Macro categories:
Recently, the big business exchange, the previous period exchange and Shanghai Datun Energy Resources Co.Ltd(600508) center have issued announcements to remind market participants to be vigilant against the risk of commodity price fluctuations. Recently, the risk of commodity price fluctuation is indeed high. On the one hand, the national development and Reform Commission firmly implements the guarantee of supply and stable price of bulk commodity prices, on the other hand, energy chain commodities are more dependent on the progress of the situation in Ukraine and Russia.
Last week, the US tightening expectation did not usher in more signals, and the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting in January fully met expectations. Looking back on the last round of interest rate hike cycle, in the game stage of interest rate hike expectation (the first interest rate hike – the landing of interest rate hike), the strength of interest rate hike expectation is accompanied by the strength of US dollar index, and the emerging market stock index, gold, crude oil and CRB composite index are adjusted (at least the rise and fall performance at the monthly level). After the fact of raising interest rates, the US bond interest rate trend rose, the US dollar index peaked and fell, and the emerging market stock index and bulk commodities stabilized and rebounded. The reduction of the balance sheet is obviously bad for financial assets. Since 2007, the balance sheet of the Federal Reserve has a significant correlation with financial assets, a significant positive correlation with US stocks as high as 0.9, a negative correlation with US bond interest rates as high as -0.849, and a certain positive correlation with Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 of 0.68; However, the correlation between the Fed’s balance sheet and commodities was low, recording 0.56.
Finally, China’s steady growth signal continues to strengthen, but at the same time, it also continues to emphasize the guarantee of supply and stable price of bulk commodities. At the micro level, by the end of this week, local special bonds had increased by only 100 billion this month. However, according to our statistics on the issuance plan of local governments, with the two sessions approaching, it is expected to usher in a wave of special bonds this week. In January, the sales of excavators and heavy trucks were still relatively low, and the acquisition of land for commercial housing in China still fell by more than 50% year-on-year in January. A number of forward-looking data show that it still takes time for credit to be transmitted to entities, and there has been a significant cooling across the country recently. Combined with the repeated outbreaks in some regions, it may further delay the transmission of credit. At present, the real estate is still in the bottom grinding stage, and the infrastructure is still in the power storage stage. The power will gradually appear in the future.
Generally speaking, the progress of real estate and infrastructure construction at the micro level is still not ideal. Our short-term strategy of reducing domestic demand industrial products (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal) is neutral; As the two sessions window approaches, and Tianliang social finance supports the enterprise’s profit expectation, we still maintain the view that the shareholding index is bargain hunting and long; Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) the bullish logic based on supply bottleneck and cost transmission is still relatively smooth; At present, the crude oil chain is more dependent on the favorable situation of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, so we need to be vigilant against the adjustment risk of mitigation of subsequent events; In terms of precious metals, as the CPI of the United States hit a new high since the 1980s in January, supported by the logic of overseas stagflation and the risk of conflict between Russia and Ukraine, precious metals maintained the view of bargain hunting and long.
Strategy (strength ranking): Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) (soybean, soybean meal, etc.), bargain hunting and long of precious metals; Industrial products for external demand (crude oil and its cost related chain commodities, new energy non-ferrous metals), and industrial products for domestic demand (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal);
Risk point: geopolitical risk; Global epidemic risk; The deterioration of Sino US relations; The situation in the Taiwan Strait; The situation in Ukraine and Russia.
