Looking back on the A-share market last week, Shanghai and Shenzhen continued the structural market, with limited upside and downside space for the stock index, and there was obvious differentiation between the rise and fall of the plate. On the whole, the market sentiment was significantly weakened under the influence of the external market, and the A-share went out of the independent market; In addition, the new variant of covid-19 is expected to have limited negative impact on China’s A-share market.
As mentioned in Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) , the A-share market in 2021 shows the characteristics of systematic convergence and structural divergence, that is, the amplitude of the main broad-based index in the market has hit a record low, but the industry performance is relatively differentiated, and the dispersion of the rise and fall of the industry is at a historically high level. Drawing on history, this market feature appeared at the end of 2014. The final result is that the index fluctuation increases and the industry differentiation converges. The catalyst is mainly the force of macro policies, Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) believes that the current cross-year market is unfolding, and this feature is expected to be broken.
As for the future market, the Sinolink Securities Co.Ltd(600109) strategy team released a research report that suppressed the market first and then raised the market in the second half. At present, the market risk appetite is not high, and there is a certain margin of safety in the market . The agency believes that the main line of the market at the end of the year and the beginning of the year is still the new energy sector with long-term logic and no bad short-term performance; At the end of the year, there may be oversold rebound opportunities in the consumer sector and the pharmaceutical sector, and there may be short-term and fast opportunities in the securities sector.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that A-Shares may continue to be more resilient than overseas markets , and the policy expectation of internal stable growth is still the more key factor leading the market performance, there is no need to be overly pessimistic about the market. The end of the year to the beginning of next year may be an important window period for policy reinforcement , and the market performance may gradually tend to be positive. According to the industry allocation suggestions, the allocation continues to tilt towards the policy expectations and the middle and lower reaches.
In the macro aspect, Anxin Securities believes that the main contradiction in the future market will be transformed from “quasi stagflation” to “recession mode”, the policy orientation will tend to be loose, and the direction of policy force is expected to be: the financial force will be in front, the monetary policy will be “I-oriented” more flexible, the credit supply will be stable, and the total amount will be restructured. after the prime minister’s “notice” to reduce the reserve requirement, the central bank is expected to announce the reduction within December and replace the 950 billion MLF limit that will expire this month. In addition, the setting of economic policies for next year at the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and the central economic work conference in mid December and the disclosure of financial data in November are also expected to further clarify the expectation of economic stimulus policy . Higher risk appetite and loose policy space will give investors a good opportunity to layout the new year.
In addition, Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned that the policy dawn and agitation began. 1、 the restless upward market started, the real estate risk and policy stability maintenance that the market is most concerned about have a clear marginal change, the bottom line thinking of stable growth and stable employment has returned, and the restless core drive: downward pressure and policy expectation under the performance window.
2、 the probability of hard landing of real estate is reduced . Evergrande is a case of risk disposal, without secondary financial risks. The margin of real estate financing policy has warmed up and tends to be normalized. Tracking the third round of local auction, central enterprises and local state-owned enterprises to recover.
3、 The probability of standard reduction increased significantly . Before the Spring Festival, the probability of reducing the reserve requirement has increased significantly. The decision-making level has recognized the downward pressure on the economy and the impact of the epidemic, service industry and real estate on unemployment. Since October, it has continued to fine tune. The next six months will be the main window for China’s loose monetary policy, and the bottom of this round of credit is being built.
4、 The sharp decline of China concept shares belongs to the correction of high-risk assets , which is more likely to be affected by the correction of global high-risk assets. The epidemic has accelerated, and there has been an obvious correction of global high-risk assets including bitcoin, US NASDAQ and China concept shares.
In terms of operational strategy, the agency further analyzed that brokerage flag bearer + growth track + policy theme . 1、 Securities companies are expected to become the flag bearer of this round of agitation. In addition to the medium and long-term logic of wealth management, there are short-term policy support (liberalization of insurance and capital financing, pilot comprehensive account management), performance growth (transaction volume continues to be trillion yuan, Q4 high increase) + valuation advantage (pb1.7x & 48% quantile). Banks and real estate will also be beneficial to valuation repair, and the space and sustainability are expected to stabilize the economy after the RRR reduction.
2、 Growth track: photovoltaic, lithium battery, military industry. Next year, the growth rate of the whole a will drop, the growth track will increase, and the scarcity will continue to attract incremental funds. Recently, the public offering will pick up. With the expectation of loose liquidity, the investment of incremental funds will still flow into the growth track in the future. 3、 Policy theme: methane emission reduction, power grid, new infrastructure. The concept theme with small cap stocks and secondary new shares as the carrier, methane emission reduction (coalbed methane collection, landfill, environmental protection monitoring), power grid (power grid construction, energy storage, energy informatization), new infrastructure (metropolitan area, power new energy, hard technology).
Huaan Securities Co.Ltd(600909) said that at the end of , the node needs to more actively participate in the cross year market and seize the restless opportunity in the spring of the first half of the year . In terms of allocation opportunities, first, the growth direction is to allocate the new energy vehicle industry chain, photovoltaic, wind power, hydrogen energy, energy storage and semiconductor industries, in which it is necessary to tap the opportunities for industry chain segmentation, such as the improvement of the profitability of photovoltaic middle and downstream components; Second, the direction of consumption, structural opportunities, and focus on the improvement of automobiles along the boom and the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industry benefiting from the rebound in prices; The third is the financial direction. With the restlessness moving forward in spring, we can pay attention to the startup opportunities of securities companies.
Guosheng Securities pointed out that had a good year-end, and the market focus continued to favor steady growth . （1） The steady growth direction has been set and initial results have been achieved. The credit conditions are expected to stabilize in a real sense at the end of the year. In the medium term, we will continue to be optimistic about the recovery of value stocks, recommend food and beverage and consumer services for large consumption, underestimate the value, and pay attention to high-quality banks, state-owned enterprise developers and power operation; （2） New and old infrastructure development direction, the first is: construction / building materials, scenery storage, UHV; （3） Upstream cost reversal auto parts, small household appliances, and independent main line military industry.
In addition, Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) said that from to 1q22, there are still quarterly market levels in the four directions of rebalancing : clearly catalyzed dilemma reversal (auto zero / consumer electronics, etc.), unfinished hot spot diffusion (special equipment), prosperity verification of policy cards (military industry, etc.), prosperity or dark sectors exceeding expectations (Infrastructure / non bank); After 2q22, the pan power sprocket shall be arranged in time.
