Weekly observation: the economy continues to recover, and PPI may turn positive month on month in February
As of February 18, 2022, Guoxin high frequency macro diffusion index a was -0.1, index B recorded 109.8 and Index C recorded - 0.8% (+ 0.0pct.). Among the seven sub items of the indicators, the operating rate of all steel tires, the output of rebar and the transaction area of commercial houses in 30 large and medium-sized cities increased compared with last week; The operating rate of coking enterprises, PTA output, cement price and comprehensive index of building materials decreased compared with last week.
This week, index a turned negative and index B fell slightly, but the overall index value is still higher than the historical average, and the trend of China's economic recovery remains unchanged.
Weekly price high frequency tracking:
(1) food prices continued to fall this week, while non food prices continued to rise. In February 2022, food prices may still be lower than the seasonality, and non food prices may be significantly higher than the seasonality. It is estimated that in February, CPI food chain ratio was about 1.5%, CPI non food chain ratio was about 0.5%, and CPI overall chain ratio was about 0.7%. In February this year, CPI rose to 1.0% year-on-year or slightly.
(2) the price of means of production in the circulation field continued to rise in the middle and late January, which brought a large positive month ending in February. Considering that the current trend of China's economic recovery remains unchanged, and the means of production in the subsequent circulation field is easy to rise but difficult to fall, it is expected that the PPI in February will turn positive month on month, but driven by the high base, the PPI in February may continue to fall to 8.6% year-on-year.
Risk tips: the recovery of China's infrastructure and real estate is less than expected, the repeated negative impact of the epidemic on the world economy, the rise of production costs of downstream enterprises caused by the rise of global commodity prices again, and the reduction of debt purchase by the United States has dragged down global liquidity.
