Market performance
In the past two weeks, the Hang Seng Index has performed well, rising by 2.2%, slightly lower than the Shanghai index, but better than US stocks.
The profit-making effect in February is significantly better than that in January. Of the 31 industries, 29 are rising. Due to the strong trend of many bulk commodities and the expected good performance of the annual report, the upstream growth of nonferrous metals, coal, steel and other cycles ranked first. In addition, construction, food, social services, retail, transportation, building materials, chemical and other industries have performed well. The largest decline was in agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and household appliances.
The market expects that by the end of this year, the target interest rate of U.S. federal funds will rise to 1.35, which is equivalent to 110 BP higher than at present, ranging from 4-5 interest rate increases. In addition, the market expects the yield of U.S. 10-year Treasury bonds to rise to 2.21% by the end of this year.
Expected adjustment
Analysts’ upward revision of 2022 performance is mainly concentrated in chip, automobile, power and utilities, and operators; The downward revision of performance is mainly concentrated in several industries such as gambling, internet medical treatment, pork, catering and real estate.
Capital flow of Hong Kong stock connect
Kwai Chung, CNOOC, China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , medicine, biology, Anta sports, China overseas development, Wuxi Apptec Co.Ltd(603259) , conch ventures, Zheng Rong real estate, XinDa and other biological capital flows into the front; Tencent holdings, China Construction Bank Corporation(601939) , Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) , Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) , China Resources Power, China Resources beer, Bank Of China Limited(601988) , Geely Automobile, Shunyu optical technology and China Mobile ranked first.
Risk tips
The uncertainty of the development of the epidemic, the downside risk of the economic cycle and the risk of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in advance.
