Guide reading: the cold winter opens the door to the cold, which will grind people most if it is not stable. Everything comes to life in spring. With the strategy of high dividend as the shield, the power accumulating cattle grow in small cap and specialize in special new attacks.
It's cold in winter. Since the beginning of 2022, with the end of the epidemic, global recovery, rising commodity prices, rising inflation, strengthening hawkish signals from European and American central banks, and the rapid rise of European and American bond yields, leading to the adjustment of global stock markets. In China, due to the dislocation of the economic cycle, the bottom of the economy, weak demand, the peak decline of PPI, the downturn of consumption, the steady growth of broad credit, the continuous overweight, the downward recovery of bond yield, and the cold opening of A-Shares until the counterattack after the Spring Festival. In history, it is also a risk aversion before the Spring Festival and a recovery after the festival. Resume the rise and fall of indexes, industries and styles in the four weeks before and after the Spring Festival from 2010 to 2021. Summarize three experiences: 1. The cyclical trend is obvious, and the opportunities are mainly after the Spring Festival; 2. Before the Spring Festival, big and small, high and low cut, after the Spring Festival, small cap growth and high P / E ratio are stronger; 3. At the industry level, banks and household appliances dominated before the Spring Festival, and TMT, electrical equipment and automobiles performed better after the festival.
It will grind people the most. The leading indicator (credit cycle) was added to the Pringle cycle to better adapt to the era of monetarism. China's Pringle clock stage 5 stagflation to stage 1 counter cyclical regulation, Pringle stage 1, will be the most grinding of stability, and bonds are dominant. At the beginning of the new year, the measures and strength of stable growth expected by some investors in the market are not clear, but it can be made clear that financial housing construction cannot be bypassed, so first seek stability and turn from high-level popular track stocks to low-level stable growth beneficiary varieties. However, because the steady growth signal needs to be clear and the strength is questionable, most investors have no faith in traditional steady growth varieties. Stock market confidence is fragile due to unstable molecular expectations. However, the market expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates more than six times this year and will raise interest rates for the first time at the interest rate meeting in March. Under external disturbances such as the deviation of China US monetary policy and the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the effect of China's credit easing and steady growth is more critical. The market is worried that real estate and consumption will drag down the economy, and the contraction of demand needs to be reversed. In December, the year-on-year growth rate of commercial housing sales area accelerated to - 15.6% in the same month, and the decline continued to expand compared with November, and the bottom has not been proved. The impact of the epidemic is sporadic, the per capita income of residents recovers slowly, and the consumption recovers slowly, which is far from before the epidemic. From January to December 2021, the average cumulative year-on-year growth rate of total social zero was 4.0%, which was far lower than the growth rate of 9.7% in the same period in history (2015-2019).
Spring comes, and all things grow. The policy bottom has been found, the market bottom may have been proved, and the economic bottom Q2 has been proved. It is expected that the market bottom may occur in January (the last week before the Spring Festival) or around April (the second bottom depends on the economic bottom). The end of the policy led the end of the economy, and the lag between the end of the policy and the end of the market was 0-4 months. The end of the market fell by 3.5% - 9.5% compared with the end of the policy, while the end of the market rebounded rapidly, with an increase of 14.3% - 36.6% compared with the end of the policy in 2-5 months. Structural credit easing was launched, and monetary policy was stable and loose. Monetary policy will continue to be loose. The main task in the next stage is to provide broad credit with stable aggregate and excellent structure. The stock of social finance increased year-on-year for three consecutive months. The macro policy actively and steadily increased to hedge the downward pressure on the economy. It is expected that the economic bottom will be found in Q2. The real estate demand side policy was further improved and the signal of steady growth was enhanced. Heze plays an exemplary role. It is expected that the demand will be stable in the future, and the real estate policy will continue to be adjusted. Various ministries and commissions have introduced specific measures to promote steady industrial growth and rescue the service industry, and the steady growth policies have been intensively introduced. It is expected that the "triple pressure" of China's economic growth is expected to be gradually relieved under the background of policies helping enterprises to rescue and promoting the steady growth of industrial economy, driving the market molecular expectations to gradually stabilize.
