Matters:
At 19:33 on February 11, the central bank released the monetary policy implementation report for the fourth quarter of 2021.
Comments:
In the fourth quarter, China's economy recovered and stabilized. At present, China's economic development is facing the triple pressure of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation. Monetary policy will be more active, pay attention to full, accurate and forward force, and strive to stabilize the macro-economic market.
Economic development faces triple pressures, for which we should not only face up to difficulties, but also strengthen confidence
In 2021, China's economic development maintained a leading position in the world, and the economy recovered and stabilized in the fourth quarter. At present, China's economic development is facing the triple pressure of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation, and the external environment is becoming more severe and uncertain.
Description of China's current economy: in 2021, China maintained a global leading position in economic development and epidemic prevention and control, and achieved an optimized combination of higher growth, lower inflation and more employment. In the fourth quarter, China's economy recovered and stabilized, with GDP growing by 4.0% year-on-year and an average growth of 5.2% in two years, up 0.3 percentage points from the third quarter. China is a large economy with strong resilience. The fundamentals of long-term economic improvement have not changed, and the favorable conditions for building a new development pattern have not changed. It should also be noted that China's economic development is facing the triple pressure of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectations, and the external environment is becoming more severe and uncertain.
Judgment on foreign economies: disturbed by the rebound of the epidemic, the global economic recovery has slowed down since the second half of 2021, the bottleneck of the supply chain has not been fundamentally alleviated, the overseas inflationary pressure has increased, and there have been structural changes in the labor market of developed economies. Looking forward to the future, there are still great uncertainties in the epidemic situation, inflation trend and macro policy adjustment of developed economies, and the possible associated economic and financial risks can not be ignored.
Judging from China's future economic situation: China's economy is facing downward pressure, repeated epidemics still inhibit consumer demand, investment in some fields is still bottoming out, and medium - and long-term challenges such as potential economic growth, population growth slowdown and low-carbon transformation can not be ignored. In this regard, we should not only face up to the difficulties, but also strengthen our confidence. The fundamentals of China's long-term economic improvement have not changed, and the favorable conditions for building a new development pattern have not changed. We should focus on doing our own things well and strive to achieve high-quality development.
Description and judgment of China's inflation situation: inflation pressure is generally controllable. The annual average of China's CPI in 2021 was 0.9%. In the future, the CPI operation center may rise slightly over the previous year and continue to operate within a reasonable range. At the same time, the year-on-year increase of PPI fell after periodic rise. In the future, the gap between supply and demand of the global economy is expected to close, and the high base effect is gradually emerging. It is expected that the year-on-year increase of China's PPI in 2022 will continue to decline.
The change points of monetary policy ideas in the next stage: "actively implement the spirit of the central economic work conference", "strengthen cross cycle regulation" and "guide financial institutions to effectively expand loan lending"
Summary of the thinking of monetary policy in 2021: "the monetary policy in 2021 reflects the requirements of flexibility, accuracy, rationality and moderation, and further improves its foresight, stability, pertinence, effectiveness and autonomy. The main financial indicators continue to grow strongly on the basis of the high base in 2020, and the financial support to the real economy is stable."
Outlook for the next stage of monetary policy ideas: "adhere to the principle of stability and seek progress in stability, actively implement the spirit of the central economic work conference, increase financial support for the real economy, continue to do a good job in the" six stabilities "and" six guarantees ", and create a suitable monetary and financial environment to maintain economic operation within a reasonable range. A prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, strengthen cross cycle regulation, give full play to the dual functions of the total amount and structure of monetary policy tools, pay attention to full, accurate and forward force, not only do not engage in "flood irrigation", but also meet the reasonable and effective financing needs of the real economy, and strive to increase financial support for key areas and weak links to achieve total stability Better combination with excellent structure. "
Then, compared with the third quarter monetary policy implementation report, the changes in the thinking of monetary policy in the next stage mentioned this time include:
(1) emphasize "actively implement the spirit of the central economic work conference";
(2) add "guide financial institutions to effectively expand loan supply";
(3) mentioned "strive to stabilize the macro-economic market, promote economic stability and long-term development, and welcome the victory of the 20th CPC National Congress";
We believe that compared with the setting tone of the third quarter monetary policy implementation report, the current monetary policy is more active and has repeatedly proposed "increasing", including "increasing cross cycle regulation" and "increasing financial support for the real economy". In addition, the first half of 2022 is an important time point for monetary policy.
