Looking back on the A-share market last week, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets showed a shock adjustment market as a whole. In the first half of the week, the Shanghai index walked out of the positive trend, fell back at the 3600 point mark in the third session of last week, and dissipated the early gains in the second half of the week. On the whole, there is pressure and support in the current market, showing a game pattern of stock funds.
As stated by Guosheng securities, the current high-level box shock trend of the index remains unchanged, in the short term, the adjustment of the index is not over, and the mutant covid-19 strain will become an uncertain factor of the epidemic situation. In the short term, we should be cautious, but do not panic too much, watch more and wait for the boots to land . The market is still a pattern of rapid rotation of plates, with poor plate sustainability. It is not suitable to blindly follow the trend and catch up with hot spots in operation.
The agency further analyzed that it should be patient with new energy, photovoltaic, wind power and other boards with high uncertainty in policy and market prospects and wait for the opportunity to get on the bus after adjustment. In addition, the uncertainty of the epidemic situation strikes again, and there may be some speculation opportunities in vaccine, medicine and other sectors in the short term . The digital currency and mobile payment themes that rose sharply last Friday need to observe the sustainability of the future market.
In terms of the future market, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) pointed out that the impact of new mutant on A-Shares is limited, which is at most a short-term “false alarm”, and the cross-year market will continue to . Under China’s epidemic prevention mechanism, new overseas mutants are difficult to cause a systematic rebound of China’s epidemic situation, and have limited impact on the A-share market. Therefore, the big logic of the cross year market has not changed, if the global turmoil under the new mutant causes short-term fluctuations in a shares, it is a buying point worth grasping .
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) believes that the new strain will have an impact on market sentiment in the short term, but it will also bring a good opportunity to layout the cross-year blue chip market . Under the medium-term incremental capital layout and the institutional game at the end of the year, the blue chip main line represented by leading varieties in various industries will be clearer. In terms of configuration, the blue chip main line represented by the leading varieties of each plate will be clearer. It is suggested to continue to firmly focus on the layout of “three low positions”. It is suggested to focus on: varieties whose fundamentals are still expected to be low; Varieties with relatively low valuation; High boom varieties that are at a relatively low level after adjustment.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) securities also mentioned that attaches importance to the epidemic risk without excessive panic . Affected by the mutant covid-19 virus Omicron, the global financial market fluctuated. At present, the core concern is that the virus mutation may lead to the enhancement of immune evasion and transmission ability, which will drag down the process of economic recovery. Referring to the deductive context of delta virus after late June, its impact on A-Shares is similar to the “black swan” event, the marginal impact is gradually weakening, and the Chinese market more follows the endogenous logic.
Macroscopically, Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) said that the economic downturn in December may stabilize the weak, the decline in the profits of listed companies is expected to achieve a “soft landing”, the overall risk appetite continues to remain stable, at the same time, cross cycle regulation is fully opened, the word “stable” of monetary policy is at the head, and the probability of significant tightening of liquidity is low. The market will suffer a certain impact if the mutant virus strikes again, but referring to the past, this impact is often short-lived. Therefore, December is a better layout time point. At the level of industry configuration, while maintaining balanced configuration, it continues to shift to the growth style .
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) said that under the new variables of the epidemic, A-Shares may be relatively more resilient than overseas markets , and the policy expectation of internal steady growth may be a more key factor leading the market performance. the short-term path of the market may still have twists and turns, but there may be no need to be overly pessimistic. At present, the end of the year and the beginning of next year may be an important window period for policy strengthening, and the central economic work conference at the end of the year is an important observation node .
In terms of operation strategy, China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) further points out that the configuration continues to tilt towards policy expectations and the middle and downstream. 1) areas potentially supported by marginal change or force of policy , including industrial chains related to stable demand for real estate, potential consumption support areas, securities companies, etc.
2) This year has been adjusted, the valuation is not high, the middle and lower reaches of consumption with clear medium and long-term prospects, and stock selection from bottom to top, including food and beverage, medicine, household appliances, light industry and home furnishings, automobiles and parts, Internet and media, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, etc.
3) high prosperity manufacturing direction , including new energy vehicles, new energy and scientific and technological hardware semiconductors. Stock allocation is selected according to the change of prosperity degree of industrial chain links, with special attention to manufacturing opportunities in transmission and distribution upgrading, auto parts and other links.
In addition, Anxin securities mentioned that focuses on the stability of next year’s performance and the certainty of high prosperity . It is suggested to temporarily avoid some industries that may be affected by the outbreak of the epidemic. At present, the high prosperity and long track represented by “Ning combination” is mainly configured, including photovoltaic, new energy vehicles (auto parts, lithium resources, lithium batteries), CXO, military industry, etc. Continue to pay attention to the opportunities for valuation repair of food and beverage sectors. Avoid tourism, catering, aviation and other industries that may be affected by the outbreak of the epidemic.
