Looking back on Thursday’s A-share market, Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock adjustment pattern as a whole. The three major A-share indexes opened low and walked low in the morning, and their performance was relatively weak. Although the index showed a wave of upward signs in the afternoon, its strength was weak and failed to turn red, and the stock index fell again in the late afternoon.
As mentioned in Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) , the market was weak and volatile on Thursday, but the adjustment range was still within a reasonable range, and there were still more than 70 individual stocks trading on the disk. The market performance was very benign and there was a certain profit-making effect. considering that the current economic fundamentals and the peripheral environment do not support the sharp upward breakthrough of the stock index, it will be a high probability event for the short-term market to continue to fluctuate in a narrow range . It is suggested that investors continue to bargain hunting and pay attention to the rotation opportunities of large finance, technology, low consumption and other varieties.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that at present, there is no continuous profit-making effect between plates, and some are only high-low switching, which is slightly unfavorable to gathering popularity. In terms of technical form, the upper part of the current stock index is suppressed by the 20 day short-term average, while the lower part is supported by the annual line. It is in a super small convergence state. There is no trend direction in the short term, and the convergence shock or the main tone. in terms of operation, it is recommended to choose the machine to absorb low in batches and actively participate in the “cross year market” . Focus on military industry, semiconductor, green power, food and other directions in configuration.
In terms of the future market, Huaxin securities mentioned that after missing the best rebound time window, the market entered the tangled market stage as scheduled. In terms of short cycle, the probability of Shanghai stock index will remain in the range of 3450-3550 points. For investors, they can continue to wait for new adjustment opportunities, especially in the range of 3480-3450 of Shanghai stock index, Continue to pay attention to the mainstream track (wind power + UHV), undervalued blue chip varieties (consumption + bank), and the dilemma reversal industry (breeding) under the background of driving CPI upward.
Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) pointed out that the pattern of shock consolidation of the Shanghai index around 3500 points remains. It is expected that the short-term slight shock of the Shanghai index is more likely, and the short-term slight consolidation of the gem is more likely. We recommend investors to pay close attention to the investment opportunities of new energy lithium battery, Aerospace Military Industry and some cycle industries in the short term , and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line .
Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) said that at present, the market operation direction is uncertain, the narrow range shock is the main tone, the policy expectation will still be the key factor affecting the market, and the short-term steady growth is not significant. The period before the end of the year and the first quarter of next year may be the policy observation period. Only after the expectation is clear can the market perform , and the short-term market has a high probability of shock in the range of 3450-3550. In terms of operation, the expected improvement of manufacturing and consumption in the middle and lower reaches brought about by the easing of upstream price pressure is an opportunity. In the medium term, the partial growth style may still be an important direction.
Haitong strategy believes that the asset allocation of residents and institutions has gradually changed and the proportion of equity has increased since 2019. The real estate tax reform pilot is expected to increase the real estate holding cost, reduce the non-standard scale and yield, and strengthen the migration of asset allocation. at present, A-Shares are similar to U.S. stocks after 1980. Industrial upgrading raises roe and configuration migration pushes up the valuation center. Long bull and slow bull can be expected .
In terms of operation strategy, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) said that the current market differentiation is obvious, track stocks stabilize, underestimate the plate and return to the shock pattern . At the operational level, it is recommended to focus on the shareholding of lithium battery, military industry, non-ferrous rare earth and chemical industry, and actively look for long opportunities. The undervalued sector focuses on Baijiu consumption, innovative drugs, media, immunotherapy and other industries with more obvious reversal.
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) pointed out that the layout of transition period will become the main tone in the coming year. While maintaining balance, the configuration will gradually shift to growth . At the stage of bottom grinding on the left side in the fourth quarter and the transition to next year, it should be biased towards the growth track again. On the one hand, after mid September, the market fluctuated downward, and some risks have been released; On the other hand, PPI probably peaked in the fourth quarter, with limited suppression on monetary policy. Under the current downward pressure on growth and the requirements of cross cycle adjustment, there will be some support at the liquidity level. According to the three-stage performance of valuation → performance → valuation in the growth market, the growth market in the next stage will enter the last stage of valuation from performance support.
Therefore, while maintaining a balanced configuration, the agency further said that gradually shifted to a strong growth track , and continued to focus on the photovoltaic, wind power, energy storage and new energy vehicle industry chain under the concept of green power; In terms of consumption, we focus on structural opportunities, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery related to the low inflation environment, cars rebounding at the bottom of the boom, as well as banks and real estate with defensive attributes and undervalued value.
China Post securities mentioned that considering the recent performance, valuation and profitability of the industry, we focus on the undervalued sector in the near future: the risk appetite is reduced in the period of market shock, and the light industry manufacturing and transportation with historically undervalued value have good defensive characteristics; The heat of the main line of new energy is not reduced, and the traditional production capacity is difficult to release due to the impact of environmental protection policies. We are optimistic about new energy such as wind power and Optoelectronics in the upstream, which is in line with the carbon neutralization policy and the future energy development direction. We can continue to pay attention to the industries related to electrical equipment in the midstream and new energy vehicles in the downstream; Science and technology themes benefit from the boost of high-tech themes by the opening of the Beijing stock exchange. Recently, the electronics and computer industries have rebounded continuously and can continue to pay attention in the short term.