Other highlights
1. In column 1 "influencing factors of liquidity in the banking system and liquidity management of the central bank", it is proposed that when analyzing the liquidity situation of the banking system, we should focus on the overall framework of liquidity management of the central bank rather than local factors, and some short-term and long-term influencing factors cannot be simply added to calculate the liquidity surplus and deficiency, Moreover, the maturity of monetary policy instruments cannot be regarded as a factor affecting the liquidity of the banking system, and the degree of liquidity tightness can be judged. In fact, under the current liquidity management framework, the central bank operates against the market interest rate. No matter how various factors affecting the liquidity of the banking system change, the central bank will flexibly use a variety of monetary policy tools to respond in time and maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity. For the maturity of monetary policy instruments, the central bank will scientifically arrange the maturity rhythm, carry out cross cyclical liquidity management, judge the situation and appropriately continue some maturity instruments according to the regulatory needs, so as to fully meet the reasonable liquidity needs of the market.
Comments: the liquidity analysis of the banking system should focus on the overall situation.
2. Column 1 "influencing factors of liquidity in the banking system and liquidity management of the central bank" also mentioned that from the perspective of the market, the most intuitive, accurate and timely indicator to observe the degree of liquidity tightness is the market interest rate. To judge the attitude of monetary policy, we should also focus on policy interest rates such as open market operation interest rate and MLF interest rate, And the overall operation of the market interest rate over a period of time, rather than paying too much attention to quantitative indicators such as the amount of liquidity and the scale of open market operation.
Comments: interest rate, not quantity, is the main indicator to observe liquidity and monetary policy posture.
3. In column 2 "enhancing the stability of total credit growth", it is mentioned that we should coordinate and do a good job in the connection of Cross Annual policies, guide financial institutions to increase their support for the real economy, strive to enhance the stability of total credit growth and maintain the economic operation in a reasonable range.
Comments: the central bank intended to increase the volume of monetary and credit data in January.
4. Column 3 "China's macro leverage ratio remains basically stable" mentioned that since the epidemic, China has supported the rapid recovery of economic growth with relatively small new debt, and the growth rate of macro leverage ratio is not high compared with other major economies.
Comments: China's epidemic prevention and control is effective, and its macro policies are more effective.
In terms of data, the excess reserve ratio has increased, the loan weighted interest rate has reached a new low, and the unemployment rate is generally stable
1. Interbank liquidity is reasonable and abundant. At the end of December, the excess reserve ratio of financial institutions was 2.0%, down 0.2 percentage points from the same period last year and 0.6 percentage points higher than that at the end of September. The absolute level is still at the medium level in the same period in recent years.
2. The overall employment situation is stable. At the end of December, the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from the same period of last year and up 0.3 percentage points from the third quarter;
3. The weighted average interest rate of general loans in December was 4.76%, down 24bp from September. Among them, the weighted average interest rate of general loans was 5.19%, down 11bp from September; Bill financing was 2.18%, down 47bp from September; Personal housing loans were 5.63%, up 9bp from September. In addition, in general loans in December, the proportion of loans with interest rate higher than LPR was 67.75%, the proportion of loans with interest rate equal to LPR was 6.98%, and the proportion of loans with interest rate lower than LPR was 25.27%. The overall reduction range of loan interest rate increased significantly compared with September.
Risk tip: China's epidemic situation has been disturbed repeatedly and consumption has weakened.
