Main indexes of a shares: all A-Shares are near the 3-year 43% quantile of P / E ratio; Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 / Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 are near the quantile of 64% / 55% of the three-year P / E ratio respectively; The price earnings ratio of CSI 500 / 1000 is below 2% in 3 years; The price earnings ratio of Kechuang 50 hit a new low. The growth style fell sharply again. The week on week ratio of the gem index / Ning combination fell by 3.8/8.0 respectively, which were near the 3-year 14% / 42% quantile value respectively. There was no substantive bad news on the fundamentals.
Major indexes of overseas markets: the CPI of the United States in January rose by 7.5% year-on-year, a new high since 1982. The expectation of raising interest rates under inflationary pressure increased again, and the main valuations of the United States generally fell. The Hong Kong stock market ushered in the Spring Festival holiday and made a good start after the new year. Based on the low valuation level, it ushered in a certain repair. The current Hang Seng Index valuation is at the quantile value of 67% in 3 years / 55% in 5 years.
Shenwan industry: the rising clues of the industry this week can be summarized as follows: 1) performance loss landing + Fundamentals reversal expectation (pig cycle / utilities / social services / retail, etc.); 2) Stable growth expectation (infrastructure chain / bank / real estate chain), in which the cycle sector also benefits from the marginal liberalization of dual control of energy consumption; 3) Some undervalued quantile growth sectors. The valuation level and quantile of social services / agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery / non-ferrous metals were the highest compared with last week. The epidemic prevention and control in various regions has become more humanized, and the expectation of relaxing the travel policy during the year has driven the performance of the social service sector; The seed industry has policy expectations, the reverse expectation of breeding industry is strengthened, and the performance of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery sector is better; The cyclical sector market is catalyzed by the marginal relaxation of the dual control policy of energy consumption and the expectation of warmer demand. On the one hand, the valuation of relevant sectors with steady growth has been repaired compared with the previous period, and the three-year valuation quantile of construction / real estate / bank has reached 92% / 40% / 36% respectively. The follow-up action force may come from the further confirmation of economic data and policies; On the other hand, under the background of no substantial negative fundamentals, the valuation of the track type growth sector moved down sharply this week. At present, the valuation quantile continues to fall, and the three-year valuation quantile of Dianxin / Electronics / military industry reached 71% / 3% / 28% respectively. Medicine continues to be negatively affected by centralized purchase.
Popular track and industrial chain: track stocks perform poorly, and the higher the absolute level of valuation, the greater the downward range. At present, the valuation of popular tracks is almost below the 3-year 60% quantile value, and the expected P / E ratio of power battery / military industry in 22 years is 40 times. PE (TTM) of new energy sector (new energy vehicles / photovoltaic / power cells) and military industry sector generally returned to the level of June 21.
Risk tip: the economy is less than expected and the epidemic situation is more than expected
