Combined with the latest trading sentiment tracking, the bottom of market sentiment has been repaired, but the incremental funds are still weak. On the one hand, the market momentum has been repaired, and the number of trend dominated stocks such as new high stocks and MACD strong stocks has risen at the bottom; On the other hand, the capital increment has not been significantly improved. Since February, the issuance of partial share funds has been only 6.9 billion yuan, significantly lower than the same period in previous years. The financing balance has continued to fall, and foreign capital has also been slightly outflow due to overseas influence. Transaction structure, the concentration of transactions and transaction differentiation level to continue the historical center, Baijiu, insurance, Chinese medicine turnover accounted for the majority of the decline, communications terminals, gardens, gold and agricultural transactions accounted for a rise.
1. Transaction structure tracking
1) level of differentiation between rise and fall: the center of rise and fall has dropped in the past Sunday, and the differentiation between February and August has increased. Among them, the median daily rise and fall of individual stocks in recent 5 days, 20 days and 60 days were – 0.07%, – 0.29% and 0% respectively; The Income Differentiation of 28 fell to 19.77%, and the degree of transaction differentiation of 28 rebounded to 22.
2) transaction concentration: the transaction concentration of individual stocks has declined. The transaction proportion of the top 1%, top 5% and top 10% stocks changed by – 0.24%, – 0.07% and 0.02% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles reached 76.1%, 78.6% and 81% respectively. The overall transaction concentration of the industry has declined, among which the proportion of transactions in the top 1%, top 5% and top 10% industries changed by – 0.07%, – 0.17% and – 0.11% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles reached 4.4%, 23.6% and 26% respectively.
3) trading differentiation level: the trading differentiation level of individual stocks has declined. The trading differentiation coefficients of the top 1%, top 5% and top 10% stocks have changed by – 0.29%, – 0.47% and – 0.39% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles have reached 80%, 63.2% and 51.1% respectively. The level of industry transaction differentiation has rebounded. The top 1%, top 5% and top 10% industry transaction differentiation coefficients have changed by – 0.49%, 1.16% and 0.68% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles have reached 64.3%, 65.8% and 63.9% respectively.
2. Market sentiment tracking
1) the 10 day moving average of the price limit ratio of all a rebounded to 4.68, and the turnover rate of all a fell back to 5.61%. 2) The VIX Index rose 0.39 month on month to 27.36. 3) The number of new stocks in the whole a rose month on month, and the number of new low stocks fell month on month: the 10-day moving average of the number of new high stocks on the 60th rose to 141, and the 10-day moving average of the number of new low stocks on the 60th fell to 239; The 10 day moving average of the number of record high stocks rose to 5, and the 10 day moving average of the number of record low stocks fell back to 20. 4) The number of trend dominated stocks rebounded. The proportion of stocks above the 60 day moving average rebounded to 33.05% month on month, hitting a record high in recent January, and the number of stocks fell to 61. 5) The proportion of MACD strong stocks in the whole a market rebounded to 15.87%, and the proportion of weak stocks fell to 25.41%. 6) All a leveraged funds sentiment fell back to 11.03%. 7) The net inflow of foreign trading ma30 rose to 64 million yuan.
3. Micro liquidity tracking
1) monetary tightening: the net recovery of 150 billion yuan, the rise of short-term interest rate, the overall decline of Shibor in each period, the decline of treasury bond interest rate, the rise of credit spread in each period and the appreciation of RMB.
2) capital supply: the newly issued scale of partial equity funds is about 2.732 billion yuan, the share of ETF decreases by 3.862 billion month on month, the net outflow of funds going north is 2.399 billion yuan, and the financing balance increases by 3.328 billion yuan month on month.
3) capital demand: there are 6 new IPOs, the initial financing scale is 6.37 billion yuan, the reduction scale of industrial capital is about 8.942 billion yuan, and there is no new fixed increase refinancing. In addition, the lifting pressure picked up month on month this week, with the lifting scale of about 78.538 billion yuan.
Risk tips: 1. Increased volatility in overseas markets; 2. Macroeconomic fluctuations exceeding expectations; 3. There are some errors in the statistical model.
