Looking back on the A-share market last week, A-share was weak at the beginning of the week, and then there was a rebound in the positive line for two consecutive trading days. Last Friday, the stock index fell back and adjusted again. The overall trend was relatively healthy and the volume could remain good. The market rose one after another, superimposed on the previous fundamental support, and the market trend remained good.
As stated by Guosheng securities, after continuous high-level box shocks, several major indexes are ready to rise in the stimulating news of RRR reduction, and the phased upward trend will continue, but the trading volume has not been significantly enlarged or restricted to a certain extent. Northbound funds have recently made substantial net inflows. Under the protection of policies, the index is expected to challenge the previous high at the end of the year and walk out of a cross year market. Keep cautious and optimistic in the future, pay close attention to the changes of trading volume and the introduction of various policies.
In terms of the future market, YueKai Securities pointed out that the A-share market is still expected to usher in a “tail raising market” under the multiple expectations of policy + liquidity + marginal improvement of economic data. Near the end of the year, A-shares will face valuation switching. From this perspective: in terms of the total, the A-share economic cycle will be downward in 2022 (both kichin short cycle and zhugra medium cycle are in the second half), Profits may be under pressure. On the one hand, they are subject to the downward pressure on the economic aggregate. On the other hand, they are affected by the high base effect in the same period last year. In this context, has two recent investment directions: one is the opportunity brought by the expected improvement of performance; Second, continue to pursue high economic certainty .
Cinda Securities believes that is mainly driven by three : Valuation rebound + steady growth + seasonal rebound of resident funds. The first driving force is the “valuation rebound”. Since March, the adjustment time and amplitude of some sectors are large, so it is necessary to repair the valuation. The second driving force is the “optimistic policy before and after the new year”. With the implementation of the RRR reduction, the new year’s market will enter the second wave of rise dominated by stable growth expectations. Only the first two forces can support the market up to January, and then it is necessary to verify the activity of residents’ funds. If it can recover, the cross-year market can continue until March. Our current judgment is still optimistic, and we suggest investors to actively participate in the cross-year market.
Macroscopically, Huaxi Securities Co.Ltd(002926) said that “stability” is the key word of the central economic work conference. Against the background of the global epidemic and the multiple pressures on China’s economy, all parties should actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, properly advance the policy force, smooth the economic fluctuations before the 20th National Congress, and keep the economic operation within a reasonable range. in the current vacuum period of enterprise profit data, “loose liquidity + steady growth policy” has become the driving force for A-Shares to interpret the “cross year market” . The follow-up counter cyclical and cross cyclical policies support the economy, and the market risk appetite is expected to rise.
China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) the research report said that it is still necessary to continue to pay attention to the “reversal” of the global economic cycle and the new changes of the epidemic situation. At present, China’s capital market is in a more favorable environment than the world. Under the expectation of “steady growth”, we should pay attention to the progress of policy countercyclical regulation in the future. In terms of style, with the possible implementation of social finance credit and financial planning and deployment, the main line of “stable growth” will continue. Some relatively strong manufacturing growth styles since the beginning of the year may be relatively backward temporarily, market style may temporarily show a pattern of “big strength and small weakness” .
In terms of operation strategy, China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) believes that the cross year market has been launched. At the same time, the periodic marginal “wide credit” expectation is increasing, which continues to promote the index market with size resonance. The economic work conference promotes the four main lines of the new year’s market : 1) pay attention to securities companies, an important carrier for the new year’s market interpretation; 2) New and old infrastructure, real estate and other sectors benefiting from steady growth expectations and undervalued repair; 3) Dual carbon related new energy and coal sectors; 4) Science and innovation growth plate represented by “small high tech”.
Guotai Junan Securities Co.Ltd(601211) mentioned that with the convening of important meetings, the core of policy is to stabilize the economy, to follow the order of steady growth and the of pessimism. The following are recommended: 1) consumption: accelerate the expected bottom, recommend the direction of Baijiu, pig, household appliances, furniture, social service / tourism, which are supported by performance and are expected to weaken. 2) Finance: securities companies and banks; 3) Technology manufacturing: consumer electronics and semiconductors; 4) New energy: high prosperity directions such as photovoltaic and new energy vehicles.
Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) pointed out that firmly focused on the layout of “three lows” and grasped the cross year blue chip market that lasted for several months. The following points are focused: 1) the expected low level varieties, focusing on the manufacturing of middle reaches, which are suppressed by cost and supply chain problems, such as small household electrical appliances, auto parts and electrical equipment, and gradually add some consumption and pharmaceutical industries that are reasonably suitable for the valuation, such as Baijiu, food, tax-free, medical equipment, vaccines, etc. 2) For the varieties whose valuation is still relatively low, pay attention to the high-quality developers and building materials enterprises after the expected mitigation of real estate credit risk, as well as the Internet leaders of Hong Kong stocks after the impact of China concept stocks; 3) High boom varieties with relatively low stock price after adjustment, such as semiconductor equipment driven by localization logic, special chip devices and military industry.
