Looking back on Wednesday's A-share market, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low and consolidated at the beginning of the session. The Shanghai index quickly turned red and rose in the session, while the Shenzhen component index continued to fluctuate in the green position. In the afternoon, the stock index first rose and turned green, and then maintained shock adjustment. The Shanghai index strengthened again in the late trading and ushered in the intraday high, while the gem index and Shenzhen Composite Index performed relatively poorly.
As Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) mentioned, the three major A-share indexes rose and fell on Wednesday, showing differentiation. Overall, individual stocks in the Shanghai stock index showed a general upward trend, but the decline of major sectors such as new energy, rare earth and medical treatment dragged down the index. This indicates that the market style may change in the future. Gem refers to that as the weight is mostly concentrated in the medical and new energy industries, the trend is obviously weaker than the performance of individual stocks, and it is afraid to continue to explore in the future.
From a technical point of view, Dongguan Securities believes that the market continues the shock consolidation pattern, the net outflow of funds from the North ends and almost all flow into the Shanghai stock market, the individual stock sector generally rises, the market sentiment warms up, and the market volume can continue to remain above trillion yuan. It is not pessimistic as a whole. It is expected that the market is expected to stabilize and rebound, and pay attention to the rotation rhythm of the plate and the change of volume energy. In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, food and beverage, household appliances, electrical equipment, TMT and other industries.
In terms of the future market, BOC strategy points out that enters the market in December and enters the configuration market next year. The implementation of policy setting will break the situation that there is no main line in the current market . At present, under the stable credit expectation, there may be a phased market in the blue chip sector. In terms of industry allocation, the trend of new energy remained unchanged, the undervalued blue chip rebounded periodically, and the growth gradually entered the left allocation range. On the one hand, some undervalued sectors with long-term stagflation of stock prices and rebound of fundamentals in the early stage are expected to receive more capital attention; On the other hand, the new energy industry chain has profitability toughness and can obtain a certain valuation premium. Focus on the investment opportunities brought by specialization, special innovation and domestic substitution.
In addition, China Merchants Securities Co.Ltd(600999) said that the market of A-Shares often occurs at the end of the year and across the year. The law stems from the calendar effect and the double contributions of policy and fundamentals . Since 2017, the starting rhythm of "cross year market" has been moving forward. According to the statistics since 2009, the market at the end of the year and the beginning of the year has been restless, with an average of 41 trading days. The average increase of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 is 15.7%, and the cross year market increase at the beginning of 19 is as high as 36.8%. The driving factors are usually three points : 1) the expected improvement of liquidity. 2) Loose macroeconomic policies are expected to heat up. 3) The risk appetite in the vacuum period of fundamental data is improved.
According to further analysis by the agency, this year's cross year market is expected to start, "spring agitation" may start earlier, and there is a greater opportunity for the size index to resonate upward . there are four main reasons : 1) in the implementation of wide credit, the tension of real estate funds has eased and the issuance of special bonds can be expected. 2) The valuation of A-Shares is not expensive and the stock market is abundant in liquidity. Nearly 80% of the industries are near or below the valuation Center since 2010, and there are great repair opportunities; With the decline of upstream prices, the pressure on the cost side of the middle and lower reaches is relieved, and there is marginal room for improvement in Q4 profits. 3) The economic data is at a low level, the end of the year and the beginning of the year are at the cross cycle adjustment force window, and the economic work conference is about to be held. The market's expectations of steady growth and policy relaxation are expected to continue to heat up. 4) The overseas fed released the "Dove" signal, US stocks continued to reach new highs and created a favorable external environment.
In the macro aspect, Sealand Securities Co.Ltd(000750) pointed out that under the macro pressure next year, the growth rate of A-share performance will fall, the market driving force will shift from performance to valuation, the volatility will increase, the shock in the first half of the year will find the structure, and the financial belt index in the second half of the year. China's economic growth model has shifted from high-speed growth to high-quality development, the industrial drive has shifted from real estate infrastructure to Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) , the allocation of residents' assets has shifted from real estate to capital market, and the system construction of four beams and eight columns has been completed. In this process although there will be pain, it is on the right road, old and new .
In terms of operational strategy, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) also mentioned that two major policy themes and the medium-term determination of growth products + Mao index . ① The possible agitation in spring this year is more policy expectation than the strengthening of fundamental trend. It may form a conceptual theme with small cap stocks and secondary new shares as the carrier, focusing on methane emission reduction (coalbed methane collection, landfill, environmental protection monitoring) and power grid construction (power grid construction, energy storage, energy informatization, etc.).
② From the medium-term perspective, the mutant strain Omicron may delay the recovery of the industry damaged by the epidemic expected by the market again. Therefore, we continue to recommend deterministic growth products + consumption Mao index with low correlation with the epidemic. The core logic is that the growth will fall next year, and the allocation idea will change from high growth to stability. Focus on new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, military industry, etc; Baijiu, medicine, Internet leader.
Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) said that considering the background of downward fundamentals, relatively abundant macro capital and neutral and cautious mood, the systematic risks and overall opportunities of the A-share market are small, and the upward space of index trend is limited, but the market does not lack structural market, so we can focus on holding the investment opportunities brought by industry rotation and hot topics. focus on the setting tone of the central economic work conference in December and the specific direction and strength of support for the industry .
The agency further analyzed that in terms of industry configuration: (1) continue to pay attention to the key directions such as middle and upper reaches of new energy vehicles, photovoltaic, high-end equipment manufacturing, semiconductor, military industry and so on; (2) Combined with the performance price ratio of individual stocks and leading attributes, the left layout is appropriate, and gradually intervene in the undervalued and slow repair sectors such as communication, household appliances, medicine and securities companies.
In addition, Cinda securities mentioned that for next year's industry configuration suggestions: (1) the direction that can be configured throughout the year in the next year : military industry (a few high-end manufacturing industries whose supply and demand pattern will not deteriorate in 2022), Hotel & Aviation (the longer the epidemic is suppressed, the longer the reversal will be). (2) over allocation of finance in the next half of the year: the middle and later stages of economic downturn can be attacked, retreated and defended, the valuation is low, and the strength of steady growth will be gradually strengthened in the next half of the year. (3) on the left side, you can start to pay attention to computers, media, food and beverage, medicine, etc. : the valuation and institutional configuration have decreased a lot this year. Recently, they are in the process of quarterly rebound, and the new big logic market is still being explored. The opportunities for these sectors will gradually increase next year.
related information:
the peripheral market was "bloodwashed". Hong Kong stocks hit a new low this year. May A-Shares meet the allocation opportunity at the end of the year? (with the top 20 increase of Shanghai Shenzhen Hong Kong stock connect in November)
