Looking back on Tuesday's A-share market, stimulated by the favorable drop in the standard, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened higher, fell rapidly at the beginning of the session, and accelerated the diving. With the strength of blue chips, the Shanghai index stabilized and rose, while the gem index was relatively weak; In the afternoon, the stock index continued its shock consolidation, the Shanghai index rose again at the end of the day, and the decline of the gem index narrowed further.
As Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) mentioned, in the context of the easing of the epidemic, the US stock market rebounded overnight, and the Chinese concept stocks showed violent withdrawal, and the Hong Kong stocks with high correlation also ushered in a strong repair. After the landing of the RRR reduction news, the A-Shares continued the weak shock in the early stage on Tuesday, but the disk style changed significantly, and there was a trend of abandoning the high to the low. For the market, especially some high-level varieties, we still need to keep a vigilance. In operation, it is recommended to control the position and moderately increase the configuration of low-level blue chips, so as to achieve balanced position. In the direction, we can focus on the favorable policy directions such as pan real estate chain, big Finance and new infrastructure, and chase up the rise carefully.
Dongguan Securities said that from a technical point of view, the trend of the index was obviously differentiated, the Shanghai index closed up slightly in the shock consolidation, and the gem index continued to callback. However, the net inflow of northward funds for five consecutive days, and the net inflow of nearly 8 billion yuan on Tuesday, coupled with the implementation of the central bank's RRR reduction, the market is expected to rise in repeated shocks, and pay attention to the flow of foreign capital and plate rotation. In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, food and beverage, chemical industry, electrical equipment, TMT and other industries.
As for the future market, Guosheng Securities pointed out that the adjustment of the two cities' indexes for two consecutive days has a great impact on the index structure, and may face a direction choice in the near future. In terms of operation, the current index structures of the two cities are different, especially the continuous mid Yin line breaking on the gem, which is easy to have a great impact on the market's long confidence. In terms of plate structure, it also enters the rhythm of high-low switching. The plates that have been greatly adjusted in the early stage rebound in turn, while the high growth plates with high valuation have been significantly adjusted. The market style is in the stage of gradual switching, and it is difficult to participate, We should be cautious to be long , and we can focus on securities, insurance, real estate and other oversold sectors that benefit from loose capital.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) believes that the growth style of A-Shares may be temporarily restrained. We will observe whether to return to "growth" around the end of the first quarter of next year. When the focus of the market turns to "stable growth", the growth style of some A-Shares that have significantly outperformed the market, high valuations, high expectations and not low positions may temporarily be relatively backward, and the market style may correspondingly show a pattern of "big strength and small weakness". after the policy force comes to an end, the "steady growth" transaction is over and the growth expectation is gradually stabilized, the market begins to look for sustainable growth opportunities, and the market style may return to the growth style at that time. We roughly estimate that this time point may be around the end of the first quarter of next year .
In addition, Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) mentioned that the central bank lowered the reserve requirement as scheduled, and the Politburo meeting reintroduced the "six stabilities and six guarantees" to change the market's pessimistic expectation of the economy, but the market showed high opening and low going, indicating that the market adjustment pressure is still large, resulting in further reduction of market risk appetite. In the medium term, the purpose of this RRR reduction is to ensure economic growth. The financing cost of the real economy is expected to be reduced, and the positive benefits to the A-share market will appear in the future. In terms of operation, moderately increased the allocation of undervalued sectors, and participated in when it was clear about the growth of the annual report but the stock price was still not fully reflected.
In the macro aspect, Haitong Securities Company Limited(600837) also pointed out that China's export value increased by 22.0% year-on-year in November, exceeding market expectations. even excluding seasonal factors, China's export volume in November still hit a record high . The resilience of exports, on the one hand, is related to the continued deterioration of the recent overseas epidemic; On the other hand, it is related to the preparation in advance of overseas traditional holidays. In addition, the price factor still makes a great contribution. Domestic demand has been repaired. On the one hand, this is related to the relatively low base in the same period last year; On the other hand, it is related to the easing of China's supply side and the repair of domestic demand. In addition, the contribution of rising import prices is still large. Looking ahead, the contribution of exports to the economy has been positive for two consecutive years. With the decline of U.S. commodity consumption demand and the recovery of overseas supply chain, it is expected that the year-on-year contribution of actual exports to the economy in 2022 may turn negative.
In terms of operational strategy, Everbright Securities Company Limited(601788) mentioned that risk avoidance and defense sector is obviously favored by funds . Outstanding performance in real estate, consumption and finance. On the contrary, track stocks represented by new energy and military industry fell sharply. At present, the news of RRR reduction has not greatly stimulated the market, but has improved the weight industries that are directly beneficial. It means that there are benefits for track stocks. I'm afraid we should be cautious in the future and don't easily copy the bottom. The operation suggestions are mainly in finance, real estate, construction machinery, consumption and other industries. In the early stage, only the power industry can be considered.
Dongxing Securities Corporation Limited(601198) pointed out that looking for sectors that are obviously suppressed or delayed due to epidemic demand this year, these industries have the space for valuation and repair. consumption recovery is a relatively definite direction, and there are a few value depressions in some high-end manufacturing industries.
1） Consumer industry in dilemma reversal: the overall pace of consumer recovery extends from mandatory to optional. Since the beginning of this year, the price of optional consumption has risen in response to the rise of the cost side. After the price rise, the price is rigid, the price of raw materials has a downward trend in 2021, the gross profit margin has room for improvement, or there is valuation repair due to the improvement of volume and price. Automobiles and household appliances are industries with sensitive raw material costs and backward demand this year. The industries with upward boom and relatively low valuation are preferred among the required consumption, including dairy products, beverages, condiments, chemical pharmaceuticals and biomedicine.
2） Select one of the few value depressions in high-end manufacturing: some segments of high-end manufacturing are still in a period of boom driven high capital expenditure. The rise of new energy sales also supports the performance of lithium battery equipment and auto parts. Under the environment of weakening traditional economic growth momentum next year, counter cyclical regulation may exert force. It is suggested to pay attention to the new energy industry chain (lithium battery equipment, charging pile, parts), reverse cycle hedging (rail transit, machine tool equipment) and semiconductors.
