Core conclusion
On February 11, 2022, the people's Bank of China issued the monetary policy implementation report for the fourth quarter of 2021
As for the macro-economy, in addition to maintaining the "triple pressure of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectation" mentioned at the central economic work conference, the external environment is also analyzed: the epidemic situation, inflation and monetary policy adjustment of developed economies are still the three uncertainties of the global economy.
On monetary policy, "prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, strengthen cross cycle regulation, give full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, pay attention to sufficient, accurate and forward force, not only do not engage in" flood irrigation ", but also meet the reasonable and effective financing needs of the real economy, and strive to increase financial support for key areas and weak links, Achieve a better combination of stable total amount and excellent structure. " The description is similar to that of the previous period. With the release of social finance data in January, the effect of monetary policy in the early stage is emerging. If the financial data continue to improve, the need for aggregate monetary policy tools will decline. However, we believe that structural monetary policy instruments will continue to play an important role, that is, 2022 should see the use of various refinancing instruments reach a new high.
As for the macro leverage ratio, according to the statistics of the people's Bank of China, China's macro leverage ratio was 272.5% at the end of 2021, 7.7 percentage points lower than that at the end of the previous year, and decreased in five quarters. Remarkable results were achieved in stabilizing leverage. According to historical experience, the macro leverage ratio will rise periodically in the stage of steady growth. The decline of macro leverage ratio in 2021 creates policy space for 2022.
With regard to real estate, "real estate is not fried" and insisting on not using real estate as a short-term means to stimulate the economy is still a clear bottom line of the policy. According to the data disclosed by the people's Bank of China, the interest rate of individual housing loans in the fourth quarter was 5.63%, up 9 BP month on month. Personal housing loans increased by 3.8 trillion yuan in 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 500 billion yuan. Through high-frequency data tracking, real estate sales still need to be improved. However, the January data once again proved that in the absence of significant growth in real estate loans, we can still expect strong growth in social finance credit data.
On inflation, the central bank believes that "inflation pressure is generally controllable", and as a producer country, it has strong economic self-sufficiency, which is conducive to dealing with imported inflation. This means that when some overseas developed economies are forced to tighten monetary policy due to inflation this year, the monetary policy of the people's Bank of China should not be constrained by inflation.
Risk tip: the central bank's monetary policy exceeded expectations; The decline of real estate exceeded expectations; Monetary policy tightening of overseas central banks exceeded expectations
