Deposit growth at the beginning of the year: on the whole, as of the end of January, bank deposits increased by 9.2% year-on-year, slightly down 0.1 percentage points from the end of the previous year, higher than the pre epidemic operation range. In terms of absolute volume, it increased by 3.8 trillion in the current month, slightly less than the credit increment (4 trillion);
Retail sales are strong while enterprises are weak: in terms of line structure, retail sales in January are strong (+ 5.4 trillion) and enterprises are weak (- 1.4 trillion). Spring Festival factors lead to switching between lines; Fiscal deposits increased by nearly 600 billion at the end of the month, while non bank deposits fell by nearly 200 billion;
Changes in financing channels: in terms of asset driving factors, the growth rate of social finance rebounded from 0.2 percentage points to 10.5% month on month in January: credit, government bonds and credit bonds are the main driving projects, and the three non-standard sub items also showed positive growth for the first time in a year;
In terms of active liabilities, the scale of structured deposits expanded by nearly 900 billion in January, with the growth mainly reflected in enterprise lines and institutions reflected in large banks. It is not known whether the large-scale expansion in January this year will attract the attention of regulators. It can be expected that the large-scale expansion of structural deposits lacks support, and all clearing is easy to lead to the disorder of the deposit market. In the future, it will still operate in the range of top and bottom.
On the whole, the growth of bank deposits can keep up with the growth rhythm of assets (at least credit) in the good start stage, but the imbalance between lines and institutions still exists. Active liabilities laid a certain foundation at the beginning of the year, but regulators pay close attention to the cost of bank deposits, practice their internal skills, do a good job in customer management, and strengthen the absorption of core deposits is still the eternal theme of bank deposit business, while active liabilities should play a role of filling and leveraging.
Liquidity tips and Thoughts on next week's operation strategies
Next week, 50 billion yuan will be due in the open market, 238.9 billion yuan of government bonds will be issued, 120 billion yuan of national bonds will be paid, 273.8 billion yuan of local bonds will be paid, 81 billion yuan of capital instruments will be paid, and 58 billion yuan of commercial capital bonds will be paid; The maturity of NCD is 479.5 billion;
Next week, near the end of the month, the expected volume and price in the open market will remain stable; Pay attention to the LPR quotation on the 21st. If it is lowered, it may cause loose expectations again. There may be a slight downward opportunity for the capital interest rate within 1y. It is appropriate to continue to supplement the long-term end on the liability side and accelerate the pace of reduction on the asset side; On the contrary, if it is not lowered, it is possible to rebound from NCD to bills, and the latter will be larger;
Next week, commercial capital bonds and capital instruments will enter the peak period of issuance again. From the perspective of issuance cost this week, it rebounded by about 5-8bp compared with the low level in the early stage, which is still within the acceptable range; Pay attention to whether there will be waves in the primary market next week;
