Recent news inventory and follow-up prediction of the situation in Russia and Ukraine
In the early morning of February 22, Beijing time, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a presidential decree recognizing the people's Republic of Donetsk and the people's Republic of Lugansk, and signed a treaty of friendship, cooperation and mutual assistance between Russia and the people's Republic of Donetsk and the people's Republic of Lugansk, which once again escalated the geopolitical contradictions between Russia and Ukraine. The United States and Europe made it clear that Russia's behavior has seriously violated the Minsk agreement. On the same day, the EU officially proposed the first round of sanctions against Russia. British Prime Minister Johnson also announced sanctions against five Russian banks. It is expected that the member states represented by the G7 group will speed up the publication of a series of sanctions against Russia in the later stage. On February 23, the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a relevant statement on the decision to withdraw the personnel of Russian diplomatic institutions in Ukraine.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine originates from ethnic issues and historical issues. The ownership of Crimea has become the focus of the contradiction between the two sides. In essence, the continuous squeeze of Russia's living space by NATO's eastward expansion is the fundamental reason for the contradiction. This situation is also the continuation of the geopolitical contest between Asia and Europe. In the long run, the probability of full-scale military conflict in Ukraine is declining. With the dialogue between Russia and major NATO economies such as Germany, France and the UK and the increase of the Ukrainian government's own concerns about the negative effects of comprehensive U.S. control, large-scale military conflict is not in the relevant interests of any party. Therefore, the possibility of Russia Ukraine conflict escalating into war between countries is limited, However, the possibility of armed conflict in some areas cannot be ruled out.
