Key investment points:
According to the financial data reported in the fourth quarter of 2021 of the first batch of infrastructure public REITs projects, the overall operation of the first batch of public REITs is relatively stable. In terms of asset types, the fourth quarter income, EBITDA and distributable amount of infrastructure REITs and Soochow Suzhou Industrial Park REITs are higher than the other two REITs of the same type; For transportation infrastructure REITs, the income, EBITDA and distributable amount of Ping An Guangzhou Guanghe REIT in the fourth quarter are higher than those of Zheshang huhangyong REIT. Its EBITDA is twice that of Zheshang huhangyong REIT and the distributable amount is four times that of Zheshang huhangyong REIT; REITs of warehousing and logistics, the fourth quarter income, EBITDA and available distribution amount of CP REIT are about 2 times more than that of laterite innovation Yantian REIT. For ecological and environmental protection REITs, the income and distributable amount of AVIC Shougang biomass REIT in the fourth quarter were higher than that of Wells Fargo’s first water REIT, while the EBITDA was -23.4661 million yuan, mainly due to the provision of annual fund management fee and floating management fee in the fourth quarter and the fact that the business performance of the infrastructure project company exceeded the expectation this year, According to the annual operating income, the incentive and cost settlement of external management institutions are carried out, which is caused by the increase of operating costs.
On the whole, the operation of public REITs in the fourth quarter was lower than that in the third quarter, which was mainly affected by the epidemic situation and seasonal factors. In terms of asset types, the two REITs of warehousing and logistics performed well in the fourth quarter, and the income, net profit and amount available for distribution in the current period increased month on month compared with the third quarter; The operation of the three REITs for infrastructure in the park was relatively stable in the fourth quarter, with no significant fluctuation compared with the third quarter; The operation of two REITs of transportation infrastructure in the fourth quarter was significantly affected by the epidemic, and the revenue side was significantly frustrated; The operation of two REITs of ecological and environmental protection also declined significantly in the fourth quarter.
According to the comparison between the first batch of public offering REITs quarterly report and the amount available for distribution in 2021 predicted in the prospectus, on the whole, the operation performance in the fourth quarter was in line with the expected value, and the warehousing and logistics projects performed better. In terms of asset types, among the three REITs in the park infrastructure category, Boshi China Merchants Shekou Industrial Zone Holdings Co.Ltd(001979) REIT and Huaan Zhangjiang Everbright Park REIT performed in line with the expected value of the prospectus in the fourth quarter, and the amount available for distribution in Soochow Suzhou Industrial Park in the fourth quarter was slightly lower; The cumulative distributable amount of the two REITs of transportation infrastructure in this year exceeds the expected value in the prospectus; The operation performance of the two REITs of warehousing and logistics in the fourth quarter was better than the expected value of the prospectus, and the overall performance in the fourth quarter was better than that in the third quarter; Among the two REITs of ecological and environmental protection, the proportion of the amount available for distribution of AVIC Shougang biomass REIT in the fourth quarter was better than that in the third quarter, and the cumulative amount available for distribution in 2021 exceeded the annual forecast value of the prospectus by 52%. The proportion of the amount available for distribution of Fuguo’s first water REIT in the fourth quarter did not meet the expected value of the prospectus, and the performance in the fourth quarter was lower than that in the third quarter.
Public REITs rely on the adjustment of accounts receivable and payable to ensure the positive growth of cash flow available for distribution. Due to the particularity of public REITs, we pointed out in SWOT, rules and Pricing: REITs investment guide that the distributable cash flow in the statement of public REITs is more meaningful than the net profit. For this batch of REITs four seasons report, After splitting the cash flow available for distribution, we found that most of the public REITs significantly increased the accounts receivable and payable items under the condition of a month on month decrease in net profit, ensuring the cash flow available for distribution.
Risk warning: the future operation of REITs basic assets project is uncertain; The future cash flow calculated in the prospectus may not accurately reflect the actual situation; The progress of raising and issuing was less than expected.
