Looking back on the A-share market last week, the market index fluctuated mainly, and the performance of individual stocks was relatively strong, but the rotation of market hot spots is still obvious. Therefore, it is still doubtful whether the future index can continue to stabilize and rise. Therefore, the overall operation should still be cautious and not too radical.
As mentioned in Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) , the index in the past five trading days is still dominated by shock trend, and the turnover and market activity have dropped slightly. In terms of industry, real estate, national defense and military industry, building materials, communications, non-ferrous metals and other sectors led the increase. Last week, only the food and beverage and mining sectors closed down, and the mining sector made a sharp correction again. We had warned the risks of relevant sectors for many times before, and the performance of the industry basically met our configuration suggestions in the previous period.
For the future, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) further analysis shows that the overall fundamental support of A-Shares is strong, and the upward shock pattern is expected to continue in the medium and short term. It is recommended that investors continue to pay attention to the main line of performance boom and the direction of scientific and technological growth. The first is the new energy and military industries where the boom is expected to continue under the strong support of industrial policies. The second is the downstream manufacturing and consumption direction in which the decline of upstream prices boosts profits and repairs expectations. in the medium and long term, we suggest investors continue to focus on three directions . consumption sector : medicine and consumption upgrading. long term high-quality track : carbon neutralization, scientific and technological innovation and new infrastructure. stable bottom warehouse variety : big finance.
Haitong strategy points out that the restless market of A-Shares at the end of the year and the beginning of the year is an inherent law, which originates from the calendar effect of policy and fundamentals . If the market is weak from July to October, the restless market tends to start earlier and cross the year. The cross year market is expected to start. The background is that the valuation of A-Shares is acceptable, micro funds are abundant, the driving force comes from the implementation of wide credit policy, and the enterprise roe will continue to rise. Balanced allocation, such as undervalued financial and real estate, high prosperity hard technology (new energy, semiconductor).
Guosheng Securities said that the confirmation of the bottom of credit has consolidated the basis of the year-end market and is conducive to the regression of pessimistic expectations . In the early stage, due to the economic downturn or the continuous suppression of credit risk, the sector is expected to usher in valuation repair. During the year, the probability of credit environment is mainly stable, and the market is expected to hover between “credit bottom” and “economic bottom”, especially in terms of policy strength. The main line may still swing between stable growth and high growth. At the beginning of next year, with the support of financial advance and allocation financing, small refinancing and carbon emission reduction support tools, there is a high probability that the credit conditions will change from stable to wide. At that time, the advantages of value stocks will be further highlighted.
Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) believes that at present, A-Shares are still in the stage of “showing the pressure of stable economic growth + counter cyclical and cross cyclical policies waiting to be launched + enterprise performance vacuum period” . With the goal of stable growth and employment, macro liquidity is expected to remain relatively abundant in the fourth quarter, helping the “cross year market” of A-Shares to unfold as scheduled. The launch of carbon emission reduction support tools and the establishment of the Beijing stock exchange represent the inclination of industrial and financial policies to support “new energy, hard technology, innovative and specialized small and medium-sized enterprises”. High quality growth is not only the direction of capital allocation of foreign capital and institutions, but also the main line of medium and long-term allocation. Under the background of “carbon neutralization”, the new energy industry chain will be a sustainable and high-profile industry in the future. Lithium, photovoltaic, energy storage, wind power and other sectors will be active in the future. In terms of industry configuration, it is recommended to focus on growth and undervalued value.
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned that performance window period, and the concept theme becomes the short-term main line . We believe that the concept theme has become the short-term main line. On the one hand, it is because the disclosure of the third quarterly report has ended, and A-Shares have ushered in a performance window period lasting nearly five months. During this period, policies, expectations and themes have the upper hand over performance. In the expectation that liquidity will not tighten, various conceptual themes have become the direction of short-term capital pursuit. In the medium-term allocation, we still maintain the allocation idea from seeking high growth to seeking stability, focusing on the consumption index + deterministic growth products.
For the concept theme at the end of the year, in terms of operation strategy, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) believes that it can be found from the following three perspectives: first, policy guidelines: seed industry revitalization, methane emission reduction and military industry. the market does not lack policy expectations, but there is a lack of policy implementation. We especially emphasize the expected wind vane of the Shenzhen Reform Commission meeting. The policies of the Shenzhen Reform Commission that have not yet been implemented involve the themes of Internet, media games, education, manufacturing + informatization. Methane emission reduction deserves attention. China and the United States issued a joint declaration on strengthening climate action. The methane emission reduction process may exceed expectations. We pay attention to three main investment lines: ① coalbed methane collection and power generation; ② Landfill gas treatment and sewage treatment; ③ Greenhouse gas and water quality monitoring. Driven by performance improvement and policies, the prosperity of military industry continued to rise.
Second, reverse the theme: food inflation, tariff reduction and midstream manufacturing. the theme of food inflation mainly involves condiments, dairy products and aquaculture. Attention should be paid to tariff reduction and exemption, focusing on machinery, electronics, automobiles, household appliances, etc. In addition, based on the expected reversal next year, the gross profit of the midstream manufacturing industry may regain next year, typically such as the middle and lower reaches of power and gas, auto parts, machinery and electrical equipment.
Third, long-term concepts: tumor detection, machine vision, coffee, virtual reality, etc. the short-term sharp rise of related industries in the long-term concept is often promoted by the increase of industrial capital holdings. According to statistics, since the third quarter of this year, Tier-1 capital such as Tencent, Hillhouse, Sequoia, Jingwei and IDG have focused on the following fields: Life Technology (tumor, detection and medical devices), hard technology (information security, intelligence and machine vision), pan consumption (coffee and tea, cross-border E-commerce and script), and virtual reality (AR, VR and 3D).
Anxin Securities said that currently focuses on grasping the valuation repair opportunities of undervalued sectors , including undervalued small cap stocks, real estate chain – real estate / banking / household appliances / building materials (policy margin relaxed, midstream cost pressure decreased), communication / consumer electronics (business transformation), medicine (medical insurance negotiation is better than expected), food and beverage (price increase expectation) and other valuation repair opportunities. Continue to hold the high prosperity and long track represented by “Ning combination”, including photovoltaic, new energy vehicles (auto parts, lithium batteries), semiconductors (high-end chips / equipment), military industry, etc.
