How about social finance data? The total amount stabilized and rebounded, and the loan structure showed that the financing demand of the enterprise sector rebounded
Many investors believe that it is the key to judge the strength of this round of steady growth policies. We have always stressed that when the policy has clearly shifted to steady growth, there is reason to remain optimistic about the monetary and credit data. This release of financial data confirms this view.
1) the year-on-year growth rate of social financing continued to pick up: in January, the increment of social financing scale was 6.17 trillion yuan, creating an all-time high. Social finance recorded a year-on-year growth rate of 10.5%, and has recorded an increase of more than 10% for five consecutive months since September, which began to show a positive signal of recovery. Compared with the same period last year, the new social finance increased by 984.2 billion yuan in January. By item, RMB loans, government bonds and corporate bonds issued to the real economy were the main year-on-year increased contributions.
2) the loan structure of financial institutions shows that the financing demand of enterprises is picking up: we believe that the most positive significance in the loan data is that the enterprise sector added 2.1 trillion medium and long-term loans in January, an increase of 60 billion yuan year-on-year, the first year-on-year increase in six months. With the correction of some early policies and the reduction of policy interest rates by the people's Bank of China, the expectations of enterprises have gradually stabilized. We observed that the demand for medium and long-term loans at the enterprise end has also begun to pick up.
3) the credit structure of financial institutions has changed. Without significant growth in real estate loans, we can still expect strong growth in social finance credit data: it can be seen that through the rapid growth in recent years, Inclusive Finance and green loans have become one of the most important investment directions for new loans of financial institutions. The social finance in January once again proved that in the absence of significant growth in real estate loans, we can still expect strong growth in social finance credit data.
How to predict the 2022 social finance data? Policies encourage credit expansion
1) the current credit characteristics are similar to those in early 2019, and the policy encourages credit expansion. Regardless of the central economic work conference held in the previous year or the concerns expressed by the leadership of the people's Bank of China about credit growth, we believe that the policy environment in early 2019 is most similar to that at present. Driven by policies, the year-on-year growth rate of social finance rebounded significantly in 2019.
2) update of social finance calculation in 2022: the peak in the year may be 11.5%, and the growth rate is expected to reach 10.7% at the end of the year.
Looking ahead, we believe that the new scale of social finance is expected to reach 33.5 trillion in 2022, and the year-on-year growth rate of social finance balance is expected to reach 10.7% by the end of 2022. RMB loans with social finance caliber are expected to reach the annual level of about 22 trillion in 2022, an increase of about 2 trillion year-on-year compared with 19.95 trillion in 2021. According to the characteristics of this year's fiscal front, the year-on-year growth peak of social finance appeared around the third quarter, and the growth rate is expected to record 11.5%.
Risk warning: changes in economic fundamentals exceed expectations; Monetary policy exceeded expectations.
