Core conclusion
Market since the beginning of the year: three main lines of "steady growth"; Index "de Ninghua" process. 1) Since the beginning of the year, the three main lines of steady growth have absolute benefits: real estate, infrastructure and epidemic prevention. 2) "De Ninghua" has been another feature of the market since the beginning of the year. The higher the "content of tannin", the greater the decline of the index. In addition, since the end of last year, there has been absolute return on the part excluding "Ning" in Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, relative return on the part excluding "Ning" in gem, relative loss on the part including "Ning" in Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and Shanghai and Shenzhen 300, and absolute loss on the part including "Ning" in gem index, China Securities 1000 and China Securities 500 index.
What does the extreme interpretation of "steady growth" and "de Ninghua" market reflect? 1) The marginal reversal of new energy policy dividend, from ensuring supply and stabilizing price to correcting double carbon deviation, and then to delaying the carbon peak in the iron and steel industry; 2) Last year, "three people" bought new energy: bottom-up track investors, top-down timing investors worried about the old economy and group investors. Under the background of steady growth policy at the end of last year, the second person switched positions and the third person wavered. 3) China's asset price revaluation under the rapid rise in the expectation of interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. 4) The fluctuation of China's credit expectation also interferes with asset valuation.
When will the steady growth and "de Ninghua" market end? 1) "Steady growth" market may be difficult to go too far. The two main lines of infrastructure construction and epidemic prevention reversal appeared in March, and the probability of profit taking market is not low, and the main line of real estate may last longer. 2) The "de Ninghua" process may not have been completed, but the "de Ninghua" of gem and SSE 50 is relatively sufficient. At present, the Ning content of gem and SSE 50 has dropped to the level of January 2021, and the Ning content of other indexes has dropped to the level of June July 2021. On the whole, the "de Ninghua" of gem and SSE 50 is relatively sufficient, but the "de Ninghua" process of most A-share indexes may not be over. Of course, it is difficult to determine whether the subsequent "de Ninghua" process is completed through the decline of "Ninghua part" or driven by the rise of "Ninghua part".
Q2 equity market may face valuation repair, and the gem is expected to win at this stage. 1) Two internal causes: "de Ninghua" is completed; Q2 economy was relatively weak, and the end of the rebound of risk-free interest rate helped the valuation repair. 2) Two external factors: in March, Europe and the United States may return to the pre epidemic state, with sufficient expectations such as superposition and contraction, and the upward slope of 10-year US bond yield eased; The market panic of the US Federal Reserve's Q1 interest rate hike is expected to ease, and the rebound of US stocks led to the stop and stabilization of the subject matter of China's relevant industrial chain.
Q3 should pay attention to the upward risk of CPI, and mass consumption may be the first choice. Since the beginning of the year, the oil price and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price have greatly exceeded our previous expectations. There is a high possibility of lard and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) resonance in China in the second half of the year. Furthermore, Q3 China's CPI may break 3% year-on-year or have a high probability. Once so, the main line of entering the Q3 equity market will shift from valuation repair to downstream consumption, in which mass consumption may be more concerned.
Risk tip: China's economic fundamentals are less than expected; China's monetary and fiscal policy is less than expected; The Fed's monetary policy exceeded expectations.
