This paper provides the starting point of asset allocation under the "vacuum period" of most macro data from January to February
We put forward four perspectives to observe the asset allocation under the "vacuum period" of the opening year data. The conclusions are as follows: (1) the significance of financial data and monetary conditions to the bond market is stronger than that of the stock market. There is no risk of liquidity in both narrow and broad sense at the beginning of this year; (2) After excluding the seasonal influence, the high-frequency index can track the direction of fundamental changes, which has a certain reference value for stock timing. At the beginning of this year, the high-frequency index from the industry did not show a disadvantage compared with the same period in previous years; (3) The guidance effect of alternative data and BCI index on stocks is stronger than that of bond market, and the accuracy of alternative data is better. BCI index and alternative index reveal that the business boom in the beginning of the year is weak, and the boom of high-end manufacturing and traditional manufacturing industries is not strong. Maybe it can explain the poor performance of the overvalued sector in the beginning of the year to a certain extent. This system can be closely tracked before the data is released in mid March, and the asset allocation should be more critical than the prediction.
Idea 1: find the perception of financial data and monetary environment (direction at the beginning of the year: +)
In the first two months of official data, financial data are of high quality from the perspective of statistical sources, overall and structure. Since the beginning of last year was also a "Tianliang social finance", the "year-on-year increase" of new social finance and new credit is not a good observation method. Considering the comparison of the same dimension from financing to economic growth and profit growth, we suggest to take credit pulse. The index has rebounded for three consecutive months. The marginal increase in the rebound rate in January points to the stronger year-on-year growth of enterprise profits at the beginning of the year. At the beginning of the year, the market was worried about "steady growth" and "broad credit". The latter was no longer worried. The former widened the margin of liquidity environment in January according to Guoxin monetary condition index, and the effect of interest rate cut before the holiday was fulfilled, which also reflected the release of bad mood. However, on the first trading day after the release of the "Tianliang social finance" data, the stock market still opened high and went low. The market is still hesitant to see the driving force of steady growth from bottom to top, which depends on the extraction of high-frequency data.
Idea 2: high frequency data to see clues (+)
Referring to Guoxin macro high-frequency diffusion index, the performance at the beginning of the year can be summarized as follows: the absolute level is not strong, but it is not weak after excluding seasonality. (1) According to the Gregorian calendar date: if the data of each year is set as 100, the decline of data at the beginning of the calendar year is a normal seasonal phenomenon. The difference between the decline range in the first five weeks of this year and the historical average level is very small, within 0.2 percentage points. (2) If we look at the lunar new year, the week of the Spring Festival holiday of returning home and stopping work is the low point of the weak performance of the real economic data in the year. The Spring Festival is earlier this year, and the weakening range of the economic data in the four weeks before the Spring Festival is not different from the average of the previous years. In the follow-up, the economic data will improve under the effect of normal resumption of work and production after the festival. According to the splitting of 2022 high-frequency data, the operating rate of coking enterprises and PTA output are stronger against the trend for China's indicators, which will help the high-frequency diffusion index under the repeated epidemic situation in some areas at the beginning of this year.
Idea 3: track alternative data (-)
The alternative index of JT square intelligent management includes infrastructure, traditional manufacturing, durable goods consumption, high-end manufacturing and other fields, covering the context of new and old economies. We judge the overall prosperity direction by observing the proportion of good and bad alternative data at the beginning of the year. January 2019 and 2021 are judged as good economic boom, while 2020 and 2022 are classified as weak years. Compared with the asset price side, the market trend is basically consistent with the performance in January of the past four years, but the matching effect of alternative data on the trend of the bond market is slightly weak.
Idea 4: configure (-) based on survey data
The first main line is to focus on the manufacturing PMI. In the case of differentiation between the official caliber and Caixin caliber at the beginning of this year, the guidance of PMI on the allocation of shares and bonds is weaker than that in previous years. The second main line is to observe BCI indicators. At the beginning of this year, both the trend of the general index and the structural game of sub index have the advantage of negative feedback, which represents the lack of confidence in the business field and is close to the overall performance of the stock market at the beginning of this year.
Risk tip: the global supply bottleneck has not been alleviated, and overseas countries have not yet got rid of the impact of the epidemic
