Epidemic situation: China is stable and foreign countries are easing. As of February 18, the average daily number of newly confirmed cases in China in the past week was 48; The world's latest daily average of more than 1.76 million new cases were diagnosed. Real economy - upstream: most of the prices of resource products went down, and the price of iron ore fell significantly. OPEC package crude oil prices rose 1.2% month on month to US $94.0/barrel; The average price of main coking coal decreased by 3.7% month on month to 2218 yuan / ton; The market price of Qinhuangdao thermal coal (q5500) decreased by 1.0% month on month to 1000 yuan / ton; Iron ore prices fell 10.8% month on month to 914.9 yuan / ton; LME copper spot price fell 0.2% month on month to US $10015 / ton, and LME aluminum spot price rose 3.6% month on month to US $3314 / ton.
Real economy - midstream: except for coal consumption, the overall production is weak, and the price of industrial products is down.
This week, the coal consumption of 8 coastal provinces increased by 25.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate changed from negative to positive, mainly due to the dislocation of the Spring Festival, with a year-on-year increase of 6.1% compared with the same period of the lunar calendar; The operating rate of Tangshan blast furnace decreased by 45.9% year-on-year, expanding the decline; The operating rate of petroleum asphalt plant decreased by 31.9% year-on-year, and the decline narrowed; PTA operating rate decreased by 11.7% year-on-year, and the decline was expanded; The operating rate of automobile semi steel tire increased by 82.2% year-on-year, and the growth rate changed from negative to positive, but it decreased by 33.8% year-on-year compared with the same period of the lunar calendar. China's steel price index fell 0.9% month on month; PTA price index fell 3.2% month on month; The cement price index decreased by 0.7% month on month; The price of float flat glass has not been updated.
Real economy - downstream: real estate sales weakened and freight rates changed from rise to fall. Over the past two weeks, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium-sized cities in China has increased by 28.3% year-on-year, which is greatly affected by the dislocation of the Spring Festival, with a year-on-year decrease of 40.0% compared with the same period of the lunar calendar, and the decline has expanded; The land transaction area of Baicheng rose, lower than that of the same period of last year; The land premium rate decreased, lower than that in the same period of last year; The average daily sales volume of passenger cars (the first two weeks of February) was lower than that of the same period of last year; China's export container freight index (CCFI) fell 2.4% month on month, China's import dry bulk freight index (CDFI) fell 3.3% month on month, and South Korea's exports fell 12.6% year-on-year in the first 10 days of February, weakening the trend.
Food prices: the prices of meat, eggs, vegetables and fruits are all down, the staple food is stable, and the oil is up. Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) the wholesale price index fell 3.2% month on month; Pork prices fell 5.6% month on month; Chicken prices fell 1.9% month on month and egg prices fell 3.8% month on month; Vegetable prices fell by 3.5% month on month; Fruit prices fell by 1.1% month on month; The prices of middle and late rice in the main grain were flat month on month, corn prices rose by 0.1% month on month, and wheat prices rose by 0.3% month on month; Soybean prices were flat month on month, while soybean oil prices rose by 1.9% month on month.
Financial environment: money market interest rates are rising, and the yields of China US Treasury bonds are divided. In the money market, R007 and dr007 rose 13bps and 11bps respectively; The issuing interest rate of interbank certificates of deposit rose 5bps month on month. In the bond market, the yield to maturity (1 year / 5 years / 10 years) of Chinese bonds and government bonds rose by 6bps / 1bps / 1bps respectively; The 5-year yield to maturity (AA / AAA) of China national debt corporate bonds increased by 4bps / 6bps respectively month on month; The credit rating interest margin decreased by 2bps month on month; The yield to maturity of US bonds (1 year / 5 years / 10 years) decreased by 4bps / 2bps / 0bps respectively.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation is repeated and the external environment is more uncertain.
