Overview of fundamentals of various industries
On the whole, in January, the prices of resource products represented by oil, steel and coal rose in most of the upstream industries, the prosperity of most industries in the midstream was divided, and the consumer outlook represented by real estate in the downstream improved. From the current fundamental situation of major industries: (1) most of the prices of upstream resource products rise, the price of WTI crude oil rises sharply in the short term, and the average monthly inventory decreases slightly month on month. The price of thermal coal decreased slightly, but the price of coking coal increased significantly. Steel prices fluctuate and rise as a whole. Most non-ferrous metal prices rose, copper prices rose slightly, aluminum prices continued to rise, lead prices fell slightly, and zinc prices rose slightly. Lithium carbonate prices continued to rise, while rare earth prices remained strong. In terms of international agriculture, the FAO food price index rebounded and the degree of food inflation increased. China’s agricultural chicken was basically flat, and pork prices fell sharply. (2) the boom of the midstream industry was mixed, the year-on-year growth rate of global semiconductor sales remained high, the year-on-year growth rate of sales in the Asia Pacific region increased slightly, and the semiconductor boom increased. (3) the downstream consumption boom has improved, the sales area of commercial housing has rebounded sharply, and the total retail sales of social consumer goods have dropped slightly, and the price of Baijiu has increased. In addition, the growth rate of real estate investment continued to decline month on month, home appliance retail remained basically stable compared with the previous month, and the rise of China’s cotton price slowed down.
Data tracking and comparison of subdivided industries
Specifically, we think the following points in the latest data deserve attention:
First, crude oil prices rose sharply in the short term. As of 15:00 on February 9, 2022, the spot price of WTI crude oil has reached 89.16 US dollars / barrel, and the oil distribution price has been reported at 90.56 US dollars / barrel, up 17% and 14.8% respectively compared with the price at the end of December. Judging from the price difference between power coal and chemical products, the price of chemical industry in Beijing Rose mostly in January. With the recent marginal improvement of real estate policy, from the perspective of price trend, the prices of rebar and iron ore in the upstream of the real estate chain showed a fluctuating upward trend. As of the end of January, the settlement price of rebar futures was 4639 yuan, an increase of 91 yuan month on month, the average settlement price in January was 4609 yuan, an increase of 2.8% month on month, and the settlement price of iron ore futures was 738 yuan, an increase of 54 yuan compared with the end of last month, and the average monthly price was 705 yuan, Up 7.6% month on month.
Second, the prosperity of most industries in the middle reaches is upward. The SCFI and BDI indexes, which rose strongly in the early stage, continued to fall in January, the prosperity of the shipping industry continued to decline, and the prosperity of other transportation sub industries was also low. However, in the automotive industry, the landscape of passenger cars and commercial vehicles has improved, and the sales volume of new energy has decreased. Semiconductor boom up – the year-on-year growth rate of global semiconductor sales and the year-on-year growth rate of sales in the Asia Pacific region both stabilized and rebounded. The boom of mechanical heavy trucks rebounded across the board.
Three, the price of Baijiu liquor continues to rise, and the area of commercial housing sales has rebounded. According to the data released by the Bureau of statistics, the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 1.7% year-on-year in December, down 2.2 percentage points from 3.9% in November, and the growth rate in the same period last year was 4.6%. Online retail sales grew by 2% year-on-year, down 5 percentage points from the previous month. In December, the proportion of online sales of goods in total social zero decreased, down 7.7 percentage points from the previous month to 24.2%.
Risk tips
The problem of overseas supply chain has not been alleviated and the anticipation of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve is in front of the storm.
