Key investment points:
After a good start, the day wide shock is uncomfortable, but this is what it takes to break the negative feedback. After a good start on the first day of the Chinese New Year in 2022, the impact of the downward superposition of “Yao Ming” event on A-Shares in half a day on the second day of the opening market has been magnified. However, the red turn of Wande a index in the late trading is not only the impact of bank support, but also the rebound of Guozheng 2000 is obvious, and wind shows an increase of 3672, which has an excellent profit-making effect. We believe that the weak opening of A-Shares in the year of the tiger is due to the impact of overseas accidents (tension in Russia and Ukraine) before the Spring Festival, which exacerbated the market panic, stampeded by concentrated risk avoidance before the festival, and negative feedback of liquidity vortex (see “tension in Russia and Ukraine, accelerating the release of panic – how do unexpected factors affect the trend of a shares?”. During the Spring Festival, there was no “black swan”, and the overseas market performed well. The yield of S & P narrowed from more than 10% before the festival to about 6% in 500 years. The disturbance of unexpected events subsided, but the liquidity vortex caused by negative feedback of expectations and transactions due to the rapid decline in the week before the festival needs time to be repaired. The increase of market differences implied by large-scale and wide-ranging shocks and the recovery of liquidity are the experiences needed to break the negative feedback.
The conduction delay will be exhausted, and the rotation has reached a shares. On January 13, we pointed out in “how to understand the recent market driving logic and make stability the most grinding” that the widening gap between M2 and social finance, first, verified that excess liquidity is still accumulating in the financial market; Second, the short-term social finance is less than expected due to the strong supply and weak demand in the structure, the end of the transition period of new asset management regulations and the weak real estate correction policy; Third, the time lag factor of M2 transmission to social finance. From the performance of major categories of assets, the long-term interest rate fell below 2.7%, the convertible bond was strong, and the REITs reached a new high, implying the pursuit of deterministic growth by financial institutions. The performance price ratio of stocks and bonds has been further improved. As the steady growth is more clear, the molecular expectation tends to be stable, and the rotation to A-Shares has more opportunities, and the A-share stable stocks have responded.
Wait for the positive signal to verify. In terms of short-term risk factors, the impact of the U.S. Department of Commerce on China Meheco Group Co.Ltd(600056) company, the unexpected turn of the European Central Bank and the disturbance to the market caused by the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine are being quickly digested. At present, China’s economy is in the stage of Springer countercyclical regulation of stable growth policy and economic bottom. Recently, the national development and Reform Commission has made a voice for stable growth, the Ministry of industry and information technology has adjusted the carbon peak of the iron and steel industry, and the reduction of reserve requirements and interest rates by monetary policy can still be expected. The fiscal policy will also take the lead. The macro policy will actively stabilize growth and hedge the downward pressure of the economy. It is expected that the economic bottom will be found in Q2. The upcoming social finance data and the increase in the rate of return to work (the other side of the weak return data) will become a positive signal of the bottom of the market.
The policy bottom has been found, and the first market bottom may have been proved. On January 23, we pointed out that the general order of the bottom of A-Shares in history is “policy bottom – market bottom / economic bottom”. The end of the policy led the end of the economy, and the lag between the end of the policy and the end of the market was 0-4 months. The end of the market fell by 3.5% – 9.5% compared with the end of the policy, while the end of the market rebounded rapidly, with an increase of 14.3% – 36.6% compared with the end of the policy in 2-5 months. It is expected that the market bottom of this round may appear in January (the last week before the Spring Festival) or around April (the second bottom depends on the economic bottom). The steady growth policy will be further strengthened after the return of February, and the red envelope market can be expected. In March, the market will further observe the steady growth signal of the two sessions and judge the steady growth effect according to the economic data. In April, the market will face a decision: (1) if the economy ends, the market will enter Pringle stage 2 recovery, and the molecular expectation will stabilize. Under double clicking, the market is expected to rise further; (2) If it does not appear, the market is vulnerable to external disturbance, the second bottom is to accumulate power, wait for the confirmation of the economic bottom, and regain the power of action.
Winter goes and spring comes, and everything lives. The red envelope market is after the festival. On January 16, we said, “is there still a” red envelope “market in the Spring Festival?” From 2010 to 2021, the index, industry and style performance in the four weeks before and after the Spring Festival can be summarized as follows: 1. The cyclical trend is obvious, and the red envelopes are mainly after the Spring Festival; 2. Before the Spring Festival, big and small, high and low cut, after the Spring Festival, small cap growth and high P / E ratio are stronger; 3. Banks and household appliances dominated before the Spring Festival, while TMT, electrical equipment and automobiles performed better after the festival.
Risk tip: the effect of steady growth is lower than expected, the epidemic situation repeatedly exceeds expectations, and the tightening of global liquidity exceeds expectations.
