.
Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) said that focused on the market layout at the end of the year, focused on the main line return of the new energy sector, and focused on the oversold rebound opportunities of medicine and consumption . In the market at the end of the year, securities companies may be the first to respond, and the main line of the market at the end of the year is still the new energy sector with long-term logic and no bad short-term performance. In addition, there may be opportunities for oversold rebound in consumption and medicine at the end of the year. In addition, continue to pay attention to the segments in the midstream capital goods sector benefiting from China’s and overseas capital expenditure, such as intelligent manufacturing. At the same time, the subdivided industrial chain benefiting from new energy in the basic chemical industry also deserves attention.
Dongguan Securities believes that the performance growth rate of Listed Companies in the third quarter of 2021 showed a high downward trend, indicating that the performance repair has entered the later stage, and the subsequent overall operation will return to normalization. In a single quarter, there were seven industries with positive month on month profit growth, namely mining, non-ferrous metals, building materials, electrical equipment, food and beverage, electronics and banking. Compared with the same period in 2019, the profits of most industries exceeded the pre epidemic level, among which communications, non-ferrous metals, steel, electrical equipment, electronics and chemical industry led the increase, all exceeding 100%.
According to the industrial chain, due to the relatively strong impact of commodity prices in the short term, the profit growth of raw materials in the middle and upper reaches is still relatively fast. However, with the management increasing the regulation of upstream resource prices, it will help to stabilize the profit growth of the middle and upper reaches manufacturing industry. In addition, some industries in the consumer sector have not recovered to the pre epidemic level, especially agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, commercial trade and real estate. Recently, the downstream consumption transfer cost has been strengthened, which is conducive to the recovery of industry profits. Pay attention to the impact of future raw material price changes on the profits of the enterprise industrial chain. Subsequently, with the gradual dilution of the base factor, the performance growth rate will further converge and the industrial structural differences will expand.
