Looking back on Thursday's A-share market, under the influence of overseas conflicts, the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened low across the board, and the intraday index always operated in a green disk. In the afternoon, it plunged in a straight line and fell continuously. The overall performance of A-shares was weak at a glance.
As mentioned in Central China Securities Co.Ltd(601375) , the trading volume of the two cities exceeded 1.36 trillion yuan on Thursday, and the signs of off-site capital absorption were more significant, and the Shanghai index gained strong support near 3400 points. the current external situation is still complicated. Before the influencing factors are further clarified, investors are advised to see more and move less . It is expected that the short-term inertia of the Shanghai index is more likely to go down, and the short-term shock consolidation of the gem is more likely. Investors are advised to wait and see for a while in the short term and continue to pay attention to the investment opportunities of undervalued blue chips in the middle line.
From a technical perspective, Dongguan securities mentioned that on Thursday, the three major A-share indexes fluctuated downward in large quantities, the individual stock sector generally fell, the risk aversion increased, and the northward capital showed a net outflow trend, the short-term market was subject to external disturbance factors, or there were still repeated shocks, waiting for the market to stabilize, paying attention to the external geopolitical changes . In terms of operation, it is recommended to pay attention to finance, petroleum, petrochemical Construction materials, steel and other industries.
Shenwan Hongyuan Group Co.Ltd(000166) pointed out that under the environment of severe fluctuations in the global market, the A-share market fell back and bottomed again. Although the short-term performance was weak, the Shanghai composite index did not change the pattern of shock bottoming; While in the stage of adjusting the low volume, it will help to accelerate the release of the momentum of position reduction , and the concentrated change of hands between long and short will also lay the foundation for the index to form a low transaction intensive area again.
As for the future market, for the analysis of the impact of war on the stock market , Xing Zheng Zhang Yidong (global strategy) team said that first, regional geographical conflicts or wars tend to gradually weaken into indirect effects, which work through fundamentals, such as affecting energy prices and inflation, and then affect economic growth and macro policies. In short, fundamentals are the medium-term variables that affect the stock market.
Secondly, for the medium-term impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, we will closely track the price change trend of energy, non-ferrous metals and other bulk commodities such as oil and natural gas, as well as the price change of grain Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) , so as to measure the inflation level of the United States and Europe, predict the monetary policies of Europe and the United States, and their impact on China's economy and RMB exchange rate. At present, the previous judgment is still maintained. At least in the first half of this year, high inflation in the United States has high viscosity.
The agency further analyzed that in the short term, before the cease-fire of military conflict, the risk aversion in the global market still has inertia and can be based on the defense of risk averse assets, including natural gas, oil, military industry, gold, US debt, US dollar, etc. in the medium and long term, allocate China's high-quality assets on bargain hunting with compassion. At present, the high-quality assets of A-Shares and Hong Kong shares do not have systemic risks .
Soochow Securities Co.Ltd(601555) believes that it may continue to weaken in the short term, but the overall downward space is expected to be relatively limited, the follow-up market may produce a more obvious value investment range . In terms of operation, investors can choose the wait-and-see strategy in the short term, and choose the varieties whose overall business is relatively stable and killed by the market in this round of decline. They can wait patiently for the spontaneous stabilization of the market before making layout.
On the macro level, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) said that the negative effects brought by geopolitical risks may not be exhausted . On the one hand, it stems from the important strategic position of Ukraine, on the other hand, it is mainly due to structural problems in Europe, America and Russia, both economically and politically. The war between Russia and Ukraine on the 24th showed an obvious "one-sided". Although the probability of sending troops from the European Union and the United States is small, the subsequent financial sanctions against Russia may be strengthened, and the game will continue. The key to the problem may be energy. On the one hand, under the background of high inflation, the importance of energy strategy for Europe and the United States is further strengthened, On the other side is the game between the post epidemic economic recovery of Russia, a major energy exporter, and the interests of China.
Therefore, Shanxi Securities Co.Ltd(002500) believes that the problems between Russia and Ukraine will continue to recur. Under the complex background of the current serious epidemic, strong supply chain constraints, high debt of overseas countries and high global asset prices, must be vigilant against the negative impact of the resulting spillover effect on the global financial environment .
In terms of the research and judgment of the general trend of a shares, the agency further analyzed that the market's preference for risk assets may be reduced in the short term, the market sentiment will touch the freezing point again, the action force on the trend is very limited, and the volatile market will continue. It is suggested to maintain the defense strategy at this stage, pay attention to sectors that are expected to strengthen under geographical conflicts, such as energy and nonferrous metals, as well as sectors that are both defensive and valuation guarantee, such as national defense and military industry, and pay close attention to the marginal changes of the situation, under the medium-term gradual return to China's industrial logic, conceptual sectors such as new infrastructure and clean energy that are expected to maintain a high boom .
In terms of operation strategy, Caitong Securities Co.Ltd(601108) indicates that it is recommended to see more and move less, and balance the configuration. during the policy expectation period of China's two sessions, the verification period of economic data, the landing period of the Federal Reserve's interest rate discussion in March and the fermentation period of Russia Ukraine conflict, the overall market has many disturbing factors, repeated emotions and large fluctuations. The following three situations are interpreted and observed, and the critical time period of market change is :
For the global economy, if the price of crude oil continues to rise for a long time than expected, the price of crude oil may rise further than that of the developed economy, Some caution may be required. Then investment opportunities such as gold, oil chain and grain can be focused.
scenario 2: after the short-term impact, due to the economic uncertainty, the Federal Reserve made a statement in mid March to guide the market expectation that the pace of interest rate hike and table contraction will slow down, and the impact of upward interest rate on high valuation will be weakened, so the growth direction of science and technology that has fallen more in the early stage may usher in a rebound opportunity.
scenario 3: after the impact of the "event", the external uncertainty remains, the disturbance of raising interest rates and shrinking tables continues, and the market returns to China's main focus, focusing on the main line of steady growth and the policies of the two sessions. The direction of high dividends can be considered from the perspective of defense, or the deterministic direction of "big finance" (real estate chain and bank) supported by fundamentals + policies.
In addition, the Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) mentioned that the geo risk between Russia and Ukraine strengthens the "supply and demand gap" of global resources / raw materials. We transfer them into a combination to maintain a balanced allocation of high area and low area: first, the resource / material (coal / aluminum / potash) benefited from the inflation logic of "supply and demand gap"; Second, the intersection of "steady growth" and "double carbon new cycle" in low-carbon areas (real estate / building materials / coal chemical industry); Third, the technology track stocks gradually agreed by PEG (new energy vehicle / wind power photovoltaic / digital economy) .
