Looking back on Monday's A-share market, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a strong shock pattern as a whole. The three major A-share indexes rose and fell at the opening, with obvious concussion in the morning. In the afternoon, the stock index rose rapidly, then gradually fell back, and the rise narrowed further. Fortunately, the three major indexes still closed in red.
As mentioned in Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) , the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets consolidated weakly in the morning on Monday, closed up slightly, rose briefly in the afternoon and then fell back, and the Shanghai index failed to recover 3500 points. Although the turnover broke another trillion, it was significantly reduced, the market wait-and-see mood was strong, and the overall layout was still in the period of adjustment. In October, exports still showed strong resilience, with a year-on-year growth rate and a decline month on month, which verified our previous view that exports still have some support in the fourth quarter, but the growth rate may gradually decline. On the whole, exports will face great downward pressure in the coming months. In October, the manufacturing PMI is again below the critical value, economic uncertainty still exists in the short term. The change of epidemic situation at home and abroad may be one of the key influencing factors, and the market may still maintain the structural market .
As for the future market, Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) believes that the current market lacks significant leading hot spots, and the stock game characteristics are obvious. Whether the stock index can break through the market situation in the future still needs external boost . It is suggested to pay close attention to the changes in policy and capital. It is expected that the Shanghai index is more likely to fluctuate slightly in the short term, and the gem is more likely to rise slightly in the short term. Investors are advised to pay close attention to investment opportunities in energy metals, new materials and some cyclical industries in the short term, and continue to pay attention to investment opportunities in undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that under the overall stable tone of market liquidity, the market still needs to wait for enterprises to steadily pick up the upward trend, which is mainly affected by the downward trend of PP and uncertain expectations caused by inflation. Operationally, with the end of the third quarterly report of listed companies, the market may be able to open the company's valuation improvement expectations with clear performance context, and actively pay attention to the trading opportunities of individual stocks with clear growth expectations .
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) said that the fourth quarter of is generally the time window for the annual ranking and layout of Chinese institutions next year, and the market fluctuation may be amplified again . It is suggested that investors should control their positions before the market direction is unclear. Radical investors can pay attention to the growth boom track, but pay attention to the emotional impact of Musk's plan to reduce Tesla shares on the new energy industry, Investors in the stable category may wish to pay attention to the bottom varieties, such as industries damaged by the epidemic and large undervalued finance as a defense and cautiously pursue the rise.
In the long run, Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) points out that there are many opportunities in the first half of 2022 and relatively flat in the second half. In the first half of the year, the policy focuses on steady growth, and it is suggested to focus on the rise of high-quality blue chips; The policy returns to normal in the second half of the year. It is suggested to focus on the relatively prosperous plate . At the same time, the rebalancing between development and security of the reform policies in the "five areas" is an important focus. In terms of funds, the proportion of "long money" in incremental funds will be increased, and the pricing power of institutions will be significantly enhanced. In terms of style, blue chip is the main investment line throughout the year. In terms of configuration, it is suggested to focus on midstream manufacturing and consumption in the first half of the year with more opportunities; Focus on consumption and technology in the relatively flat second half of the year.
In terms of operation strategy, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) mentioned that at present, with the stability of liquidity, the profit-making effect tends to be stable, and the market volatility is significantly reduced. investors can prepare : on the one hand, investors can make advance layout based on the idea of early strength and maintaining or improving the prosperity next year, such as the subdivision of scientific and technological semiconductors and new energy; On the other hand, we also need to guard against the possibility of market adjustment caused by local bad due to the lack of incremental funds, so we can layout defensive sectors such as consumption and military industry.
Anxin Securities pointed out that it is recommended that investors actively grasp the layout opportunities in the market shock environment, focus on "Ning portfolio + CPI" and focus on three clues: first, the high prosperity and long track represented by "Ning portfolio" (medium and long-term continued bullish); Second, CPI price rise chain (short-term opportunities for individual stocks to drive the plate); Third, new directions of industries such as meta universe. Focus on industries: wind power, new energy vehicles (lithium batteries, auto parts), food and beverage, agriculture, photovoltaic, semiconductor (high-end chips / equipment), military industry, etc. The theme focuses on metauniverse, carbon neutralization.
In addition, Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) said that near the end of the year, the expected focus at the denominator end will shift downward from the probability of Q4 standard reduction to the re strengthening of Q1 loose expectation in 2022. Structurally, consumer / financial real estate and other sectors with the advantage of undervaluation are expected to benefit the most. pay attention to the price increase signal, and consumption is in an excellent layout window.
In terms of industry configuration, the agency further analyzed that changed from cycle to consumption, from attack of overvalued value to defense of undervalued value . 1) consumption: gradually taking the expected bottom, recommending the direction of Baijiu / pig / dairy / auto parts with supporting performance and negative expectations. 2) Securities companies / banks: driven by wealth management, securities companies will grow twice and the market continuity will exceed expectations. Bank Q3 profits will continue to rise and asset quality will continue to improve; 3) New energy: the direction of high prosperity is still scarce. New energy vehicles / photovoltaic / green power and other directions are recommended.
