Main indexes of a shares: all A-Shares are near the 3-year 46% quantile of P / E ratio; Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 / Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 are near the quantile of 62% / 55% of the three-year P / E ratio respectively; The price earnings ratio of CSI 500 / 1000 is below 2% in 3 years; The price earnings ratio of Kechuang 50 is below 1% in three years. The growth style stopped falling and rebounded this week. The weekly link ratio of gem index / Ning combination increased by 1.8/4.2 respectively, which were near the 3-year 25% / 45% quantile value respectively.
Major indexes in overseas markets: affected by geopolitics and the expectation of raising interest rates, US stocks continued to decline and fell collectively. The S & P 500 / NASDAQ index is currently in the 30% quantile for three years; The Hang Seng Index also fell slightly, and the Hang Seng technology index fell significantly, at a quantile of 25% in three years.
Shenwan industry: the current market is affected by multiple factors: 1) the expectation of steady growth policy; 2) The valuation of some high boom growth stocks has fallen back to a reasonable area; 3) Expressed concern about the upcoming fed interest rate hike. Under the combined effect, the growth sector rebounded this week, and the valuation levels of power equipment / medicine and Biology (CXO) / military industry / Electronics and other sectors ranked first compared with last week. The current five-year valuation quantiles reached 85% / 12% / 27% / 13% respectively. On the other hand, Shandong Heze lowered the down payment ratio of first home buyers and real estate loan interest rate on Thursday, and the real estate / construction / bank / cycle sector also performed on Friday. The current real estate / construction / bank valuation is 22% / 67% / 29% in five years respectively. In terms of time, the confirmation of the strength of steady growth policy and the Fed’s interest rate increase in March may be an important time window for the next observation style switching. In addition, for the recovery logic of the epidemic, the current 22-year expectation of PE / Pb in key sectors such as scenic spots, commerce and aviation is generally significantly higher than that before the 19-year epidemic.
Popular track and industrial chain: the valuation of most track stocks has fallen back to a reasonable range: from the perspective of PE (TTM), the valuation of popular track is almost below the 3-year 60% quantile value, of which the power battery / military industry department is near the 3-year 30% quantile value, and the photovoltaic department is 60% quantile value for 3 years. The valuations of the three have returned to the level from May to June of 21; From the perspective of PE, the valuation of power cell / CXO / military industry / photovoltaic in 22 years is 44 times / 41 times / 45 times / 25 times respectively. From the perspective of PEG, both power cell and photovoltaic are around 0.65.
Risk tip: the economy is less than expected and the epidemic situation is more than expected