With the strategy of high dividend as the shield, the power accumulating cattle grow in small cap and specialize in special new attacks.
1. Profit and Valuation: in 2022, the growth rate of the whole a was 5%, led by the middle reaches. As of February 20, 2022, according to the predicted growth value of all a performance in 2022, it is estimated that the total ape is 17.6 (based on the growth rate of 5%). If the regression + 1 standard deviation is 21.8 / the average value is 19.5 / - 1 standard deviation is 17.1 (obtained from the data statistics of the previous three years), there will be changes of + 24% / + 11% / - 3% respectively.
2. The gap between M2 and social finance growth is ahead of all ape, and the gap between M2 and social finance growth is widening, which confirms our annual strategy's judgment on the accumulation of excess liquidity in the financial market. The conduction delay will be exhausted, and the rotation has reached a shares. From the performance of large categories of assets, the long-term interest rate rebounded, the convertible bond was strong, and the REITs reached a new high, implying the pursuit of deterministic growth by financial institutions. The performance price ratio of stocks and bonds was further improved. As the steady growth became clearer, the molecular expectation stabilized and rotated to a shares.
3. Performance forecast: the forecast rate of annual report of A-Shares in 2021 is 58%, the growth rate of the median method is 51%, the growth rate of the upstream raw material median method is high, followed by the midstream.
4. Cycle rotation: the Pringle cycle turns to stages 1 and 2. Bonds, stocks, downstream and midstream, and small cap growth is dominant.
5. According to the unanimous prediction of the companies covered by analysts, the sector level: the growth rate of support services, midstream manufacturing and downstream consumption is prominent in 2022, and the valuation quantile of support services and midstream manufacturing is relatively lower; The growth rate of upstream raw materials and financial housing construction is relatively backward, and the valuation quantiles are also in the range of 0 ~ 10%. Expected valuation at the industry level: 1) 50% growth rate + restoration of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery performance, with a valuation score of more than 40%, social services of only 16%, and restoration of public utilities, transportation, commerce and retail; 2) The growth rate is 35% ~ 50% - less than 10% for power equipment, national defense and military industry and non-ferrous metals, 18% for beauty care and more than 50% for cars; 3) The industries with a growth rate of 20% ~ 35% - the industries with a valuation quantile below 10% include communication, electronics, mechanical equipment, light industry manufacturing, textile and clothing, environmental protection, computer and basic chemical industry, media, computer and mechanical equipment in the range of 10% ~ 20%, media, textile and clothing, public utilities and beauty care in the range of 20% ~ 50%, and food, beverage and automobile in the range of more than 50%.
6. In January, the supply of micro liquidity exceeded the demand, and the liquidity vortex. Compared with stock + fund: direction of residents' additional allocation - micro liquidity outlook in 2022, capital inflow in January: financing, public offering and north direction are lower than the expected average; In terms of capital outflow: the outflow in January exceeded the expected average. Public offering 2021q4 electronics and military industry led the midstream to surpass the downstream, and the proportion of medical and biological allocation fell sharply. Increase positions in the north, finance and housing construction, and reduce financing holdings in a large area. 7. The valuation of Mao index under the neutral growth path in 2022 is digested below the median; The valuation of Ning index under the pessimistic growth path in 2022 is digested below the median; High dividend strategy as the shield, small cap growth, specializing in special new attacks. In the main range of interest rate decline, the dividend of China Securities outperformed the all a and weight index, and lost 1000. According to the statistics of the main downward ranges of interest rates, it is found that in the range where the long-term interest rate drops sharply, the winning rate of positive return and excess return of CSI dividend index is high. As of February 8, 2022, the interest margin between dividend rate and ten-year Treasury bond yield is 2.59 percentage points, which is at a historical high of 98.9%. The allocation value is improved, and the high dividend strategy is the shield. With the enhancement of broad credit and steady growth signals, interest rates will return to the upside, risk appetite will be repaired, A-Shares are expected to go out of the shock range, return to the upward trend, small cap growth and specialize in special new attacks.
Risk tip: the reference significance of the historical resumption may be limited for the future. The capital market policies have changed beyond expectations, and the macro and micro flows have changed beyond expectations.
