Reading Guide: the broad credit has made a good start, the steady growth policies of infrastructure, real estate, industry and service industry have been strengthened, Russia and Ukraine have been gradually immune to disturbances, breaking the negative feedback, and all things come to life from winter to spring.
China’s inflation continued to fall, real estate policy expectations improved, and steady growth policies for Industry and services increased. Social finance has made a good start, which shows the determination of the country to stabilize growth. This week, under the external disturbance, the main broad-based index closed up in an all-round way, the high boom track rebounded in stages, and the gem index ranked first, with a weekly increase of 2.9%. In January, both PPI and CPI fell, and the core CPI remained flat for three consecutive months, reflecting that domestic demand is still weak. It is expected that PPI will gradually fall in the future, CPI may rise moderately, and China’s inflation will not become the constraint of loose monetary policy for the time being. The inflation data in January reflects that China’s demand is still relatively weak, the current monetary policy is still in a loose window period, and the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates can still be expected. During the week, a number of steady growth measures were introduced, among which the down payment ratio of the first house loan in Heze, Shandong Province decreased to 20%, marking the substantive adjustment of the housing loan policy and the improvement of the expectation of real estate for economic drag under the policy framework of “no speculation in housing” and “implementation of policies due to the city”. On February 18, the national development and Reform Commission and multiple departments jointly issued the notice of “several policies for promoting the steady growth of industrial economy” and “several policies for promoting the recovery and development of difficult industries in the field of service industry”, detailing the specific measures for promoting the steady growth of industrial economy and the relief of service industry. In the future, with the approach of the national two sessions in March, the steady growth policy will be further strengthened, which will help market participants to stabilize their expectations and gradually dispel the market’s doubts about wide credit and steady growth. With the enhancement of the signal of broad credit and stable growth, the interest rate will return to the upward direction, and the risk appetite will be repaired. A shares are expected to go out of the shock range and return to the upward trend. The high dividend strategy is the shield, with small cap growth and special new attack.
The Fed’s interest rate increase window is approaching, and the probability of raising interest rates by 50 BP in March decreases. This week, the Federal Reserve released the minutes of the FOMC meeting in January. The main messages of the meeting include: (1) inflation: high inflation is expected to ease within the year. If it fails to fall back as scheduled, it will speed up the tightening of monetary policy; (2) Full employment: the labor market is strong and close to full employment; (3) Timing of interest rate hike: the interest rate hike was started soon, but 50 BP clues of interest rate hike were not disclosed; (4) Path of interest rate increase and table contraction: no clear tightening path is given, but the pace of interest rate increase and table contraction is expected to be faster than that of the previous interest rate increase cycle. Based on the strong employment growth and sustained high inflation in the United States, the Federal Reserve is expected to raise interest rates for the first time in March. However, the interest rate meeting in January did not discuss whether to raise interest rates by 50 bps. After the closed door meeting of the Federal Reserve in February, Williams, the third in command of the Federal Reserve and chairman of the New York Fed, said that “it will be appropriate to raise interest rates in March, but did not see convincing arguments to support the significant progress in March”. The probability of raising interest rates by 50 BPs in March decreased, and continued to focus on CPI in February and employment data in January. Although the range of interest rate increase in March is expected to decrease, the window of interest rate increase is approaching, and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will escalate again, which will still suppress market sentiment and disturb the pricing of global risky assets.
The financing scale hit the bottom and fluctuated, and the inflow to the North fluctuated at a high level, putting pressure on the capital of the pharmaceutical and biological industry. The financing balance remained low and volatile after shrinking continuously in the early stage, showing a certain stability; Northbound funds as a whole had a small net outflow this week. The two capital entities remain stable, and the inflow structure is expected to gradually form a main line. In the industry direction, the commonness of the two capital subjects lies in the leading level of net inflow to banks and the significant outflow to pharmaceutical biology. In addition, stable growth related industries, such as real estate and steel, as well as industries with performance repair expectations, such as transportation, also receive financial attention.
Focus on the three era clues of common prosperity, energy revolution and manufacturing power. a. Growth track of manufacturing power: Computer & Communication (Industrial Internet, smart energy, Jiangsu Nonghua Intelligent Agriculture Technology Co.Ltd(000816) , smart city, Xinchuang software), semiconductor (material & Equipment & power semiconductor), new energy vehicle (vehicle & parts), national defense industry (Aircraft & missile industry chain); b. Qianlong stabilizes the track in Yuanyuan: agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, food and beverage, beauty care; c. Growth track of energy revolution: clean energy (photovoltaic & wind power industry chain), high energy consumption substitution (lithium battery & prefabricated building).
The annual main line is specialized and new. In terms of the original four-dimensional screening criteria of “specialized”, “refined”, “special” and “new”, we have added the new criteria that only listed companies are small giant enterprises, further focus on the market value of small and medium-sized enterprises, and build a “specialized, special and new” small giant 50. We combed Shenzhen Sunmoon Microelectronics Co.Ltd(688699) , Changchun Up Optotech Co.Ltd(002338) , Shenzhen Jpt Opto-Electronics Co.Ltd(688025) , Hangzhou Shenhao Technology Co.Ltd(300853) , Guilin Fuda Co.Ltd(603166) , Sf Diamond Co.Ltd(300179) in the tour: the little giant of “specialization and innovation” – Issue 8.
Risk tip: the persistence of inflation exceeded expectations, the tightening of liquidity exceeded expectations, and the epidemic repeatedly exceeded expectations.
