In terms of the external environment, in terms of the epidemic situation, the number of new cases per day in the world continues to decline, and the signs of covid-19 “influenza” treatment in some countries are becoming more and more obvious. In terms of economy, the PMI indexes of Markit manufacturing and service industries in the United States rebounded in February, and the support of the evolution of economic situation for interest rate hike was further strengthened; At the same time, the economy of the euro zone also benefited from the service industry and generally improved. Although the manufacturing PMI index fell slightly in February, the service PMI index improved significantly and led the comprehensive PMI index to rise to 55.8 higher than expected.
In terms of China’s environment, real estate sales are still weak. The Ministry of housing and urban rural development held a press conference to continue to emphasize “ensuring delivery of buildings, people’s livelihood and stability”, which will become an important part of stabilizing real estate investment. At the same time, affordable housing construction, urban old community transformation and new urban construction will also help to hedge the drag of poor real estate sales on investment; The acceleration of infrastructure investment is on the way. New orders signed by China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) and other construction enterprises continued to grow in January, indicating the stabilization and recovery of the growth rate of infrastructure investment during the year. Overall, steady growth is still an important work of the current economy. Although monetary regulation provides a good environment for credit easing, only greater actions of fiscal policy can promote credit easing, especially the improvement of social finance and credit structure.
In terms of high-frequency data, in the downstream, real estate transactions continued to rise, but weaker than the historical level in the same period, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) wholesale price 200 index continued to decline. In the middle reaches, steel prices fell slightly and cement prices continued to decline. On the upstream side, coal prices generally strengthened, coke and coking coal prices rose significantly, non-ferrous metals fluctuated in a narrow range, precious metals prices rose significantly, and crude oil prices reached a new high.
Risk tip: the development of the international epidemic exceeded expectations
